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2018

Towards a more resilient euro area

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, June 18, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This volume gathers the contribution made by different experts in the "Future Europe" forum on how to strengthen the economic and monetary Union. These are personal-and diverging-opinions from the different contributors dealing with a broad range of topics such as monetary policy, fiscal policy, systemic risk management, risk sharing and sovereign debt management etc. suggesting different ways and means to solve the current eurozone's problems and difficulties.
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122
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Gas in the European Energy Transition: Challenges and Opportunities

Title Original Language: 
Le gaz dans la Transition Energétique Européenne: Enjeux et Opportunités
Abstract Original Language: 
Les performances environnementales du gaz lui permettent de réduire rapidement et dès maintenant les émissions de CO2 du secteur électrique quand il remplace le charbon, deux fois plus émetteur. Sa flexibilité lui permet aussi de pallier l'intermittence du solaire et de l'éolien, facilitant ainsi le développement des ENRs. Il contribue de même à un approvisionnement électrique fiable et réduit les coûts d'équilibrage du système électrique. Il pourrait aussi être utile pour réduire les émissions des transports routiers et maritimes.
Le gaz a donc toute sa place dans le futur bouquet énergétique européen, a condition de décarboner encore son usage, d'augmenter l'intégration et la compétitivité du marché gazier européen et d'assurer la sécurité d'un approvisionnement qui dépendra de plus de plus des importations extra-européennes.
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Thanks to its environmental performance, gas can help to quickly reduce the CO2 emissions of the electricity production when replacing the twice-as-emitting coal power. Its flexibility also help make up for the intermittence of the sun and wind powers, thus facilitating to the development of the renewable energy production. It similarly contributes to a reliable electricity supply and reduce the balancing cost of the electric system. It could also be used in the near future to reduce the emissions of the road and maritime transportation sectors.
In nutshell, gas could play a key role within the future European Energy Cluster, provided the further decarbonization of it usage, the increase in the integration and competitiveness of the European gas market, and the securing of its supply-which will increasingly depend on extra-European imports.
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90
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Deception operations

Abstract Original Language: 
Souvent assimilées à la ruse et aux stratagèmes, les opérations de déception sont une pratique de guerre à la fois ancienne et méconnue, tant au niveau stratégique que tactique ou opératif. Leurs principaux procédés sont la dissimulation, la simulation ou l'intoxication, qi toutes contribuent à tromper l'ennemi et lui faire croire à ne illusion qui doit causer sa perte. Malgré une efficacité maintes fois démontrée dans l'histoire, cette pratique ne va pas sans poser de dilemmes-d'ordre culturel et éthique mais aussi en matière d'allocation des ressources. Alors que progressent sans cesse dans les armées le développement des réseaux, la numérisation et l'intelligence artificielle, les nouvelles technologies semblent toutefois offrir un terrain fertile à un renouveau des opérations de déception. Bien employées, celles-ci permettraient de nuancer la fin du confort opératif prédit aux forces occidentales et d'éviter l'avènement d'un nouveau blocage tactique.
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, June 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Often associated with cunning and stratagems, deception operations are as old as warfare while frequently neglected, whether at the strategic, tactical or operational levels. Its main methods are concealment, simulation and intoxication, all of which help to deceive the enemy and make him believe in an illusion aimed at causing his loss. Despite its proven effectiveness, this practice is not without cultural, ethical as well as resource allocation dilemmas. Modern armed forces are witnessing the constant upgrading of information networks, digitization and the development of artificial intelligence. These new technologies seem to provide a fertile ground for a renewal of deception operations. If well used, the latter would help mitigate the "end of the operational comfort" (i.e. the end of the material, technological and strategic superiority allowing western powers to deploy their forces without encountering major hindrances nor strong resistance from the enemy) predicted to Western forces and prevent a new tactical blockage.
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Number of pages: 
60
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The rise of offshore wind power in the North Sea

Title Original Language: 
L'essor de l'éolien offshore en Mer du Nord
Abstract Original Language: 
Les acteurs industriels européens ont su préserver le marché de l'éolien offshore pour leurs produit et services. Le savoir-faire ainsi acquis les place en bonne position sur ce marché, dont le potentiel paraît immense. Cependant, la compétition ne fait que débuter et de nombreux groupes extra-européens ont déjà pris des parts dans des projets en Mer du Nord, acquérant à leurs tours les compétences nécessaires pour essaimer sur d'autres rivages.
Autour de la Mer du Nord, les politiques de soutien à ce secteur ont évolué vers des procédures concurrentielles, notamment par des appels d'offre. Jointe à une maîtrise technologique croissante, cette démarche a abouti à une remarquable baisse des coûts pour les projets annoncés après 2018, dans les pays déjà équipés. La compétitivité ainsi accrue de l'éolien offshore offre des perspectives considérables en Mer du Nord. Hélas, elle bute encore sur les coûts d'extension du réseau électrique. A l'heure où chaque Etat mène sa propre politique énergétique, la coordination interétatique est indispensable pour minimiser les coûts d'exploitation de cette ressource.
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, July 16, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Over the past years, European industry players have acquired a significant know-how that they can value on the promising global offshore wind market. Yet, competition is still at an early stage and many non-European stakeholders have taken shares in projects in the North Sea, hoping to gain similar expertise before wandering to other shores. Support policies have recently moved to competitive tenders ad, combined with a growing technological lead, the have contributed to a remarkable fall in prices announced for projects to be commissioned after 2018. Offshore wind represents a strategic opportunity for Europe but requires strong investments in grid infrastructures. While each national government is currently defining its own targets and support schemes, cross-border coordination is imperative to guarantee the integration of massive wind production at minimal cost.
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Number of pages: 
46
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EU agencies on the move: challenges ahead

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
EU agencies are clearly ‘on the move’: they both are increasingly proliferating and obtaining more and more discretionary powers. Yet, both the mushrooming of EU agencies and the increasingly broad powers that are conferred upon them raise questions regarding their constitutionality, their legal basis, the powers that can be delegated to them as well as the very reason for the existence of EU agencies, their independence and accountability. This paper will critically analyse these issues.
It will first discuss the evolution of agencies in the EU’s institutional setting (section 2). Subsequently, it will examine the legal concerns that arise with increased reliance on EU agencies: their position in the
constitutional framework, their legal basis and delegation of powers to them (section 3). It will then examine their independence and accountability (section 4). In conclusion, it will highlight remaining challenges that arise from resorting to EU agencies (section 5).
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54
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The Future of the Economic and Monetary Union

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, June 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
While there is general agreement within the euro zone that further reform is needed, there is however disagreement as to which measures should be implemented. In a nutshell, member states disagree over the balance between risk sharing and risk reduction. Risk reduction proponents place the emphasis on crisis prevention, while those who emphasise risk sharing focus on crisis mitigation. This book represents a concerted effort by four prominent scholars from France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands to summarise the discussion in those countries and analyse in which areas the member states may find common ground to press ahead with reforms. The authors have been asked to provide a background to how the euro has been perceived in their respective countries and identify which EMU reforms would be acceptable in the short- to medium-term perspective.
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Number of pages: 
90
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Europe and the Sahel-Maghreb Crisis

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, March 2, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This report analyses the reasons for European policy-makers coming to perceive the Sahel as a threat to Europe’s own security and stability. It starts by presenting the most recent developments in the Sahel and Maghreb regions in respect of the two most significant threats to European security and stability: trans-national jihadism and cross-border migration. The report provides in-depth analysis of a series of the most important factors that are driving the increases in jihadism and migration, including the persistence of state weakness in the Sahel, the collapse of the state in Libya and the failure of regional collaboration. Furthermore, the report analyses the most significant developments in the international community’s responses to the most recent conflicts and crises in the Sahel and Maghreb, including the foreign policies of France, which remains the single most important foreign actor in the Sahel, the European Union and Denmark. The report closes with a series of suggestions regarding how the European powers, especially Denmark, might adjust their policies in order to increase the likelihood of long-term peace and stability being generated in the region.
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64
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Artificial Intelligence and Labor

Title Original Language: 
Intelligence artificielle et travail
Abstract Original Language: 
La question clé est de savoir si l’intelligence artificielle représente une rupture technologique telle que le travail s’en trouvera transformé de manière brutale, avec des répercussions importantes sur l’emploi, ou si elle s’inscrit dans la continuité des transformations numériques à l’oeuvre depuis plusieurs décennies. Pour tenter d’y répondre et illustrer de façon concrète les enjeux posés par ces mutations annoncées, notre rapport a choisi d’examiner trois secteurs, ceux des transports, de la banque et de la santé, pour esquisser des scénarios de transformation du travail.
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, March 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The key question this report deals with is whether IA is a major technological breakthrough which will radically transform labor and have far-reaching consequences on employment, or just one more IT innovation like the ones we witnessed during the last few decades.
In order to answer this question and concretely illustrate the challenges posed by these foreseeable changes, this report will analyze three different sectors: Transport, Banking and Health. This will help us to draw different scenarios for labor transformation.
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Number of pages: 
90
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The Cost of Non-Europe, Revisited

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, April 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
In this paper we quantify the "Cost of Non-Europe", i.e. the trade-related welfare gains each country member has reaped from the European Union. Thirty years after the terminology of Non-Europe was used to give estimates of the gains from further integration, we use modern versions of the gravity model to estimate the trade creation implied by the EU, and apply those to counterfactual exercises where for instance the EU returns to a "normal'', shallow-type regional agreement, or reverts to WTO rules. Those scenarios are envisioned with or without the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU (Brexit) happening, which points to interesting cross-country differences and potential cascade effects in doing and undoing of trade agreements.
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50
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Surging Liquefied Natural Gas Trade

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Abstract in English: 
A surge in new supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is about to hit the global market over the next several years. LNG export projects already under construction worldwide will add up to 175 billion cubic meters (bcm) of LNG capacity by 2020, mainly from Australia and the United States, and additional projects will move ahead as developers line up more customers.
The rise in LNG supplies will encounter substantially lower gas prices than in recent years and a slowdown in global gas demand, raising questions about the economics of LNG projects. For US exporters, liquefaction and tanker transport will add about $5.30 per million British thermal units (mbtu) in costs for LNG sent to Japan. The cost is similar to liquefy, transport, and regasify LNG sent to Europe, where the cost of regasifying LNG needs to be included to compare its price with pipeline gas.1 With average prices for LNG falling below $8 per mbtu in Japan and even lower in Europe, there is little margin for profit even with Henry Hub prices currently at about $2.40 per mbtu.2 However, LNG exporters are likely to continue selling as long as their variable costs can be covered.
For US exporters, the outlook is more favorable for companies who have concluded a final investment decision to go ahead with an LNG export project. Most of these projects are under construction and have much of their planned output already contracted to sell over twenty years. Most of the US sales will not begin until after the next two years, when demand may be stronger.
The majority of Australia’s projects will already be up and running by 2018 and therefore pose less competition for US exporters seeking to acquire new LNG customers. US projects are also ahead of proposed projects offshore East Africa and in the Eastern Mediterranean, which may not come online until after 2020.
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Number of pages: 
28
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