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ESPAS Report 2019 : Global Trends to 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, April 5, 2019
Abstract in English: 
For something as unknown as the future, it appears to have become surprisingly predictable. A Google search of ‘future 2030’ yields more than 97 million results, all more or less claiming similar things: that 2030 will see a more connected, yet fragmented world, with hazardous shifts in demography and energy, and dangerous changes in technology, environment, and politics.
The future, while overall negative, appears to be a rather certain place.
This illusion of definitiveness is created by two dynamics: first, the pessimistic tone that runs through the vast majority of foresight reports. This is a common feature when it comes to future thinking, with one study showing that all studies undertaken on the future over the last 70 years have one thing in common; pessimism. The reason for this is simple: although both optimism and pessimism are natural human dispositions, the latter is more prevalent by far. Humans are, genetically speaking, biased towards the negative – some studies even indicate that this is particularly the case for Europeans. Second, pessimism in foresight is encouraged by the grave air that surrounds it: in general, negative statements are given more attention than positive ones. That said, more pessimism in foresight does not equal greater accuracy, as one study shows.
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52
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The State of Data Innovation in the EU

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Publication date: 
Sunday, October 15, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Data innovation—the innovative use of data to create social and economic benefits—is making a significant mark in Europe.In economic terms, data innovation contributed about €300 billion to Europe’s economy in 2016 (or approximately 2 percent of GDP), and its value will likely more than double by 2020. Across society, data innovation is creating more responsive governments, better health care, and safer cities. But EU nations differ in the degree to which they are harnessing the benefits of data. This report uses a variety of indicators to rank EU member states and discusses why some countries are ahead and what others can do to catch up.
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116
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Western Options in a Multipolar World

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Publication date: 
Monday, November 27, 2017
Abstract in English: 
No one can know the future. China and Russia—who are currently challenging, albeit in different ways, the Western liberal order—face difficulties at home and could become inward-focused and disengaged. Nonetheless, almost thirty years after the end of the Cold War, geopolitics looks like it is poised for another turn of the wheel that may not be as favorable to Western interests.
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12
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Investing in Europe’s future: the role of education and skills

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Publication date: 
Monday, June 11, 2018
Abstract in English: 
On September 25th 2017 the EIB hosted a workshop to debate skill(s) challenge(s) in Europe, their underlying drivers as well as ways to address them, including the role of (EU) policies and financing. One conclusion was that in order to promote skill development in Europe going forward, a better understanding of current gaps and mismatches is needed, together with a thorough assessment of what works and what not when it comes to policy measures.
To this end, this compilation brings together several contributions, including micro- and macro perspectives as well as specific country examples, to inform the current European debate.
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60
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Trust at Risk: Implications for EU Policies and Institutions

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, February 1, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Using a foresight approach, this volume makes a major contribution to better understanding the disruptive effects that an erosion or collapse of trust could have for Europe: for its science, for its political and justice systems, for the regulation of economic activities, social cohesion, for public administrations and for the Internet and cyberspace in general. Its chapters elaborate not only on the potential disruptions, but also on possible policy responses to counteract a further loss of societal trust.
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198
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A New Horizon for Europe

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Publication date: 
Thursday, July 26, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This impact assessment accompanies the Commission proposal for Horizon Europe, the 2021-2027 EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation, which will succeed the current Programme, Horizon 2020 (active between 2014-2020), and the proposal for the 2021-2025 Research and Training Programme of the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom Programme). The evolution from Horizon 2020 is reflected in the revamped structure. The three-pillar structure will be continued, but redesigned for more coherence, both between and within pillars, in support of the Programme objectives.
Pillar 1 - Open Science will continue to focus on excellent science and high-quality knowledge to strengthen EU’s science base.
Pillar 2 - Global Challenges and Industrial Competitiveness will better address EU policy priorities and support industrial competitiveness by integrating the Horizon 2020 Societal Challenges and Leadership in Enabling Industrial Technologies into five clusters (i.e. Health; Resilience and Security; Digital and Industry;Climate, Energy and Mobility; and Food and natural resources).
Pillar 3 – Open Innovation will offer a one-stop shop for high-potential innovators with the European Innovation Council and increase cooperation with innovation ecosystems and actors.
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388
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The Future of the United States and Europe: An Irreplaceable Partnership

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, April 13, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The partnership between the United States and Europe has been an anchor of the world’s economic, political and security order for more than seven decades. The U.S. relationship with the European Union is the deepest in the world – but we should not take it for granted. Transatlantic relations are at a critical point in their history, and it is necessary to reassess their trajectory, as well as the prospects for EU-U.S. cooperation. In a new publication, CSIS, in partnership with Chatham House, assesses the top policy priorities on both sides of the Atlantic, identifying areas of potential cooperation as well as growing divergences to be managed. United States cooperation with Europe is essential to meeting global challenges – this is a conclusion that every U.S. administration has reached in the past 70 years. Our recommendations seek to strengthen that relationship and promote that community of democratic values that upholds the international order.
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51
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The Future of Europe Comparing Public and Elite Attitudes

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Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 20, 2017
Abstract in English: 
The European Union and its member states have faced almost a decade of political tumult. If the EU is to move beyond crisis management towards political and economic renewal, a prerequisite is to understand better the foundation of public and ‘elite’ attitudes to the EU, and where these align and diverge.
This paper is based on a unique survey conducted between December 2016 and February 2017 in 10 countries that polled two groups: a representative sample of 10,000 members of the public; and a sample of over 1,800 of Europe’s ‘elite’, individuals in positions of influence from politics, the media, business and civil society at local, regional, national and European levels.
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48
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L’Europe dont nous avons besoin

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, March 25, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Les Européens ont collectivement réussi à faire face à la crise financière des dernières années. Cet épisode majeur a néanmoins laissé de profondes traces. Dans ce contexte de rétablissement progressif, la construction européenne semble à présent particulièrement menacée par une double contestation. Externe, avec l’élection d’un président des États-Unis pourfendeur du projet européen et avec la politique expansionniste menée par Moscou. Interne, avec la progression continue de l’euroscepticisme, les divisions sur les questions migratoires et le départ programmé du Royaume-Uni.
Soixante ans après la signature du Traité de Rome, l’Europe souffre de ses désaccords et de l’absence d’un projet commun affirmé par ses États membres.
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182
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Europe in 2022: Alternative Futures

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, March 29, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Sixty years after the signing of the Treaty of Rome, Europe faces its greatest challenges, and possibly its sharpest turning point, since World War II. The spectrum of possible futures for Europe is wide, encompassing everything from rebirth to disintegration. But, a strong leap toward greater EU-wide integration—as was sometimes the outcome of earlier crises—seems unlikely at best. Instead, this seems a time for smaller steps toward more integration, most likely in response to specific challenges, including: stronger external border controls; enhanced eurozone governance; or a more capable Common Security and Defense Policy. If the positive option is modest integration, the alternative future is one dominated by a clear break with past integration. A presidential victory in May by France’s Marine Le Pen could splinter the European Union, sending it into a tailspin toward disintegration. Even if this dire forecast is avoided, Europe—and especially the European Union (EU)—will face challenges that push it into entirely new directions. If the United States withdraws from Europe, for example, will Europe be forced to accommodate Russian demands? Or will that challenge foster stronger security cooperation among a core set of nations, to counterbalance a weakening NATO? And if Europe’s economy continues on a slow-growth path, will it be able to afford to respond to the challenges it faces?
In this report, Europe in 2022: Alternative Futures, Frances Burwell’s transatlantic expertise joins Mathew Burrows’ deft trends analysis to offer a sobering look at the possible future for Europe with the hope of reigniting the bond between Americans and Europeans so that we may build a better future together.
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86
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