Europe

The European Union is charting a strategic path to becoming the first climate-neutral continent by 2050, grasping the opportunities of the digital age, building an economy that works for people, promoting the European way of life, strengthening our unique brand of responsible global leadership, and nurturing, protecting and strengthening our democracy. Openness, as well as rules-based international and multilateral cooperation, are strategic choices. They stimulate prosperity, fairness, stability, competitiveness and dynamism within the EU and beyond. The history of the European project demonstrates the benefits of well-managed interdependence and open strategic autonomy based on shared values, cohesion, strong multilateral governance and rules-based cooperation. The pandemic has only strengthened the case for international cooperation to address global challenges. This 2021 Strategic Foresight Report presents a forward-looking and multi-disciplinary perspective on the EU’s capacity and freedom to act in the coming decades. Based on an expert-led, cross-sectoral foresight process, it presents global trends, uncertainties and choices that will shape Europe’s future. The report provides the context for possible policy responses. It builds on the 2020 Strategic Foresight Report, which introduced resilience as a new compass for EU policymaking. Section II identifies important structural global trends towards 2050 that will affect the EU’s capacity and freedom to act: climate change and other environmental challenges; digital hyperconnectivity and technological transformations; pressure on democracy and values; shifts in the global order and demography. Section III sets out ten areas in which the EU could strengthen its open strategic autonomy and global leadership. The report stresses that the EU’s future capacity and freedom to act will depend on whether the EU is able to make ambitious choices today, guided by its values and interests, across the identified policy areas.

For something as unknown as the future, it appears to have become surprisingly predictable. A Google search of ‘future 2030’ yields more than 97 million results, all more or less claiming similar things: that 2030 will see a more connected, yet fragmented world, with hazardous shifts in demography and energy, and dangerous changes in technology, environment, and politics.
The future, while overall negative, appears to be a rather certain place.
This illusion of definitiveness is created by two dynamics: first, the pessimistic tone that runs through the vast majority of foresight reports. This is a common feature when it comes to future thinking, with one study showing that all studies undertaken on the future over the last 70 years have one thing in common; pessimism. The reason for this is simple: although both optimism and pessimism are natural human dispositions, the latter is more prevalent by far. Humans are, genetically speaking, biased towards the negative – some studies even indicate that this is particularly the case for Europeans. Second, pessimism in foresight is encouraged by the grave air that surrounds it: in general, negative statements are given more attention than positive ones. That said, more pessimism in foresight does not equal greater accuracy, as one study shows.

On September 25th 2017 the EIB hosted a workshop to debate skill(s) challenge(s) in Europe, their underlying drivers as well as ways to address them, including the role of (EU) policies and financing. One conclusion was that in order to promote skill development in Europe going forward, a better understanding of current gaps and mismatches is needed, together with a thorough assessment of what works and what not when it comes to policy measures.
To this end, this compilation brings together several contributions, including micro- and macro perspectives as well as specific country examples, to inform the current European debate.

This impact assessment accompanies the Commission proposal for Horizon Europe, the 2021-2027 EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, which will succeed the current Programme, Horizon 2020 (active between 2014-2020), and the proposal for the 2021-2025 Research and Training Programme of the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom Programme). The evolution from Horizon 2020 is reflected in the revamped structure. The three-pillar structure will be continued, but redesigned for more coherence, both between and within pillars, in support of the Programme objectives.
Pillar 1 - Open Science will continue to focus on excellent science and high-quality knowledge to strengthen EU’s science base.
Pillar 2 - Global Challenges and Industrial Competitiveness will better address EU policy priorities and support industrial competitiveness by integrating the Horizon 2020 Societal Challenges and Leadership in Enabling Industrial Technologies into five clusters (i.e. Health; Resilience and Security; Digital and Industry;Climate, Energy and Mobility; and Food and natural resources).
Pillar 3 – Open Innovation will offer a one-stop shop for high-potential innovators with the European Innovation Council and increase cooperation with innovation ecosystems and actors.