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Climate Change

A Vision for a Sustainable Battery Value Chain in 2030

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Thursday, September 19, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The need for urgent and more intensive actions against climate change is broadly recognized. In support of this agenda, this report presents a simple yet profound vision: a circular, responsible and just battery value chain is one of the major near-term drivers to realize the 2C Paris Agreement goal in the transport and power sectors, setting course towards achieving the 1.5C goal if complemented with other technologies and collaborative efforts.
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Two Degrees of Transformation Businesses are coming together to lead on climate change. Will you join them?

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Thursday, April 11, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The ‘Two Degrees of Transformation’ report was developed in collaboration with the Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders – a leadership community supported by the World Economic Forum’s Shaping the Future of Environment and Natural Resource Security System Initiative. The run-up to 2020 is a crucial period for delivering progress in line with science if the world is to avoid the worst effects of climate change. Climate change will shape the way in which we do business for decades. Business has a vital role to play in curbing its effects by limiting carbon emissions, but success isn’t just about action from individual companies. Business, sectors, states and regions need to consolidate efforts to create change on a level large enough to halt the crisis. The report reveals what is already happening, bringing together examples from CEOs, companies and sectors from around the world, of smart working, new thinking and innovation. It highlights examples that others can follow, and that will make transformation happen faster than ever before.
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ESPAS Report 2019 : Global Trends to 2030

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Publication date: 
Friday, April 5, 2019
Abstract in English: 
For something as unknown as the future, it appears to have become surprisingly predictable. A Google search of ‘future 2030’ yields more than 97 million results, all more or less claiming similar things: that 2030 will see a more connected, yet fragmented world, with hazardous shifts in demography and energy, and dangerous changes in technology, environment, and politics.
The future, while overall negative, appears to be a rather certain place.
This illusion of definitiveness is created by two dynamics: first, the pessimistic tone that runs through the vast majority of foresight reports. This is a common feature when it comes to future thinking, with one study showing that all studies undertaken on the future over the last 70 years have one thing in common; pessimism. The reason for this is simple: although both optimism and pessimism are natural human dispositions, the latter is more prevalent by far. Humans are, genetically speaking, biased towards the negative – some studies even indicate that this is particularly the case for Europeans. Second, pessimism in foresight is encouraged by the grave air that surrounds it: in general, negative statements are given more attention than positive ones. That said, more pessimism in foresight does not equal greater accuracy, as one study shows.
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52
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Global Trends to 2035 - Economy and Society

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Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This study maps and analyses current and future global trends in the fields of economics and society, covering the period to 2035. Drawing on and complementing existing literature, it summarises and analyses the findings of relevant foresight studies in relation to such global trends. It traces recent changes in the perceived trajectory of already-identified trends and identifies significant new or emerging trends. It also addresses potential policy implications of such trends for the EU.
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160
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Innovative Approaches to Building Resilient Coastal Infrastructure

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Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This Policy Paper comprises an Issue Brief and Background Report prepared by the OECD for the G7 Environment, Energy and Oceans Ministers. It outlines the rising risks faced by coastal communities, which are being exacerbated by climate change. It shows how governments can harness innovation in information, planning, financing and monitoring to help improve resilience of those areas to climate change, and emphasises the need for close engagement with coastal communities.
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15
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Two futures and how to reconcile them

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Friday, November 3, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Although there is little argument about the fact that climate change and the digitalisation of the economy are the two main trends that will matter most over the coming decades, to date they have predominantly been considered separately rather than together. The first step towards shaping our future is being able to think about it, however, and the compartmentalisation of research efforts (climate change on the one hand and digitalisation on the other) is unhelpful in this respect. Yet cross-cutting investigations present a challenge since the academic communities and social dynamics underlying both fields of research are entirely distinct. The aim of this Foresight Brief is therefore merely to initiate a debate by analysing the different versions of these two narratives. The author then examines the potential interrelation and ranking of these narratives and explores the emergence of digital and green capitalism and its consequences. The publication concludes by proposing a scenario involving a two-step approach to change.
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11
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Global Trendometer - Essays on medium- and long-term global trends

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Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The EU faces challenges from the outside and the inside. Most of those are the symptoms of big underlying trends, and handling them needs foresight. The Global Trendometer tries to provide foresight for decision makers in the EU by analysing the changes in these long-term trends. This publication does not offer answers or make recommendations. It presents summarised information derived from a range of carefully selected sources. This issue of the Global Trendometer analyses long-term trends on India, the labour-share of income, and democracy and artificial intelligence. It also features two-pagers on geoengineering, remittances, food security in China, economic waves, the US after Trump, public procurement and deep fakes.
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56
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Farm performance and climate

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Monday, May 15, 2017
Abstract in English: 
This study examines the effect of climate variability and climate change on the productivity of Australian cropping farms between 1977–78 and 2014–15. The productivity of Australian cropping farms is heavily affected by climate variability, particularly the occurrence of droughts. While Australian farmers are well accustomed to managing this variability, the emergence of climate change is presenting some new challenges.
This study combines ABARES farm survey data with spatial climate data to estimate the effect of climate conditions (such as, rainfall and temperature) on cropping farm TFP (Total Factor Productivity, i.e the combined productivity of labor and capital). The study then presents climate adjusted productivity estimates with the effects of climate removed. For comparison, similar results are generated for farm wheat yields using the same data sources and methods.
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71
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Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry

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Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 5, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Incremental change is not an option any more in the construction industry. By redefining the ultimate frontier, leapfrogging innovations in construction will finally help address major societal challenges, from mass urbanization to climate change. The widespread adoption of game-changing innovations that consider a variety of possible futures is going to make a serious impact, socially, economically and environmentally.
This report examines what the industry could look like in the future and the strategic implications for the key stakeholders and broader society. The outlined transformation imperatives should help the industry prepare for a prosperous future.
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32
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Developing the EU long term climate strategy

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Wednesday, April 18, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Designing a new long-term climate strategy (LTCS) implies decisions about how to deal with important climate policy questions. These decisions will shape the strategy and therefore the European climate policy debate.
Given the different tasks an LTCS will need to perform, several coordinated strategy documents with clearly defined purposes will be needed: a sequence (or suite) of strategic documents that outline the EU’s decarbonisation strategy for different audiences.
Given the wide-ranging implications of the drive for net-zero emissions and the limited power of the European Commission to push through top-down legislation, soft instruments such as the LTCS are crucial. A transparent and participatory process in developing the LTCS is therefore vital to generate the buy-in from stakeholders that is necessary to underpin the climate policies that will meet the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement.
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12
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