Development in South Africa

Using updated population forecasts, this paper presents alternative growth scenarios for South Africa up to 2035, and their implications for employment, politics and poverty. ‘Bafana Bafana Redux’ is the expected current trajectory. This scenario takes into account the impact of policy incoherence and the electricity supply crisis on South Africa’s long-term prospects. With concerted effort and much greater focus, an improved future, dubbed 'Mandela Magic Lite’, is possible – but neither scenario has a significant impact on structural unemployment. South Africa will only achieve long-term stability and prosperity with a leadership committed to inclusive political and economic practices.

President Jacob Zuma appointed the National Planning Commission in May 2010 to draft a vision and national development plan. The Commission is an advisory body consisting of 26 people drawn largely from outside government, chosen for their expertise in key areas.
The Commission’s Diagnostic Report, released in June 2011, set out South Africa’s achievements and shortcomings since 1994. It identified a failure to implement policies and an absence of broad partnerships as the main reasons for slow progress, and set out nine primary challenges:
1. Too few people work
2. The quality of school education for black people is poor
3. Infrastructure is poorly located, inadequate and under-maintained
4. Spatial divides hobble inclusive development
5. The economy is unsustainably resource intensive
6. The public health system cannot meet demand or sustain quality
7. Public services are uneven and often of poor quality
8. Corruption levels are high
9. South Africa remains a divided society.

(...) This is a plan for South Africa. It provides a broad strategic framework to guide key choices and actions. Its success will depend on all South Africans taking responsibility for the plan, led by the President and Cabinet.This overview is a high-level summary of the plan. The 15 chapters address the major thematic areas in detail, providing evidence, recommendations and clear implementation frameworks.

Following publication of the plan, the Commission will focus on:
Mobilising society to support the plan, and exploring a social compact to reduce poverty and inequality through investment and employment.
Conducting research on critical issues affecting long-term development.
Advising government and social partners on implementing the plan.
Working with relevant state agencies to report on the progress of the objectives.