RSS:

Newsletter subscribe:

European Economy

Tomorrow’s Silk Road: Assessing an EU-China Free Trade Agreement – 2nd edition

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, June 25, 2018
Abstract in English: 
In developing its international trade strategy since 2006, the EU has placed a strong emphasis on concluding Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with dynamic East Asian economies. Until very recently, however, no explicit mention has been made of China – the region’s largest and most dynamic economy – as a possible candidate for an FTA with the EU. This oversight becomes even more glaring if one considers the magnitude of the economic intercourse that already exists today between these two trading partners. China is the logical sequel in the Union’s trade strategy for East Asia. This study attempts to provide a solid analytical basis for negotiations on an EU-China Free Trade Agreement (formally, Free Trade Area treaty). The first official suggestion for such an FTA, made by Chinese President Xi Jin Ping in the spring of 2014, has recently been considered, cautiously and under various conditions, by the EU as well.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
333
Share: 

Europe: What to watch out for in 2016-2017

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, January 15, 2016
Abstract in English: 
The European Union seems to be moving from one emergency to the next. Europe’s leaders are in crisis-fighting mode: reactive, improvising, often uncoordinated – but ultimately modestly successful.
The Eurozone has not splintered; Russia is smarting under Western sanctions; some burden-sharing on refugees has been agreed. Busy with short-term problems, however, Europeans have taken their eyes off more profound, long-term challenges. How the European Union copes with its immediate problems in the next couple of years will determine how the continent will fare in decades to come.
In this White Paper, we – the Global Agenda Council on Europe – are analysing some of the most pressing issues confronting the EU in 2016-2017. We present the choices that European leaders must make in the years ahead and explain how these could shape the Union’s medium to long-term development. To illustrate how different policy choices interact, we have drawn up two fictitious scenarios of how the EU could evolve in the next 10 years.
The immediate economic concerns that dominated the European agenda in 2008-2014 are lessening. The cyclical upswing in the European economy, however, must not make governments complacent about the need for reforms. Faced with stagnating or shrinking working-age populations, European countries simply must fix their productivity problem to generate long-term growth. In innovation and digitization, Europeans often seem obsessed with data privacy and protection rather than grasping new opportunities. The European Commission’s laudable attempts to integrate and improve EU markets – for example, for energy and capital – have so far been slow to get off the ground. The arrival of millions of migrants, asylum seekers and refugees is a great opportunity for an ageing Europe, but only if governments, together with the private sector, act swiftly to help the new arrivals find jobs.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Number of pages: 
17
Share: 

Project Europe 2030. Challenges and opportunities

Title Original Language: 
Projet pour l'Europe à l'horizon 2030
Abstract Original Language: 
Rapport du groupe de réflexion au Conseil européen sur l'avenir de l'UE à l'horizon 2030.

Ce groupe de réflexion indépendant a été créé par le Conseil européen; présidé par M. González, il a été chargé de déterminer, d'étudier et de proposer des solutions aux défis que l'UE devra relever à l'horizon 2030. Il se compose de 12 membres qui sont d'éminents représentants de leurs domaines d'activité respectifs. L'avis d'experts du monde universitaire et du monde de l'entreprise a également été sollicité.

Ce rapport au Conseil européen dresse la liste d'un large éventail de problèmes auxquels l'UE et les États membres sont confrontés, comme la crise économique mondiale et les États venant au secours des banques, le changement climatique et l'approvisionnement énergétique, ainsi que les menaces que font peser le terrorisme et la criminalité organisée.

Le groupe de réflexion est convaincu que l'UE peut surmonter ces difficultés, si chacun, hommes et femmes politiques et citoyens, sont décidés à se mobiliser et à agir avec détermination pour donner corps à cet ambitieux projet politique. Par conséquent, il est essentiel que les citoyens soutiennent l'Union et participent à son développement.

Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Abstract in English: 
A report to the European Council by the Reflection Group on the Future of the EU 2030.

The independent Reflection Group was set up by the European Council under the chair of Mr. González to identify, analyse and propose solutions to the challenges the EU will be facing at the horizon 2030. It is composed of 12 members with outstanding expertise in their field of activity. They have also sought the opinion of experts from the academic and business worlds.

This report to the European Council lists a wide range of problems with which the EU and member states are confronted, for instance the global economic crisis and states coming to the rescue of banks, climate change and energy supply as well as the threats of terrorism and organised crime.

The Reflection Group is convinced that the EU can overcome the difficulties, if everybody - politicians and citizens - are decided to pull together and act in a decisive manner to develop this ambitious political project. It is therefore essential that citizens back up the Union and participate in its further development.

File: 
Country of publication: 
File Original Language: 
Cover page image: 
Country Original Language: 
Share: 

Regional challenges in the perspective of 2020. Regional disparities and future challenges - Globalisation

Author: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, February 1, 2014
Abstract in English: 
"This paper provides a concise analysis of the potential impact of globalisation on regional income disparities in Europe and of the role of neighbouring countries in this process in the period up to 2020.
The analysis is part of a broader project of DG REGIO, which, together with the World Bank and the Bertelsmann Foundation, has established the Regional Future Initiative, a network of experts looking at the future of regional trends. The objective of the network is to analyse and build a consensus on the future impacts of key challenges (globalisation, climate change, demographic change and migration, energy risks and social polarisation) that regions will face in the perspective of 2020 and to elaborate and discuss possible responses. The output of the network should provide a basis for policy discussion and choices in the coming years.
The paper is based upon a new analysis produced by the Regional Future network itself as well as prior research by international institutions and scholars. The project covers 5 challenges and the discussion of each challenge has been designed to avoid overlaps so far as possible. In the final phase the analysis of each challenge will be merged to produce two broad scenarios for European regions in 2020.

(...) After a review of relevant literature and hypotheses, the paper proceeds to examine the characteristics and dimensions of globalization as it affects Europe and neighbouring regions. The analysis focusses on countries first and then on regions (NUTS2). At the country level, the scope of the analysis is wider and benefits from the extensive availability and reliability of national data. The more limited availability of data at the regional level narrows down the scope of the exercise but nevertheless allows us to point out peculiar geographical patterns which are particularly relevant to cohesion.
The country-level analysis of globalisation (§ 2.1-2.2) provides a basis for examining the strength of individual Member States in different branches of trade (manufactures, services, raw materials and energy etc.) and other external income sources. A set of indicators is then used to calculate an index of sensitivity of individual regions in the face of globalization opportunities and pressures (§ 2.3). Three groups of regions are identified on the basis of this index: highly beneficiary, intermediate and vulnerable regions.
The final chapter looks forward to 2020 and considers prospects for European countries under two different scenarios for the world economy and European economy as a whole (§ 3.1-2). Finally, by combining insights stemming from the country-level analysis and the index of regional sensitivity the paper assesses the potential impacts of globalisation on regions in 2020 (§ 3.3)".
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Share: 

The 2012 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the 27 EU Member States (2010-2060)

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
This report analyses the economic and budgetary impact of an ageing population over the long-term.

In 2010, the ECOFIN Council gave the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) a mandate to update its common exercise of age-related expenditure projections by 2012 on the basis of a new population projection by Eurostat.

The long-term age-related expenditure projections provide an indication of the timing and scale of changes in economic developments that could result from an ageing population in a ‘no-policy change’ scenario. The projections show where (in which countries), when, and to what extent ageing pressures will accelerate as the baby-boom generation retires and average life span in the EU continues to increase. Hence, the updated projections of age related expenditure and the associated sustainability assessments provide important insights on both the economic impact of ageing and the risks to the long-term sustainability of Member States’ public finances reflecting new economic environment, affected by a durable impact of the current crisis, and further reform effort by EU MS.
This report, presented to the ECOFIN council in May 2012, details the expenditure projections covering pensions, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers for all Member States.

The report is structured in two parts. The first describes the assumptions underlying the population projection, the labour force projection and the other macroeconomic assumptions. The second part presents the projection of expenditure on pensions, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers. A statistical annex gives a country-by-country overview of the main assumptions and results.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Share: 
Topics: 

Quelle France dans 10 ans? An introduction to the governmental seminar

Title Original Language: 
Quelle France dans 10 ans? Contribution au séminaire gouvernemental
Abstract Original Language: 
Préparée en juillet-août 2013 par un groupe d’experts du CGSP, cette note a été conçue pour servir d’introduction au séminaire gouvernemental du 19 août 2013.
Elle propose des éléments de constat et des pistes de réflexion sur les perspectives à horizon de dix ans et esquisse une approche pour l’élaboration d’une stratégie à moyen terme, mais ne prétend ni faire un inventaire des questions, ni fixer les termes d’une réponse. Son objectif principal est d’ouvrir une discussion.

En 1985, Jean-Pierre Chevènement, alors ministre de l’Éducation nationale, lance l’objectif d’amener avant l’an 2000 80 % d’une classe d’âge au niveau du baccalauréat. La proportion de bacheliers stagne alors depuis plusieurs années en dessous de 30 %. Dix ans plus tard, en 1995, elle dépasse 60 %. Il y a, bien sûr, matière à critiquer les effets collatéraux d’une mutation aussi rapide. Mais le pays, qui compte 500 000 étudiants de plus, a commencé de combler son retard éducatif. L’accès aux études supérieures ne sera plus l’apanage d’une minorité. L’objectif était clair et mobilisateur ; l’action a porté ses fruits.

Notre histoire récente offre d’autres exemples de même type : plan d’équipement télécoms et programme d’indépendance énergétique dans les années 1970 ; mise en place de la monnaie européenne dans les années 1990 ; processus de Bologne sur l’harmonisation des systèmes universitaires européens ou plan cancer dans les années 2000. À chaque fois un objectif lointain a été fixé, qui paraissait souvent irréaliste lorsqu’il a été formulé. Il a orienté l’action publique, guidé les anticipations et catalysé les énergies. Quoi qu’on pense de ces entreprises, aussi critique qu’on puisse être à l’égard des effets indésirables de telle ou telle d’entre elles, force est de reconnaître leur ambition et l’ampleur des changements qu’elles ont entraînés.

Autour de nous plusieurs pays avancés ont, en une décennie, réalisé des transformations de grande ampleur. L’Allemagne de Gerhard Schröder vient immédiatement à l’esprit : en mars 2003, au moment où le chancelier présente son programme de réformes, le pays fait figure d’homme malade de l’Europe. Dix ans après les inégalités de revenu se sont accrues, mais le chômage est à son plus bas et la prospérité économique du pays est insolente. On peut citer aussi la Suède, où la crise financière du début des années 1990 a été l’occasion d’un réexamen qui a préservé les fondements du modèle social tout en redéfinissant ses modalités d’application. Sa réussite est particulièrement frappante en comparaison de l’évolution du Japon, qui a lui aussi subi une crise financière violente au début des années 1990, mais n’a pas su prendre ses difficultés à bras-le-corps (voir Annexe). On peut enfin mentionner, dans le domaine international, les Objectifs de développement du millénaire. Dans un contexte économique, il est vrai, favorable, ces objectifs ont permis de concentrer les efforts et nombre d’entre eux sont en passe d’être atteints dès avant l’échéance de 2015.

Tous ces exemples montrent qu’à condition de viser loin et de se fixer des objectifs clairs, l’action publique n’a pas perdu sa capacité transformatrice. Dix ans, c’est le bon horizon pour des décisions structurantes qui :

■éclairent l’avenir ;
■donnent continuité à l’action publique par-delà les alternances politiques ;
■permettent de sortir de la logique paramétrique – combien en plus, combien en moins – pour mettre l’accent sur des changements qualitatifs ;
■conduisent à raisonner sur les stocks – de compétences, d’équipements, de logements, de dette – qui déterminent le bien-être d’une nation, et plus seulement sur les flux ;
■amènent les institutions à se réformer pour servir les objectifs qui leur ont été assignés.
Cinq ans, c’est l’horizon du politique mais dix ans, c’est celui de la société. La perspective décennale est à la fois assez rapprochée pour mobiliser les énergies d’une collectivité autour de l’avenir qu’elle veut se construire, et assez éloignée pour que les investissements institutionnels ou matériels destinés à y conduire portent leurs fruits. Pour les mêmes raisons, elle est propice à la délibération et à la concertation.

Notre société, cependant, a depuis plusieurs années une vision brouillée de son avenir. C’est un handicap, car l’absence d’une perspective commune dans laquelle nos concitoyens se reconnaissent et puissent se projeter affaiblit le collectif et favorise les comportements de chacun-pour-soi. C’est aussi une source d’interrogations pour nos partenaires et les observateurs internationaux qui ne comprennent plus bien à quoi notre pays aspire et ne discernent plus quels moyens il se donne pour atteindre ses objectifs.

Réfléchir à ce que nous voulons être dans dix ans, en débattre, fixer sur cette base des orientations, et engager les actions correspondantes peut aider à remobiliser un pays aujourd’hui désorienté. La France de 2013 n’est plus celle des années 1970 ou même des années 1990. Les urgences et les priorités ne sont plus les mêmes. L’État n’est plus en situation de décider pour la société dans son ensemble. Mais répondre aux questions qui se posent à nous demande toujours continuité et cohérence. La valeur de la méthode demeure.

Dans cette perspective, la présente note est organisée en trois parties. La première fournit un cadrage prospectif sommaire sur le monde, l’Europe et la France à horizon de dix ans. La deuxième met l’accent sur trois choix collectifs d’importance pour la société française. La troisième offre des éléments de méthode et des points de repère pour l’élaboration d’une stratégie à dix ans.

Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, August 19, 2013
Abstract in English: 
This briefing paper has been designed as an introduction to the governmental seminar held on August 19th, 2013. It was prepared during July-August 2013 by a group of experts from the CGSP. It includes comments and ideas for discussion concerning a ten-year horizon and sketches out an approach for developing a medium-term strategy, without in any way claiming to raise all the questions or provide suitable answers. Its principal aim is to initiate discussion on the agenda.

Thinking and debating about what the French people wish to be ten years from now, fixing the roadmap ahead on the basis of such discussion, and implementing the actions to be taken will enable the country to come out from its current confusion. France in 2013 is not the France of the 1970s, nor even that of the 1990s. The priorities and urgencies of today are not the same as they were. The State is no longer able to decide for society as a whole. Continuity and consistency are essential to address the issues to be tackled, and adopting a rigorous method will be extremely worthwhile. In this context, the current briefing paper is divided into three sections. The first provides a brief snapshot of the world, of Europe, and of France in the next ten years. The second dwells on three key collective choices that are particularly important for French society. The third suggests methodological elements and some reference points as an aid to producing a ten-year strategy.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Country Original Language: 
Share: 
Topics: 

What project for Europe? An introduction to the national debate "Quelle France dans 10 ans?"

Title Original Language: 
Quel projet pour l'Europe? Note d'introduction au débat national "Quelle France dans 10 ans?"
Abstract Original Language: 
L’Europe apparaît parfois comme la responsable des difficultés françaises ou, inversement, comme le seul espoir de demeurer un acteur qui pèse sur la scène mondiale. Au-delà de telles positions tranchées, l’évidence est que les futurs de la France et de l’Europe sont de facto très liés. Il est donc nécessaire pour la France de clarifier sa manière d’être à l’initiative pour aider l’Europe à se redresser.

Jamais les incertitudes sur l’avenir de l’intégration européenne n’ont été aussi fortes. Ses difficultés à créer une prospérité partagée et un horizon de progrès social, à constituer une valeur ajoutée incontestable dans la compétition mondiale et une ambition partagée par les peuples ont érodé l’élan européen. La crise de la zone euro et les divergences entre pays sont venues accentuer la perception d’une Europe à l’édifice institutionnel inachevé, qui n’a pas clarifié ses intentions sur les buts à atteindre, et dont les décisions s’élaborent trop loin des citoyens. La valeur de l’Union persiste pourtant, qu’il s’agisse de faire de son marché de 500 millions de consommateurs un levier de croissance et d’influence ou de porter des valeurs de paix, de démocratie et de progrès économique et social.

Pour que la France joue un rôle moteur dans le renouveau du projet européen et de son idéal de prospérité partagée, il lui faut clarifier son ambition. Une refondation du marché unique est-elle possible ? Au sein de la zone euro, un progrès parallèle de la responsabilité budgétaire et de la solidarité est-il possible ? Partage des risques et partage de la souveraineté peuvent-ils aller de pair ? Une union politique est-elle souhaitable et sur quelle base ?

Comment envisager la question des frontières européennes ? À quels efforts sommes-nous prêts pour la stabilité et la prospérité de nos voisins ? Quelles sont, au total, les conditions économiques et politiques requises pour que la France s’inscrive avec succès dans une stratégie ambitieuse de refondation européenne ? Telles sont quelques-unes des questions que nous devons nous poser aujourd’hui.

Contributeurs : Marine Boisson, Etienne Espagne, Cécile Jolly, Jean-Paul Nicolaï, François Vielliard.

Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, September 26, 2013
Abstract in English: 
There has never been so much uncertainty concerning the future of European integration. Its difficulties in creating a shared prosperity and a socially progressive outlook, in generating incontestable added value against global competition and in fostering an ambition espoused by its citizens have depleated the energy of Europe. The Eurozone crisis and the divergence between countries have heightened the perception of Europe as an incomplete institutional framework that has failed to make its intentions clear in order to attain its objectives, and in which the decision-making process is too far removed from citizens. Nevertheless, the value of the Union remains, whether in terms of making its 500 million-strong consumer market a lever for growth and influence or of upholding the values of peace, democracy and economic and social progress. In order for France to play a dynamic role in the European project and its ideal of shared prosperity, its ambitions must be made clear. Can the single market be reformulated? Within the eurozone, can there be parallel progress in budgetary responsibility and solidarity? Can risks and sovereignty be shared? Is political union desirable and on what basis? How should the debate on European borders be framed? To what lengths are we prepared to go for the stability and prosperity of our neighbours? In sum, what are the economic and political conditions required in order for France successfully to pursue an ambitious strategy of European renewal? These are some of the questions that we are required to address at this time.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Country Original Language: 
Share: 
Topics: 

Global Trends 2030: challenges and opportunities for Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
Abstract in English: 
This report was written for the Transatlantic Partnership for the Global Future, a project organized in cooperation with the Government of Sweden, to bring together experts from government, business, and academia to address critical questions relating emerging technologies to global challenges and explore their effects on transatlantic relations in the near- and long-term.

Over the next generation, Europe will be buffeted by waves of transformation. The reaction to the economic crisis, the rapid empowerment of individuals thanks to the growth of information technology, the reality of climate change, the diffusion of power across the globe, and demographic changes will shape the continent’s future. We are approaching an inflection point that could lead to a future of economic and political volatility and zero-sum behavior of inward-looking nationalisms; a more collaborative rules based world marked by cooperative efforts at global problem-solving; or perhaps most likely, some hybrid featuring elements of both. Tailored to address the distinct challenges Europe faces, this report draws upon the US National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds and provides further, in-depth analysis on the policy priorities and opportunities for Europe in the future.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Share: 

Future Global Shocks. Improving Risk Governance

Keywords: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Abstract in English: 
Recent global shocks, such as the 2008 financial crisis, have driven policy makers and industry strategists to re-examine how to prepare for and respond to events that can begin locally and propagate around the world with devastating effects on society and the economy. This report considers how the growing interconnectedness in the global economy could create the conditions and vectors for rapid and widespread disruptions. It looks at examples of hazards and threats that emerge from the financial world, cyberspace, biological systems and even the solar system, to reflect on what strategic capacities are called for to improve assessment, mapping, modelling, response and resilience to such large scale risks.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Share: 
Topics: 

The G-20: A Pathway to Effective Multilateralism?

Keywords: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, April 1, 2011
Abstract in English: 
The emergence of the G-20 as the primary forum of world economic cooperation is one of the most significant developments in global governance in the twenty-first century. It is linked to the ongoing transformation of the world order as well as the recognised need to find global solutions to problems which are progressively acquiring global dimensions. Against this background, the emergence of the G-20 has been seen as providing further evidence of the increasingly multipolar order and signalling the end of the West’s domination of the world economy and politics. On the other hand, it has been viewed as a response to the increasing interdependence forged by globalisation. Relatedly, its development has been associated with a poorly functioning global governance system.
File: 
Country of publication: 
Cover page image: 
Share: 

Pages

Subscribe to RSS - European Economy