Climate Strategy

Abstract
This report examines the effects on greenhouse gases emissions and international energy markets of a Reference scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, of two scenarios where the UNFCCC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions have been included, and of a scenario in line with keeping global warming below a temperature increase of 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The report presents an updated version of the modelling work that supported DG CLIMA in the UNFCCC negotiations that resulted in the Paris Agreement of the COP21 in December 2015. In the Reference scenario, emissions trigger global warming above 3°C. In the INDC scenarios, regions adopt domestic policies that result in global changes in emissions and energy use, and would result, if pursued beyond 2030, in the long term in a global warming around 3°C; the INDCs cover 28-44% of the cumulated emissions reductions necessary to remain below a 2°C warming. In the 2°C scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. Reduction of non-CO2 emissions (34%), energy efficiency (20%) and the deployment of renewable energies (20%) are the main options contributing in the mitigation effort by 2030. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments in low-carbon and energy-efficient options. Global efforts to reduce emissions appears compatible with robust GDP growth is in most regions – in particular, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. The analysis uses the JRC-POLES and JRC-GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change.

This Policy Paper comprises an Issue Brief and Background Report prepared by the OECD for the G7 Environment, Energy and Oceans Ministers. It outlines the rising risks faced by coastal communities, which are being exacerbated by climate change. It shows how governments can harness innovation in information, planning, financing and monitoring to help improve resilience of those areas to climate change, and emphasises the need for close engagement with coastal communities.

This report provides the first systematic review of national climate change impact, vulnerability and risk assessments across Europe. It is based on information about relevant multi-sectoral assessments reported from EEA member countries. The purpose of the report is to share experiences and knowledge and to highlight approaches and practical solutions that countries have used to produce and present their assessments.

Designing a new long-term climate strategy (LTCS) implies decisions about how to deal with important climate policy questions. These decisions will shape the strategy and therefore the European climate policy debate.
Given the different tasks an LTCS will need to perform, several coordinated strategy documents with clearly defined purposes will be needed: a sequence (or suite) of strategic documents that outline the EU’s decarbonisation strategy for different audiences.
Given the wide-ranging implications of the drive for net-zero emissions and the limited power of the European Commission to push through top-down legislation, soft instruments such as the LTCS are crucial. A transparent and participatory process in developing the LTCS is therefore vital to generate the buy-in from stakeholders that is necessary to underpin the climate policies that will meet the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement.