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2020

Re-launching Transatlantic Partnership 2020 - The Digital Dimension

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Accelerating digital transformation on both sides of the Atlantic and around the world has unquestionably become the single most powerful underlying driver of change across our societies and economies. No community, no sector, no sphere of human endeavour is immune, and there is no opting out. Moreover, we are just at the beginning of the real-world digital revolution. There can therefore be no decisive progress toward a fully functioning XXIst century partnership between the United States and Europe (of the sort first envisioned by TPN 25 years ago) without a common - or at least interoperable - “digital transformation” policy framework.
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13
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Missile Defense 2020: Next Steps for Defending the Homeland

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, April 6, 2017
Abstract in English: 
In policy pronouncements over the last two administrations, the protection of the American homeland was regularly identified as the first priority of U.S. missile defense efforts. Homeland missile defense today is provided by the Ground-based Midcourse Defense program and other elements of the larger Ballistic Missile Defense System. The limited defenses fielded today have advanced considerably since defensive operations began in late 2004, but nevertheless they remain too limited and too modest relative to emerging threats. The Missile Defense Agency’s path to improve the system may require additional effort to stay ahead of even limited missile threats. This report explains how the current system works, as well as current and potential plans to modernize the system, and the authors offer recommendations for future evolution of the system.
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160
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The sharing economy: challenges and outlook

Title Original Language: 
Enjeux et perspectives de la consommation collaborative
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, April 10, 2017
Abstract in English: 
In the broadest sense, the sharing economy may be defined as a community of individuals lending, renting, donating, sharing, swapping and buying goods or services.

There are currently around 300 digital peer-to-peer platforms in France, many of which have an established global presence. This study looks at the state of the sharing economy – from a qualitative and quantitative slant – and analyses supply and demand trends across the following key sectors: travel, transport and storage services, accommodation, entertainment, food, consumer goods, clothing and footwear, domestic services and finance.

The study also considers how traditional players are responding – in some cases to direct competition from the sharing economy – and dissects the positive and negative forces shaping this new phenomenon, touching on aspects such as macroeconomic factors, regulation, new technologies, consumer habits and business model viability.

In addition, the authors outline a series of scenarios depicting what the sharing economy could look like in 2020 – a transition, a partnership between traditional players and new sharing economy protagonists, and an “economic bubble” triggered by unworkable business models. The study concludes with a set of recommendations on ways to foster this emerging trend through policy-making and regulation, focusing on the need to protect consumers, bolster sharing economy initiatives, and create a level playing field.

The service providers behind this study remain exclusively liable for the research methods used, as well as the findings and recommendations detailed in this report.
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336
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Innovative uses of cars and new ways of getting around

Title Original Language: 
Usages novateurs de la voiture et nouvelles mobilités
Abstract Original Language: 
Ce travail se donne pour objectif d’explorer de nouvelles voies d’interprétation de l’émergence et de la transition des transports contemporains vers les nouveaux services de mobilité automobile. Aujourd’hui, les « nouvelles mobilités » font, en effet, figure de « nouvelle frontière » pour une partie du monde politique et intellectuel. Elles sont parées des vertus supposées d’une « croissance verte » qui redonnerait l’avantage aux pays et territoires mis à mal par la mondialisation et ses effets désindustrialisant. Ces nouvelles mobilités permettraient, selon cette croyance, de tourner le dos à un XXe siècle où l’on aurait confondu le progrès avec la croissance infinie d’une production industrielle aussi polluante qu’aliénante pour les consommateurs comme pour les travailleurs. Dans le programme politique qu’elles sous-entendent, ces nouvelles formes de mobilité engageraient les individus à réfléchir de manière plus collective et entrepreneuriale. Elles permettraient de créer de nouveaux besoins et de nouveaux profits dans la droite ligne des grandes thématiques contemporaines que sont le
numérique et l’écologie. Symbole d’une vision « high-tech » de l’écologie, ces nouvelles formes de mobilités tendent à se constituer comme un nouveau paradigme de l’automobile. Celui-ci serait appelé à structurer de nouveaux écosystèmes d’affaires qui permettraient d’amorcer une transition vers « le futur ». Aujourd’hui, on attribue bien volontiers à l’industrie automobile, à ses usines et à ses acteurs, les caractéristiques d’une économie vieillissante et conservatrice, incapable de se recomposer et d’adhérer à ce « nouveau paradigme ». Dans la vision positiviste dominante, l’industrie automobile est d’emblée condamnée. Elle représente une vision passéiste de l’économie et de la société, avec laquelle il est politiquement de plus en plus difficile de s’imposer.

L’idée que nous défendons dans ce rapport est que l’on peut entrevoir la dynamique des nouvelles mobilités et des nouveaux services automobiles à travers un prisme « industrialiste » et écologique, c'est-à-dire, comme un moyen de répondre aux impératifs sociaux et environnementaux auxquels est confrontée la société française ainsi que son industrie. En effet, nous pensons que, plutôt que d’opposer un « ancien » et un « nouveau monde » des mobilités automobiles, il est aujourd’hui indispensable d’identifier et de développer des « ponts » entre l’industrie automobile et les nouveaux services de mobilité aujourd’hui en pleine expansion.

Ce rapport propose d’évaluer les potentialités d’une telle hypothèse et d’identifier des voies de transition vers une massification des nouveaux usages automobiles.
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, February 1, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Usage rather than ownership of vehicles is driving the expansion of car sharing and carpooling, among other new uses. Driven by the digital revolution, these new services are expected to radically transform how we get around, and will change the relationship between the various stakeholders – both newcomers and long-standing players – that contribute to its implementation.

This forward-looking analysis uses a variety of scenarios to examine the economic and environmental gains if such services expand and gain traction across the country. Such a shift would mean an optimised fleet of automobiles that are used more intensively and renewed more often. The study's recommendations call for expanded synergies between stakeholders, with possible public-sector support.

The methodology used, the results obtained and the recommendations are the sole responsibility of the authors of the study, and do not represent the views of the Pipame, the DGE or the other sponsors.
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269
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Building a Transatlantic Digital Marketplace: Twenty Steps Toward 2020

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
Abstract in English: 
The United States and the European Union (EU) have a historic opportunity—perhaps their last—to be leaders in building the digital market of the future. To do so, they must seize the opportunity to create a transatlantic digital single market stretching from Silicon Valley to Tallinn, Estonia. Together, they can give a new burst of energy to a global Internet economy centered on thriving digital commerce, innovation, creativity, online security, and citizens’ rights. The newest report of the Atlantic Council’s Future Europe Initiative, “Building a Transatlantic Digital Marketplace: Twenty Steps Toward 2020,” evaluates the state of play on the most pressing digital policy issues across five interlocking areas, and identifies twenty steps that the United States and the EU can begin to take between now and 2020 to build a transatlantic marketplace, encourage trust, and preserve the Internet as a global commercial commons and a public good.
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Defense Modernization Plans through the 2020s

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Since the enactment of the Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011, much attention has been paid to the near-term effects of budgetary constraints on national defense. What has received less attention are the looming budgetary challenges defense faces beyond the BCA budget caps and the Defense Department’s five-year budget planning horizon. Many weapons programs will be at or near their peak years of funding requirements at roughly the same time in the 2020s, creating a modernization bow wave. Just as a large bow wave slows a ship by diverting its energy, carrying a large modernization bow wave is a drag on defense because it leads to program instability and inefficient procurement practices that weaken the buying power of defense dollars.

This report details the plans for major acquisition programs over the next fifteen years and explores the complicating factors that may make the situation more problematic for policymakers. It analyzes a range of options to mitigate the bow wave, including increasing the budget, cutting additional force structure, and making trades among major acquisition programs. The report finds that while none of the choices available are easy, it provides an opportunity for the new administration taking office in 2017 to better align modernization plans with defense strategy.
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42
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Surging Liquefied Natural Gas Trade

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Abstract in English: 
A surge in new supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is about to hit the global market over the next several years. LNG export projects already under construction worldwide will add up to 175 billion cubic meters (bcm) of LNG capacity by 2020, mainly from Australia and the United States, and additional projects will move ahead as developers line up more customers.
The rise in LNG supplies will encounter substantially lower gas prices than in recent years and a slowdown in global gas demand, raising questions about the economics of LNG projects. For US exporters, liquefaction and tanker transport will add about $5.30 per million British thermal units (mbtu) in costs for LNG sent to Japan. The cost is similar to liquefy, transport, and regasify LNG sent to Europe, where the cost of regasifying LNG needs to be included to compare its price with pipeline gas.1 With average prices for LNG falling below $8 per mbtu in Japan and even lower in Europe, there is little margin for profit even with Henry Hub prices currently at about $2.40 per mbtu.2 However, LNG exporters are likely to continue selling as long as their variable costs can be covered.
For US exporters, the outlook is more favorable for companies who have concluded a final investment decision to go ahead with an LNG export project. Most of these projects are under construction and have much of their planned output already contracted to sell over twenty years. Most of the US sales will not begin until after the next two years, when demand may be stronger.
The majority of Australia’s projects will already be up and running by 2018 and therefore pose less competition for US exporters seeking to acquire new LNG customers. US projects are also ahead of proposed projects offshore East Africa and in the Eastern Mediterranean, which may not come online until after 2020.
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28
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The Future of Cohesion Policy: Report II

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, December 4, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The present Report offers ideas on how to shape the forthcoming period of Community support beyond the year 2020. The analysis builds on the report “The future of Cohesion policy – Report I” which reflected on the challenges and developments at the local and regional level, focusing mainly on the efficiency and effectiveness of implementing Cohesion Policy (CP). The present Report looks at concepts and models of CP (mainly its territorial dimension) and points out the main current challenges that are most likely to shape the future economic, social and territorial structures.

This second Report in the study series offers ideas on the future of CP. It is structured around two main parts, the first on models of growth, cohesion and well-being, and the second on new ideas and choices for EU CP. Thus projections and assumptions – in particular in the third section of the Report – are of a long-term nature. The present Report largely builds on an extensive desk research including a comparative literature review as well as relevant analyses and reports carried out by the authors of this paper. In addition, the analysis is fed by the results of an online survey carried out with stakeholders who took part in the seminars on the future of CP. Finally, independent interviews were carried out with relevant stakeholders with deep insight and considerable experience in the field of CP.
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Japan's Security Role and Capabilities in the 2020s

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, November 13, 2015
Abstract in English: 
Security challenges in East Asia are becoming acute. North Korea is developing a missile-deliverable nuclear weapon, and the long-term stability of the Pyongyang regime is questionable. Taiwan, which Beijing claims as part of Chinese territory, is about to have a presidential election in which a candidate from a pro-independence party is the front-runner. China has also become increasingly assertive in its territorial disputes with Japan and several Southeast Asian countries. Meanwhile, Japan's leaders are attempting to redefine the role Japan plays in regional security affairs. Indeed, Japan's legislature recently enacted revisions to the country's national security laws that would loosen limitations on the use of Japan's armed forces, and the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has pledged to increase defense spending
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40
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The Future of Cohesion Policy

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The report Future of cohesion policy examines the main issues of debate around the cohesion policy in order to set up the political framework of discussion. Methodologically, this first report is based on an analysis of past debates, predominantly in regional EU fora. Desk-based research was supplemented by thematic discussions with other EU institutions, experts and key stakeholders in the scope of a seminar. Furthermore this study series on the Future of cohesion policy should provide a new impetus to the work of the Committee of the Regions and its members in the policy debates on the efficiency and effectiveness of Cohesion Policy from the perspective of local and regional authorities as well as the main topic of the research: The Cohesion Policy beyond 2020.
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196
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