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Climate Change

Spain 2050

Title Original Language: 
España 2050. Fundamentos y propuestas para una Estrategia Nacional de Largo Plazo
Abstract Original Language: 
España 2050 es el primer ejercicio de prospectiva estratégica elaborado por el Gobierno de España. El estudio explora los desafíos y las oportunidades sociales, económicas y medioambientales que afrontará España en las próximas tres décadas; fija 50 objetivos cualitativos de cara a 2050; y propone más de 200 medidas para alcanzarlos.
El informe ha sido elaborado por un equipo multidisciplinar de más de 100 expertos y por la Oficina Nacional de Prospectiva y Estrategia del Gobierno de España, con el apoyo de ministerios, el Banco de España y el Joint Research Centre de la Comisión Europea.
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, May 20, 2021
Abstract in English: 
Spain 2050 is the first comprehensive strategic foresight report ever produced by the Spanish Government. It explores the main social, economic and environmental challenges that Spain will face over the next three decades; sets 50 quantitative goals for 2050; and advances more than 200 policy measures to achieve them.
The report was crafted by a multidisciplinary team of over a hundred experts and the Spanish National Office of Foresight and Strategy, with the support of several ministries, the Bank of Spain, and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.
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678
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A framework to decarbonise the economy

Title Original Language: 
A framework to decarbonise the economy
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, February 4, 2022
Abstract in English: 
Global progress towards tackling climate change is lagging. This paper puts forward a framework to design comprehensive decarbonisation strategies while promoting growth and social inclusion. It first highlights the need of evaluating a country’s national climate targets and current policy mix, in conjunction with facilitating monitoring tools to assess current and future progress, as a key step to design effective decarbonisation strategies. It then provides a detailed comparison of several policy instruments across different assessment criteria, which indicates that no single instrument is clearly superior to all others. This highlights the need for developing decarbonisation strategies based on a wide policy mix consisting of three main components: 1) emission pricing policy instruments; 2) standards and regulations; 3) complementary policies to facilitate the reallocation of capital, labour and innovation towards low-carbon activities and to offset the adverse distributional effects of reducing emissions. However, there is no one-size-fits-all policy mix, as feasible policy choices depend on countries’ industrial structure, social preferences and political constraints. A robust and independent institutional framework, stakeholders engagement and credible communication campaigns are key to managing these constraints and ultimately enhancing public acceptance of climate mitigation policies.
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89
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Carbon pricing and COVID-19: Policy changes, challenges and design options in OECD and G20 countries

Title Original Language: 
Carbon pricing and COVID-19: Policy changes, challenges and design options in OECD and G20 countries
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, March 10, 2022
Abstract in English: 
This paper assesses the role of carbon pricing in a sustainable recovery from COVID-19. It tracks the policy changes in carbon pricing within OECD and G20 countries between January 2020 and August 2021 of the COVID-19 pandemic. Carbon pricing as defined here includes emissions trading schemes, fossil fuel support and carbon, fuel excise or aviation taxes. The paper also highlights the need for the recovery to be sustainable and discusses the advantages, limitations and uses of carbon pricing therein. In addition, it describes additional challenges to as well as increased rationale for carbon pricing in the pandemic. It provides evidence on the effects of carbon pricing on the challenges and discusses carbon pricing design elements to help overcome those challenges. The paper concludes that there were more policy changes with an expected negative impact on climate. However, it is likely that the impact of the climate-positive changes – which are broader in coverage and scope - will outweigh the climate-negative changes.
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92
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Munich Security Report 2022

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, February 14, 2022
Abstract in English: 
2021 was clearly not a year for geopolitical optimism. Almost every month, a new crisis dominated the news, contributing to a sense that this mounting tide of crises
threatens to overwhelm us.
Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that in Europe and beyond, concern about a growing loss of control is prevalent. In fact, findings from the Munich Security Index 2022 not only reflect the high level of risk perceived by respondents in the G7 and BRICS countries; they also suggest the emergence of “collective helplessness” in the face of a plethora of crises that reinforce each other. Just like people can suffer from “learned helplessness” – a psychological term describing the feeling that nothing one does can effect positive change – societies, too, may come to believe that they are unable to get a grip on the challenges they are facing. Whether it is the seemingly endless pandemic, the increasingly tangible threat of climate change, the vexing vulnerabilities of an interconnected world, or increasing geopolitical tensions, all these challenges contribute to a feeling of a loss of control. Liberal democracies appear to feel particularly overwhelmed.
This perception is highly dangerous because it can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Societies that have concluded that they cannot solve humankind’s most challenging problems might no longer even try to turn the tide. Will our stressed and overburdened societies end up accepting what they see as their fate, although they have the tools and resources to change it?
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Number of pages: 
182
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State of the Union 2021

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, September 15, 2021
Abstract in English: 
In her State of the Union address on 15 September 2021, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen outlined flagship initiatives which the Commission plans to undertake in the coming year. They will among others include:
- Continuing the vaccination efforts in Europe and speeding up vaccination globally, as well as strengthening the pandemic preparedness
- Working on closing the climate finance gap, together with our global partners
- Leading the digital transformation that will create jobs and drive competitiveness, while ensuring technical excellence and security of supply
- Ensuring fairer working conditions and better healthcare, and creating more opportunities for Europe’s youth to benefit from the European social market economy
- Stepping up our cooperation on security and defence, and deepening EU’s partnership with closest allies
- Defending European values and freedoms, and protecting the rule of law
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21
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Circular economy for climate neutrality

Title Original Language: 
Circular economy for climate neutrality
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, November 22, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The previous Commission policy on resources management was part of the priority for jobs and growth and economic competitiveness. The circular economy will be no less important for the new political priority of climate neutrality; it will become one of the indispensable elements for meeting the EU’s ambitions. EU climate policy and the circular economy are by and large complementary and mutually reinforcing. The circular economy is more than just another ‘product standards’ policy.In order for this to happen, •there is a need for a framework that is able to systematically address trade-offs, such as between the circular and the bioeconomy, but also between material efficiency and energy use, as well as •a mechanism to steer and monitor progress, touching upon the question of whether and if so, how to increase ambition and develop tools to monitor progress, for example via targets, and •the new Commission will need to develop and then scale up successful products and processes to create opportunities for new value chains while addressing risks, such as dependency on raw materials. Circular economy products for the foreseeable future will require both technology push and market pull policies. Both the circular economy and low-carbon economy will require new and often yet unknown business models. This will also require new methods of regulation. The principal challenge will be to create ‘lead markets’ for the circular economy in combination with low-carbon products. Many ideas for this exist. They include, for example, ‘carbon contracts for difference’, carbon budgets for projects, consumption charges, taxes and tax exemptions, sustainable finance, product standards and public procurement. Ideas now need to be tested to see whether they could work in practice. Finally, the EU circular economy will need to be underpinned by a robust and transparent carbon accounting system. If effective, such as system can at the same time act as a catalyst -carbon products and processes.
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11
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A Vision for a Sustainable Battery Value Chain in 2030

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, September 19, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The need for urgent and more intensive actions against climate change is broadly recognized. In support of this agenda, this report presents a simple yet profound vision: a circular, responsible and just battery value chain is one of the major near-term drivers to realize the 2C Paris Agreement goal in the transport and power sectors, setting course towards achieving the 1.5C goal if complemented with other technologies and collaborative efforts.
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Two Degrees of Transformation Businesses are coming together to lead on climate change. Will you join them?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, April 11, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The ‘Two Degrees of Transformation’ report was developed in collaboration with the Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders – a leadership community supported by the World Economic Forum’s Shaping the Future of Environment and Natural Resource Security System Initiative. The run-up to 2020 is a crucial period for delivering progress in line with science if the world is to avoid the worst effects of climate change. Climate change will shape the way in which we do business for decades. Business has a vital role to play in curbing its effects by limiting carbon emissions, but success isn’t just about action from individual companies. Business, sectors, states and regions need to consolidate efforts to create change on a level large enough to halt the crisis. The report reveals what is already happening, bringing together examples from CEOs, companies and sectors from around the world, of smart working, new thinking and innovation. It highlights examples that others can follow, and that will make transformation happen faster than ever before.
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ESPAS Report 2019 : Global Trends to 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, April 5, 2019
Abstract in English: 
For something as unknown as the future, it appears to have become surprisingly predictable. A Google search of ‘future 2030’ yields more than 97 million results, all more or less claiming similar things: that 2030 will see a more connected, yet fragmented world, with hazardous shifts in demography and energy, and dangerous changes in technology, environment, and politics.
The future, while overall negative, appears to be a rather certain place.
This illusion of definitiveness is created by two dynamics: first, the pessimistic tone that runs through the vast majority of foresight reports. This is a common feature when it comes to future thinking, with one study showing that all studies undertaken on the future over the last 70 years have one thing in common; pessimism. The reason for this is simple: although both optimism and pessimism are natural human dispositions, the latter is more prevalent by far. Humans are, genetically speaking, biased towards the negative – some studies even indicate that this is particularly the case for Europeans. Second, pessimism in foresight is encouraged by the grave air that surrounds it: in general, negative statements are given more attention than positive ones. That said, more pessimism in foresight does not equal greater accuracy, as one study shows.
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52
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Global Trends to 2035 - Economy and Society

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This study maps and analyses current and future global trends in the fields of economics and society, covering the period to 2035. Drawing on and complementing existing literature, it summarises and analyses the findings of relevant foresight studies in relation to such global trends. It traces recent changes in the perceived trajectory of already-identified trends and identifies significant new or emerging trends. It also addresses potential policy implications of such trends for the EU.
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160
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