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Climate Change Action

New Alliances: Plurilateral initiatives as a mode of cooperation in international climate politics

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 6, 2023
Abstract in English: 
The focus in climate debates on effective international cooperation has recently shifted towards alliances of small groups of pioneering countries. During the climate summit in Glasgow in 2021 (COP 26), a num­ber of such plurilateral initiatives were announced. There are several reasons for this. For one thing, the mechanisms of the multilateral Paris Agreement have so far failed to generate the necessary momentum to reduce emissions. Moreover, the urgency for acceler­ated decarbonisation and adaptation to climate im­pacts is growing. It is becoming increasingly pressing to adapt to the impacts of climate change and to find ways of dealing with irreparable loss and damage, not just in the Global South. Russia’s attack on Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, as well as short- to medium-term shifts in energy policy priorities have further complicated the situation.
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25
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Strategic Foresight Report 2023

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 6, 2023
Abstract in English: 
The European Union is forging ahead with unprecedented action to achieve climate neutrality and sustainability. A successful transformation will limit the existential risks of climate change and the environmental crisis while strengthening the EU’s open strategic autonomy and economic security. It will be key to reinforcing Europe’s long-term competitiveness and social model, and thus its global leadership in the new, net-zero economy, also by supporting other regions in building a sustainable future. Ultimately, this will increase the wellbeing of current and future generations.
However, a successful and fair socio-economic transformation is not a given. Together with its twin, the digital transition, the green transition requires pivotal changes and trade-offs that will affect, among others, our economies and societies at an unmatched pace and scale. To succeed in this transformation, it is essential to recognise the links between the environmental, social, and economic dimensions of sustainability. This will enable Europe to pursue a forwardlooking geopolitical strategy that successfully leverages its most valuable assets – namely, its unique social market economy and its position as the largest trading block in the world.
Against this backdrop, the 2023 Strategic Foresight Report examines the key intersections between the structural trends and dynamics affecting the social and economic aspects of sustainability, to clarify the potential choices and trade-offs that the EU is likely to face in the future. Drawing on an inclusive foresight exercise and building on the three previous editions, it explores key challenges that will determine the transformation of our society and economy towards a model that respects planetary boundaries, and safeguards global competitiveness, strong social foundations, and resilience. It also investigates how pursuing inclusive wellbeing over the long-term, engaging in a pathway towards sustainability, and consolidating democracy can be the recipe for Europe to strengthen its global role.
On this basis, the report proposes ten areas for action to achieve the objectives of a socially and economically sustainable Europe with a stronger role in the world in the coming years.
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36
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Global Risks Report 2023

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 11, 2023
Abstract in English: 
The world faces a set of risks that feel both wholly new and eerily familiar. The Global Risks Report 2023 explores some of the most severe risks we may face over the next decade.
As we stand on the edge of a low-growth and low-cooperation era, tougher trade-offs risk eroding climate action, human development and future resilience.
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98
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Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2020: A New Normal Beyond Covid-19

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, January 1, 2021
Abstract in English: 
This edition of the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO 2020) puts its focus on analysing the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on the transport sector as a whole. The transport sector has suffered the greatest slump in mobility demand of the history during the lockdown period, while the oil price has plummeted. This report explores the impacts of transport activity trends that may persist in the future from the structural changes induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as of policy initiatives that may be adopted as enabling measures for low-carbon transport. While greenhouse gas emissions in this “New Normal” differ significantly compared to previous projections, the emissions gap towards a 2°C pathway is closed only by some 29%, thereby stressing the need of more ambitious collective action to maintaining global temperature change to well below 2°C.
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80
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GECO2015. Global Energy and Climate Outlook. Road to Paris. Assessment of Low Emission Levels under World Action Integrating National Contributions

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, November 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
This report presents the modelling work quoted in the EC communication "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020” in the EU’s Energy Union package. It examines the effects of a Baseline scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, and of a Global Mitigation scenario in line with keeping global warming below 2°C. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change. In the Baseline, emissions trigger +3.5°C global warming. In the Global Mitigation scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. A significant transformation of the energy systems and non-energy measures enable regions at all levels of income to move to a low-emission growth pathway. Sectors linked (directly or indirectly) to carbon-intensive processes adjust their investments to be competitive in a low-emission environment. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments. GDP growth rates are marginally affected in most regions by global efforts to reduce emissions. Crucially, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. Economic costs are reduced further when countries use emission permit auction revenues for other tax reductions. Delaying actions to stay below 2°C add large economic costs.
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182
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GECO 2016 Global Energy and Climate Outlook Road from Paris

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, July 16, 2016
Abstract in English: 
Abstract
This report examines the effects on greenhouse gases emissions and international energy markets of a Reference scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, of two scenarios where the UNFCCC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions have been included, and of a scenario in line with keeping global warming below a temperature increase of 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The report presents an updated version of the modelling work that supported DG CLIMA in the UNFCCC negotiations that resulted in the Paris Agreement of the COP21 in December 2015. In the Reference scenario, emissions trigger global warming above 3°C. In the INDC scenarios, regions adopt domestic policies that result in global changes in emissions and energy use, and would result, if pursued beyond 2030, in the long term in a global warming around 3°C; the INDCs cover 28-44% of the cumulated emissions reductions necessary to remain below a 2°C warming. In the 2°C scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. Reduction of non-CO2 emissions (34%), energy efficiency (20%) and the deployment of renewable energies (20%) are the main options contributing in the mitigation effort by 2030. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments in low-carbon and energy-efficient options. Global efforts to reduce emissions appears compatible with robust GDP growth is in most regions – in particular, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. The analysis uses the JRC-POLES and JRC-GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change.
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133
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Accelerating Climate Action: Refocusing Policies through a Well-being Lens

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, January 9, 2021
Abstract in English: 
This report builds on the OECD Well-being Framework and applies a new perspective that analyses synergies and trade-offs between climate change mitigation and broader goals such as health, education, jobs, as well as wider environmental quality and the resources needed to sustain our livelihoods through time. This report takes an explicitly political economy approach to the low-emissions transitions needed across five economic sectors (electricity, heavy industry, residential, surface transport, and agriculture) that are responsible for more than 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Synergies between emissions reduction and broader well-being objectives, such as reduced air pollution and improved health, increase the incentives for early mitigation action. At the same time, the impact of climate policies on issues such as the affordability of energy and jobs need to be taken into account to counter growing economic and social inequalities within and between countries. The report argues that reframing climate policies using a well-being lens is necessary for making visible such synergies and trade-offs; allowing decision-makers to increase the former and anticipate, manage and minimise the latter. This requires us to rethink societal goals in terms of well-being, reframe our measures of progress and refocus policy-making accordingly.
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Megatrends in Africa

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, December 4, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The reports are not academic research as such. The authors are academically qualified researchers, however, and they base their findings on academic studies. In this study, six major trends in Africa are defined as megatrends: population growth, climate change, urbanisation, migration, techno­logical development and democratic development.
Megatrends in Africa are deep and long-term transformation processes that are irreversible. They can and should be mitigated, but will inevitably require adaptation as well. The trends also have an element of foresight, in regards to how they are set to develop in the future.
All the megatrends are interlinked and affect each other. Population growth and climate change can be seen as mega-megatrends that have an especially strong effect on the other trends.
The study contains reports on all six megatrends, which are examined through a Pan-African lens. The study also includes a summary of all megatrends and the interaction of their effects.
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56
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Zero-carbon London: A plan for the next mayoral term

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, November 23, 2015
Abstract in English: 
London is not on pace to meet its current emissions target, a 60 per cent reduction by 2025. We call on the next mayor of London to pick up the pace – and provide a plan for how they could pursue an ambitious new target, for London to be a zero-carbon city by 2050.

This presentation-style report sets out nine 'Essentials' and 12 'Desirables' for the next mayor to deliver, if the 2050 emissions target is to be achieved. As well as providing benefits in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, many of these policies and investments will benefit Londoners by promoting economic growth, creating jobs, improving health and life expectancy, saving residents and businesses money and energy, and making London a nicer city to live in.

At the same time, London has a great opportunity to take a global leadership role in city-led climate change action, sharing with and learning from major towns and cities across the UK and internationally.
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28
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