Abstract in English:
A decade after the beginning of the global financial crisis, the fallout continues to reshape the financial system. Gross cross-border capital flows are 65 percent lower in absolute terms than they were in 2007, representing a sharp break from the past. Roughly half of the decline is due to large European and US banks retrenching from foreign markets. But these developments do not signal an end to financial globalization—although there will be risks. Rather, we see a healthy correction from pre-crisis excesses, and a return to a potentially more stable and risk-sensitive era of financial globalization. Lessons have been learned. Moreover, we are beginning to see global finance broaden to a larger number of countries and players, many of them developing economies that are becoming more financially connected. Looking forward, we see that global finance is set for another major disruption. The increasing presence of new financial technologies, including digital platforms for financial transactions, blockchain, and machine learning, have the potential to reinforce financial globalization by making it faster and cheaper to transact across borders—but may also pose new challenges.