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2040

Arbeitslandschaft 2040

Title Original Language: 
Arbeitslandschaft 2040
Abstract Original Language: 
Die Studien zur Arbeitslandschaft untersuchen in regelmäßigen Abständen, wie sich Angebot und Nachfrage am Arbeitsmarkt entwickeln und welche Ungleichgewichte sich einstellen. Im aktualisierten Gutachten sind vor allem die Beurteilung der Auswirkungen des technologischen Fortschritts und der Digitalisierung auf die zukünftigen Arbeitsinhalte auf den aktuellen Stand der Forschung gebracht worden. Zudem wurde eine angepasste wirtschaftliche Rahmenprognose der Analyse zugrunde gelegt.
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, May 21, 2015
Abstract in English: 
Die Studien zur Arbeitslandschaft untersuchen in regelmäßigen Abständen, wie sich Angebot und Nachfrage am Arbeitsmarkt entwickeln und welche Ungleichgewichte sich einstellen. Im aktualisierten Gutachten sind vor allem die Beurteilung der Auswirkungen des technologischen Fortschritts und der Digitalisierung auf die zukünftigen Arbeitsinhalte auf den aktuellen Stand der Forschung gebracht worden. Zudem wurde eine angepasste wirtschaftliche Rahmenprognose der Analyse zugrunde gelegt.
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109
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Natural Resources in 2020, 2030, and 2040: Implications for the United States

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 25, 2013
Abstract in English: 
Based on the general contention that the world is entering an intensified period of resource stress, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) asked Chatham House in July 2011 to conduct research to identify the most important natural resource trends affecting US national security over a 2020, 2030, and 2040 time horizon. The requested analysis covers water, fuel, food, and metals (also referred to as materials). The identified trends—which include patterns of demand, supply, availability, price levels, and price volatility—are shaped and influenced by emerging climate changes, evolving demographic patterns, increasing economic development, and human induced environmental degradation. The result is this report which considers how local and global availability of natural resources will affect US security interests in the medium term (to 2020) and long term (specifically 2030 and 2040). The 2020 date was selected to identify the most pressing policy relevant issues; 2030 was selected to support development of the NIC’s longer-range Global Trends series; and 2040 to support ongoing NIC projects exploring the national security impact of global food, water, and energy security.

The major assumption underpinning this analysis is that mounting prosperity in both the developed and the developing world will continue to drive increased consumer demand for key resources. At the same time, constraints in energy, water, and other critical natural resources and infrastructure, together with socio-economic shifts, will bring new and hard-to-manage instabilities. There will be an increasing risk of discontinuous and systemic shocks to 2040 as a consequence of these factors.

This report identifies potential natural resource stresses (in terms of aggregate availability, absolute prices, or rapid price changes) and analyzes their likely impact on the United States and states/regions of interest to the United States. The report also explores how these stresses will interact with one another and other pre-existing conditions, including poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions. Summary tables (Annex A) provide an overview of key resource-related threats and their potential impact on the United States and other major economies. The risk assessments are based on a continuation of today's practices and trends; alternate policy choices, market actions, and technology developments will likely change future risk assessments.
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112
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World Oil Outlook 2014

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
Abstract in English: 
The OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO) has been published annually since 2007. It presents projections for the medium-term (to 2019) and long-term (this year extended to 2040) for oil demand and supply. The main conclusions of the WOO 2014 are that oil will continue to play a major part in satisfying world energy needs, as the global economy more than doubles in size, population grows, prosperity expands everywhere, and despite a strong reduction in energy intensity. It also illustrates the growing significance of developing countries in the energy landscape and the progressive shift towards Asia as its gravity centre. Resources are amply sufficient to meet future oil needs. The WOO also emphasizes the many uncertainties associated with the global economy and non-OPEC supply.
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396
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Global Strategic Trends out to 2040

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, February 1, 2010
Abstract in English: 
The document is a contribution to a growing body of knowledge and is aimed at the defence community. It seeks to build on previous editions of Global Strategic Trends with a more accessible format. It has a greater focus on defence and security issues and expands on other subjects, including resources, and the resurgence of ideology. From a comprehensive review of trends, it draws out 3 key themes: how we will adapt to the reality of a shifting climate and breakneck technological innovation (see the Human Environment); the dominance of the West in international affairs will fade and global power will become more evenly distributed between the West and the rising powers in Asia (see the Dynamics of Global Power); and finally, as society and the distribution of global power changes, the challenges to defence and security will increase (see Evolving Defence and Security Challenges). It draws lessons from contemporary events to conclude that globalisation is a more volatile process than previously envisaged and that this volatility may leave globalised systems more vulnerable to strategic shock and systemic failure. It also draws out high level global defence and security implications.
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169
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Annual Energy Outlook 2015

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
Projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) focus on the factors expected to shape U.S. energy markets through 2040. The projections provide a basis for examination and discussion of energy market trends and serve as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in U.S. energy policies, rules, and regulations, as well as the potential role of advanced technologies.
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154
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