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Climate Change

Global Trends to 2035 - Economy and Society

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This study maps and analyses current and future global trends in the fields of economics and society, covering the period to 2035. Drawing on and complementing existing literature, it summarises and analyses the findings of relevant foresight studies in relation to such global trends. It traces recent changes in the perceived trajectory of already-identified trends and identifies significant new or emerging trends. It also addresses potential policy implications of such trends for the EU.
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160
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Innovative Approaches to Building Resilient Coastal Infrastructure

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This Policy Paper comprises an Issue Brief and Background Report prepared by the OECD for the G7 Environment, Energy and Oceans Ministers. It outlines the rising risks faced by coastal communities, which are being exacerbated by climate change. It shows how governments can harness innovation in information, planning, financing and monitoring to help improve resilience of those areas to climate change, and emphasises the need for close engagement with coastal communities.
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15
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Two futures and how to reconcile them

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, November 3, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Although there is little argument about the fact that climate change and the digitalisation of the economy are the two main trends that will matter most over the coming decades, to date they have predominantly been considered separately rather than together. The first step towards shaping our future is being able to think about it, however, and the compartmentalisation of research efforts (climate change on the one hand and digitalisation on the other) is unhelpful in this respect. Yet cross-cutting investigations present a challenge since the academic communities and social dynamics underlying both fields of research are entirely distinct. The aim of this Foresight Brief is therefore merely to initiate a debate by analysing the different versions of these two narratives. The author then examines the potential interrelation and ranking of these narratives and explores the emergence of digital and green capitalism and its consequences. The publication concludes by proposing a scenario involving a two-step approach to change.
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11
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Global Trendometer - Essays on medium- and long-term global trends

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The EU faces challenges from the outside and the inside. Most of those are the symptoms of big underlying trends, and handling them needs foresight. The Global Trendometer tries to provide foresight for decision makers in the EU by analysing the changes in these long-term trends. This publication does not offer answers or make recommendations. It presents summarised information derived from a range of carefully selected sources. This issue of the Global Trendometer analyses long-term trends on India, the labour-share of income, and democracy and artificial intelligence. It also features two-pagers on geoengineering, remittances, food security in China, economic waves, the US after Trump, public procurement and deep fakes.
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56
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Farm performance and climate

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, May 15, 2017
Abstract in English: 
This study examines the effect of climate variability and climate change on the productivity of Australian cropping farms between 1977–78 and 2014–15. The productivity of Australian cropping farms is heavily affected by climate variability, particularly the occurrence of droughts. While Australian farmers are well accustomed to managing this variability, the emergence of climate change is presenting some new challenges.
This study combines ABARES farm survey data with spatial climate data to estimate the effect of climate conditions (such as, rainfall and temperature) on cropping farm TFP (Total Factor Productivity, i.e the combined productivity of labor and capital). The study then presents climate adjusted productivity estimates with the effects of climate removed. For comparison, similar results are generated for farm wheat yields using the same data sources and methods.
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71
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Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 5, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Incremental change is not an option any more in the construction industry. By redefining the ultimate frontier, leapfrogging innovations in construction will finally help address major societal challenges, from mass urbanization to climate change. The widespread adoption of game-changing innovations that consider a variety of possible futures is going to make a serious impact, socially, economically and environmentally.
This report examines what the industry could look like in the future and the strategic implications for the key stakeholders and broader society. The outlined transformation imperatives should help the industry prepare for a prosperous future.
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32
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Developing the EU long term climate strategy

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, April 18, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Designing a new long-term climate strategy (LTCS) implies decisions about how to deal with important climate policy questions. These decisions will shape the strategy and therefore the European climate policy debate.
Given the different tasks an LTCS will need to perform, several coordinated strategy documents with clearly defined purposes will be needed: a sequence (or suite) of strategic documents that outline the EU’s decarbonisation strategy for different audiences.
Given the wide-ranging implications of the drive for net-zero emissions and the limited power of the European Commission to push through top-down legislation, soft instruments such as the LTCS are crucial. A transparent and participatory process in developing the LTCS is therefore vital to generate the buy-in from stakeholders that is necessary to underpin the climate policies that will meet the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement.
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12
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Foresight Future of the Sea

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, May 1, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This report considers the role that science and technology can play in understanding and providing solutions to the long-term issues affecting the sea. It outlines a number of recommendations to help the UK utilise its current expertise and technological strengths to foster trade links, build marine capacity across the world and collaborate to tackle climate change.

From Captain Cook, to Turner and the Royal Navy, the sea is embedded in our culture and history, but what will it mean for the UK to be successful maritime nation in the 21st century, and beyond? That is the key question that this report seeks to answer.
We anticipate many new opportunities for the UK to benefit economically from the sea, and to show leadership on the global stage. We are well placed to succeed. Including the British Overseas Territories, the UK has one of the largest marine spaces of any country in the world – a rich and diverse area that offers new opportunities for exploration, protection and economic activity. Many of the UK’s relevant technological and scientific capabilities are world leading. However business as usual is not an option if the UK wants to fully capitalise on these opportunities, and be a successful marine and maritime nation in the future.
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128
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Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 16, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Thinking about the future is vital but hard. Crises keep intruding, making it all but impossible to look beyond daily headlines to what lies over the horizon. In those circumstances, thinking “outside the box,” to use the cliché, too often loses out to keeping up with the inbox. That is why every four years the National Intelligence Council (NIC) undertakes a major assessment of the forces and choices shaping the world before us over the next two decades.
This version, the sixth in the series, is titled, “Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress,” and we are proud of it. It may look like a report, but it is really an invitation, an invitation to discuss, debate and inquire further about how the future could unfold. Certainly, we do not pretend to have the definitive “answer.”
Long-term thinking is critical to framing strategy. The Global Trends series pushes us to reexamine key assumptions, expectations, and uncertainties about the future. In a very messy and interconnected world, a longer perspective requires us to ask hard questions about which issues and choices will be most consequential in the decades ahead–even if they don’t necessarily generate the biggest headlines. A longer view also is essential because issues like terrorism, cyberattacks, biotechnology, and climate change invoke high stakes and will require sustained collaboration to address.
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225
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Reflection paper on the future of EU finances

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
Abstract in English: 
The EU budget faces a tough challenge to fund more with less. The EU is expected to play a bigger role in new policy areas like migration, internal and external security or defence. And Europe should also preserve its leading role on the global stage, as a major humanitarian and development aid donor and as a leader of the fight against climate change. That must be achieved with an EU budget that will only get smaller following the departure of the United Kingdom.
Today's reflection paper looks at this challenge and puts the key elements for discussion on the table, structured around the five scenarios of the White Paper: will the EU simply carry on, do less together, move ahead at different levels of intensity, do less but more efficiently or do much more together? Each of these illustrative scenarios would have different consequences - both in terms of how much to spend for what purpose, and on where the money could come from. Options range from reducing spending for existing policies to increasing revenues.
In addition, the reflection paper sets out the basic features of the EU budget and charts the principal trends and developments in key policy areas like cohesion or agriculture. It also addresses overarching issues like the added value of EU funding or the articulation between EU funding and structural reforms in Member States.
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40
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