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2030

EUISS Yearbook of European Security 2023

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, August 2, 2023
Abstract in English: 
The 2023 Yearbook of European Security provides an overview of events in 2022 that were significant for European security – in particular, inevitably, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The first section of the volume explores the EU’s response to the war in Ukraine and the far-reaching repercussions of this unprecedented event for Europe’s security and defence architecture.
The second section assesses the implementation of the Strategic Compass, the guiding framework for the Union’s security and defence up to 2030, and the EU’s evolution as a defence actor. The third section focuses on multilateralism, and contains geographical and regional thematic chapters on North Africa and the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas.
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136
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Global Risks Report 2023

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 11, 2023
Abstract in English: 
The world faces a set of risks that feel both wholly new and eerily familiar. The Global Risks Report 2023 explores some of the most severe risks we may face over the next decade.
As we stand on the edge of a low-growth and low-cooperation era, tougher trade-offs risk eroding climate action, human development and future resilience.
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98
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EU-China 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, December 7, 2022
Abstract in English: 
The EU's relations with China are changing rapidly. What priorities, choices, challenges and opportunities might emerge for the EU in its dealings with China over the next decade? This study presents the results of an expert survey on the future of EU-China relations. 171 China observers took part, drawn from among European think tanks, EU institutions and a China-focused European youth network. A synthesis of the responses reflects the considerations, insights and advice of Europe's China knowledge community on the EU's approach to China looking ahead towards 2030.
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56
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Russian futures 2030 - The shape of things to come

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, September 22, 2020
Abstract in English: 
This Chaillot Paper seeks to provide readers with ambitious foresight analysis and insights on how to be prepared for unexpected twists and turns in Russia’s future trajectory.
The opening chapter highlights a set of key megatrends that will shape how Russia evolves in the decade ahead. Subsequent chapters focus on key sectors and analyse critical uncertainties that will influence Russia’s future course of development. They cover state-society relations in the country; its economic development and the evolution of its military posture; as well as how Russia’s relations with the EU’s eastern neighbours and China may unfold by 2030. Each of these chapters presents three alternative future scenarios. While they zoom in on specific themes and sectors, the concluding section offers a panoramic view of the various possible futures – combining elements of all of the preceding chapters to produce three holistic snapshots of Russia in 2030.
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108
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The Future of Government 2030+ - A Citizen Centric Perspective on New Government Models

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, March 1, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The Future of Government 2030+: A Citizen Centric Perspective on New Government Models project brings citizens to the centre of the scene. The objective of this project is to explore the emerging societal challenges, analyse trends in a rapidly changing digital world and launch an EU-wide debate on the possible future government models. To address this, citizen engagement, foresight and design are combined, with recent literature from the field of digital politics and media as a framework. The main research question of the project is: How will citizens, together with other actors, shape governments, policies and democracy in 2030 and beyond? Throughout the highly participatory process, more than 150 citizens, together with CSO, think tank, business and public sector representatives, as well as 100 design students participated in the creation of future scenarios and concepts. Four scenarios have been created using the 20 stories emerged from citizen workshops. They served as an inspiration for design students to develop 40 FuturGov concepts. Through the FuturGov Engagement Game, the project’s ambition is to trigger and launch a debate with citizens, businesses, civil society organizations, policy-makers and civil servants in Europe.
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102
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Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: India

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 7, 2019
Abstract in English: 
This report sheds light on one of the fastest growing economies in the world - India. By 2030, India will see a tremendous jump in consumer spending driven by increased incomes, a billion diverse internet users and a very young population. The new Indian consumer will be more affluent, and more willing to spend but will have more evolved preferences and aspirations than consumers of the past. The ‘Urban vs. Rural’ paradigm of the past may not hold as firm in future. Moreover, specific key societal challenges will have to be overcome to ensure a positive future of consumption for all. The report builds on in-depth consumer surveys conducted across 5,100 households in 30 cities and town in India and draws from over 40 in-depth interviews with private and public-sector leaders. It lays out seven critical predictions on a vision for consumption in India in 2030 and lays out a call-to-action for multi-stakeholder collaborations to build an inclusive future for India.
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36
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Global Trends to 2030: Shaping the future in a fast-changing world

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, November 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Global power shifts, pressure on liberal democracies, challenges to global governance, the transformation of economic models and of the very fabric of societies, new uses and misuses of technology, humanity’s growing ecological footprint: the world may be on the cusp of a new geopolitical, geo-economic and geotechnological order. Against this backdrop, how can the European Union ensure that it holds its destiny in its own hands? What must it do to better prepare and shape the future, tackling emerging challenges and seizing the opportunities that will arise?
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72
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ASEAN 2030: Toward a Borderless Economic Community

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, July 18, 2014
Abstract in English: 
This book examines development issues for members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and concludes that they have the potential to reach by 2030 the average quality of life enjoyed today in advanced economies. This book investigates long-term development issues for members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It finds that with a proper policy mix including domestic structural reforms and bold initiatives for regional integration, by 2030 ASEAN has the potential to reach the average quality of life enjoyed today in advanced economies and fulfill its aspirations to become a resilient, inclusive, competitive, and harmonious (RICH) region.Key challenges moving forward are to enhance macroeconomic and financial stability, support equitable growth, promote competitiveness and innovation, and protect the environment. Overcoming these challenges to build a truly borderless economic region implies eliminating remaining barriers to the flow of goods, services, and production factors, and strengthening competitiveness and the institutional framework, while updating some governing principles. But ASEAN should not copy the European Union. It must maintain its flexibility and pragmatism, without creating a fat regional bureaucracy.
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340
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Let’s not exaggerate – Southern Gas Corridor prospects to 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, July 30, 2018
Abstract in English: 
A new round of political activity to promote the Southern Gas Corridor from the Caspian to Europe has begun. In February, European energy ministers and supplier nation officials met in Baku. In June, first gas entered the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) across Turkey, and the first substantial source of supply for the Southern Corridor, the Shah Deniz II project in Azerbaijan, started producing. Shah Deniz II will ramp up to peak output of 16 bcm/year by 2021-22. Europe will then receive around 10 bcm, no more than 2 per cent of its overall demand, via the Southern Corridor, compared to the 10-20 per cent that had been envisaged in Brussels. While political leaders continue to paint the corridor’s prospects in very bright colours, the market dynamics – in the Caspian region itself, in the Caucasus and Turkey, and in Europe – are less promising. Commercial conditions for the Southern Corridor’s success have deteriorated as political support for it has grown. This paper argues that, up to 2030, the corridor will most likely remain an insubstantial contributor to Europe’s gas balance. At best, there may be sufficient gas for a second string of TANAP, but only at the end of the 2020s. The paper considers the potential sources of supply for the Southern Corridor (Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and others including Iran, Kurdistan, and the East Mediterranean); demand and transport issues; and the conditions under which Southern Corridor gas will compete with other supply in the European market.
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30
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Future Shocks and Shifts: Challenges for the Global Workforce and Skills Development

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, April 24, 2017
Abstract in English: 
This report presents evidence on the expanding scope of automation. After three decades of a secular decline in middle-income jobs, the bulk of low-skilled and low-income workers are now for the first time susceptible to computerization. Meanwhile, skilled jobs remain relatively resilient to recent trends in technology. In particular, workers with extraordinary social and creative skills will still remain in the workforce in 2030.
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34
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