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Cyber Security

Smart Partnerships amid Great Power Competition: AI, China, and the Global Quest for Digital Sovereignty

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Publication date: 
Tuesday, January 12, 2021
Abstract in English: 
The report captures key takeaways from various roundtable conversations, identifies the challenges and opportunities that different regions of the world face when dealing with emerging technologies, and evaluates China’s role as a global citizen. In times of economic decoupling and rising geopolitical bipolarity, it highlights opportunities for smart partnerships, describes how data and AI applications can be harnessed for good, and develops scenarios on where an AI-powered world might be headed.
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20
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Munich Security Report 2020 - Westlessness

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Publication date: 
Friday, February 14, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The Munich Security Report 2020 provides an overview of major security policy challenges and features insightful data and analyses across selected geographic and thematic spotlights. In addition to its role as a trusted companion and conversation starter for the Munich Security Conference, the report series has also become a go-to resource for security professionals and the interested public around the world. The previous report was downloaded tens of thousands of times and received widespread coverage in German and international media.
The Munich Security Report 2020 analyzes current security policy developments in China, Europe, Russia and the United States, and furthermore examines regional dynamics in the Mediterranean, the Middle East and South Asia. In addition, it provides insights into the issues of space and climate security, as well as into the threats arising from new technologies and increasingly transnational right-wing extremism.
The Munich Security Report features a number of exclusive and unpublished materials. For the preparation of the report, the Munich Security Conference Foundation collaborated with renowned partner institutions, including the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), The Brookings Institution, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, International Crisis Group, The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), McKinsey & Company, Pew Research Center, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and the Zentrum für Osteuropa- und international Studien (ZOiS).
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102
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Alternate Cybersecurity Futures

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Alternate Cybersecurity Futures
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Publication date: 
Friday, September 6, 2019
Abstract in English: 
While cyberspace continues to enable tremendous commercial, humanitarian, and national security opportunities, it also breeds an expanded threat landscape of massive complexity. As innovation and new vulnerabilities emerge apace, responses to novel problems have remained reactive. A joint report by the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative and Emergent Futures Lab challenges this moribund thinking by developing three Alternate Cybersecurity Futures, scenarios to provide insight into what the future may look like and how policy can move from adaptation to critically urgent evolution. These futures are meant to spark a strategic dialogue and we hope others will expand upon and between them.
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Incentivizing responsible and secure innovation Principles and guidance for investors

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, July 3, 2019
Abstract in English: 
This report proposes an innovative focus on cybersecurity incentives for the investment community. Investors in innovation and technology-driven companies have a responsibility to ensure that cybersecurity is given priority in the early stages of product development. By ensuring cybersecurity from the outset – including features like security-by-design and security-by-default – investors can increase the likelihood of company success in the long term, promote more durable technology and improve overall cyber resilience. This report proposes principles for investors that will raise their internal cybersecurity awareness and offers a complete framework enabling investors to assess the cybersecurity preparedness of their target company.
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ESPAS Report 2019 : Global Trends to 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, April 5, 2019
Abstract in English: 
For something as unknown as the future, it appears to have become surprisingly predictable. A Google search of ‘future 2030’ yields more than 97 million results, all more or less claiming similar things: that 2030 will see a more connected, yet fragmented world, with hazardous shifts in demography and energy, and dangerous changes in technology, environment, and politics.
The future, while overall negative, appears to be a rather certain place.
This illusion of definitiveness is created by two dynamics: first, the pessimistic tone that runs through the vast majority of foresight reports. This is a common feature when it comes to future thinking, with one study showing that all studies undertaken on the future over the last 70 years have one thing in common; pessimism. The reason for this is simple: although both optimism and pessimism are natural human dispositions, the latter is more prevalent by far. Humans are, genetically speaking, biased towards the negative – some studies even indicate that this is particularly the case for Europeans. Second, pessimism in foresight is encouraged by the grave air that surrounds it: in general, negative statements are given more attention than positive ones. That said, more pessimism in foresight does not equal greater accuracy, as one study shows.
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52
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Strengthening the EU’s Cyber Defence Capabilities

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Publication date: 
Monday, November 26, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Cyber defence is critical to both the EU’s prosperity and security. Yet, the threat space it faces is vast in scope, highly interconnected, deeply complex, and rapidly evolving. The EU’s current cyber defence capacity remains fragmented across and siloed within various institutions, agencies. In order to secure its own use of cyberspace, the EU must be bold. The CEPS Task Force on Strengthening the EU's Cyber Defence Capabilities identified a clear EU-wide interest for greater coordination and cooperation in this space. After a comparative analysis of alternative scenarios, the Task Force concluded in favour of creating an EU Cyber Defence Agency with executive competencies and therefore, the ability to develop and utilise strategic and operational capabilities at the EU level. This would mark a critical step towards a more effective and collaborative approach to enhancing cyber security and resilience in the EU.
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88
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IBM Security: Future of Identity Study - Consumer perspectives on authentication: Moving beyond the password

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Publication date: 
Monday, January 15, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The concept of granting digital access to users based on proper identification has been the very core of how people access online services since the emergence of the public internet in the 1980s. The power of confirming an identity and being granted access to services of value has attracted billions of users to the internet, and as society moved to this parallel universe, so have other parts of it, namely fraudsters, con men and organized crime. In the past six years, USD 112 billion has been stolen through identity fraud, equating to USD 35,600 lost every minute. The more services are offered to the general public—with additional features for convenience and usability that rely on the internet—the wider the window of opportunity for attackers. Javelin Strategy Research expects fraud related to the creation of new online accounts to rise as much as 44 percent by 2018, increasing losses from USD 5 billion to USD 8 billion in a matter of four years. While consumer personal information has been compromised on an ongoing basis for years, the massive data breaches of 2017 removed all doubt: Criminals clearly have access to the very information that many banks, companies and other businesses use to grant their users remote access to services. Even social security numbers, which are considered highly private and sensitive personal information, were exposed for hundreds of millions of consumers in 2017. Recent data breaches have been a resounding wake-up call to the fact that new methods are needed to validate our identities online. In an era where personal information is no longer private, and passwords are commonly reused, stolen or cracked with various tools, the traditional scheme of accessing data and services by username and password has repeatedly shown to be inadequate.
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27
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Cyber Resilience Playbook for Public- Private Collaboration

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Publication date: 
Friday, January 12, 2018
Abstract in English: 
States have taken a variety of approaches to securing their digital domains. These policy approaches share a significant commonality: success depends on collaboration between the public and private sectors.
However, effective collaboration is uniquely difficult in the domain of cybersecurity. Cyberthreats are complex, with an ever-expanding and exposed surface for malicious actors to exploit. Each new innovation brings with it new and sometimes unexpected vulnerabilities.
Despite these challenges, advancing cyber resilience requires the public and private sectors to collaborate in new and innovative ways. This Playbook is recommended for use by the public and private sectors, together, as a tool to facilitate discussions on building the institutions, frameworks, policies, norms and processes necessary to support collaboration in this vital space.
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72
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The Global Risks Report 2018

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 17, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Last year’s Global Risks Report was published at a time of heightened global uncertainty and strengthening popular discontent with the existing political and economic order. The report called for “fundamental reforms to market capitalism” and a rebuilding of solidarity within and between countries. One year on, a global economic recovery is under way, offering new opportunities for progress that should not be squandered: the urgency of facing up to systemic challenges has, if anything, intensified amid proliferating indications of uncertainty, instability and fragility.
Humanity has become remarkably adept at understanding how to mitigate conventional risks that can be relatively easily isolated and managed with standard risk management approaches. But we are much less competent when it comes to dealing with complex risks in the interconnected systems that underpin our world, such as organizations, economies, societies and the environment. There are signs of strain in many of these systems: our accelerating pace of change is testing the absorptive capacities of institutions, communities and individuals. When risk cascades through a complex system, the danger is not of incremental damage but of “runaway collapse” or an abrupt transition to a new, suboptimal status quo.
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80
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Munich Security Report 2018: "To the Brink - and Back?"

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, February 16, 2018
Abstract in English: 
For international security, the year 2017 was marked – among others – by signs of a continued erosion of the so-called liberal international order and an increasingly unpredictable US foreign policy. Tensions in many parts of the world have been growing: the rhetoric between the US and North Korea has escalated, the rift in the Gulf has become deeper, not only between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and major arms control treaties are at stake. In the last year, the world got closer – much too close! – to the brink of significant conflict, and we must do whatever we can to move away from the brink.

It is in this context that the Munich Security Conference Foundation publishes its annual Munich Security Report (download the report as a PDF here). Under the heading "To the Brink - and Back?", the Munich Security Report 2018 provides an overview of major security policy issues and features data, analyses, maps and infographics. As a companion and impulse for the 54th edition of the Munich Security Conference, the Munich Security Report serves as background reading for conference participants, but is also made available to the general public. The last report was downloaded close to 35,000 times and received ample press coverage in both German and international media.

This year's main topics include the crises of the liberal international order and the impact of the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency. It also looks at the new momentum in European defense policy and the potential impact of Brexit. In addition, the report analyses regional developments in Central and Eastern Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. It also provides insights into the state of global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts, the issue of environmental and climate security as well as cyber security.
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88
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