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Future

Back to the Future of Education: Four OECD Scenarios for Schooling

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Abstract in English: 
Close your eyes for a second and think of something that happened over the last 20 years and you would have never expected to occur. Be it the pandemic, smart phones or something else, the truth is that the future likes to surprise us.
Our world is in a perpetual state of change. There are always multiple versions of the future—some are assumptions, others hopes and fears. To prepare, we have to consider not only the changes that appear most probable, but also the ones that we aren’t expecting.
Inspired by the ground-breaking 2001 Schooling for Tomorrow scenarios, this book provides a set of scenarios on the future of schooling, showing not a single path into the future, but many. Using these scenarios can help us identify the opportunities and challenges that these futures could hold for schooling and education more broadly. We can then use those ideas to help us better prepare and act now.
Whether parents or students, teachers or educational leaders, researchers or policy makers, this book has been written for all those who want to think about futures that haven’t occurred to play their part in shaping the future that will.
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76
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Looking Beyond Coronabonds: What Covid-19 Means for the Future of the Eurozone

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Looking Beyond Coronabonds: What Covid-19 Means for the Future of the Eurozone
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, April 30, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The pandemic has created an unprecedented level of uncertainty, mainly because we do not know how long it will last. This affects the economic implications. Two facts are clear: there will be a recession and budget deficits will have to soar. This note draws some implications beyond the immediate health concerns. In many ways, they challenge the architecture of the Eurozone. Either the architecture will change or the Eurozone as we know it will cease to exist. During the sovereign debt crisis from 2010 to 2015, the architecture was changed just as the Eurozone was on the verge of losing one or more members, with unmeasurable consequences. Will history repeat itself?
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11
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Global Future Council on New Network Technologies 5G: Society’s Essential Innovation Technology

Title Original Language: 
Global Future Council on New Network Technologies 5G: Society’s Essential Innovation Technology
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 30, 2020
Abstract in English: 
Many challenges faced by society today will be addressed and supported by advanced technologies that are able to harness, analyse and connect massive datasets. One of these will be fifth-generation mobile networks, or 5G, which will provide a new foundational communications capability that brings humans and devices into a common orbit built around distributed, near instantaneous interactions. By bringing the power of computing closer to data sources through 5G networks, previously unsolvable problems can now become a reality. The World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on New Network Technologies, during its 2018-2020 term, focused on the benefits to society and the role of partnerships between government and the private sector when it comes to network technologies. It also explored the incentives for network development and the distribution of value throughout the 5G environment, as well as the role of new systems in driving value and innovation. This document reflects the various discussions among Council Members and its extended community.
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16
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Global risks 2035 update: Decline or new renaissance?

Title Original Language: 
Global risks 2035 update: Decline or new renaissance?
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Abstract in English: 
In the best case, we forecast a world headed toward multipolarity with limited multilateralism. At worst, we projected a multipolarity that devolved into another Cold War bipolarity—with China, Russia, and their partners pitted against the United States, Europe, Japan, and other allies. In that scenario, war seemed inevitable. The fracturing of the post-Cold War global system would be accompanied by internal fraying caused by technological advances. No one was spared. Robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), 3D printing, and automation were already upending both skilled and unskilled occupations in the developed world. As the cost of robots came down and automation and 3D printing spread, still-struggling emerging markets could no longer rely on lower labor costs, as China did to fuel its rise. This is a far cry from the earlier notion that globalization and technological change would “lift all boats.” Under any scenario, many of the poorest of the developing countries will face stiffer, potentially existential, challenges linked to climate change, poor governance, higher incidences of civil conflict, and overpopulation. Climate change will impact everyone in the coming decades, but the poorest areas—sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia—will be hit hardest by increasing temperatures and rising sea levels.
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88
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Unexpected Developments in International Politics. Foresight Contributions 2018

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, September 5, 2018
Abstract in English: 
How might we have to imagine the Middle East if there were a political thaw between Iran and Saudi Arabia? Could Turkey leave NATO in the near future? What would happen if security-related EU databases were successfully hacked; if South Korea were to arm itself with nuclear weapons; or if an American woman were to head the United Nations? Of course, these situations, as explored in the SWP’s latest Foresight research paper, are only hypothetical. Why address them? Because unexpected events have abounded in international politics in recent years. Brexit; the election of Donald Trump as US President; and Russia’s annexation of Crimea are only the most striking examples. Science and politics should therefore ready themselves for likely future surprises. The Foresight research paper aims to assist with this. We cannot and do not want to predict the future. However, with the help of systematic foresight we can better prepare for unplanned situations. This means improving our view of conceivable – albeit unlikely – developments that would seriously impact on German and European foreign and security policy. It also includes reviewing previous expectations – as this research paper likewise tackles. What actually happened to the battery revolution that was supposed to secure our power supply? Did the negotiation process on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU unfold as experts had anticipated? Such reviews are instructive, and can be used to gain insights for the future.
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50
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Global Trends to 2030: New Ways out of Poverty and Exclusion

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 9, 2019
Abstract in English: 
This paper analyses the issues of poverty and exclusion in the context of the major trends that characterise the present and will shape the near future. It also explores the uncertainty that emerging trends may pose for EU societies in terms of poverty and exclusion, and looks at options and alternative paths to counteract these two phenomena.
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20
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Future of Food : Maximizing Finance for Development in Agricultural Value Chains

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, April 16, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Current levels of investment in agricultural value chains are insufficient to achieve key development goals including ending poverty and hunger, boosting shared prosperity through more and better jobs, and better stewarding the world’s natural resources by 2030. Crowding-in private investment to help achieve these goals and optimizing the use of scarce public resources will be needed, as will the continued promotion of good governance and environmental and social sustainability. Increasing private sector investment and associated financing will require identifying and understanding market failures currently leading to the sub-optimal private provision of goods and services needed to achieve key development goals. Where the private sector is already investing in agricultural value chains, promoting responsible investment can help increase development impacts. Crowding-in more private investment requires increasing the space for private sector activity, improving the policy and regulatory environment, and considering options for using public financing to improve private incentives and to reduce transaction costs and risks, including blended finance solutions. While these actions can help induce more private investment, there is still a critical need for public resources to finance essential public goods and services such as human capital, agricultural research, and complementary public infrastructure
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44
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The Global Risks Report 2019

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Abstract in English: 
Is the world sleepwalking into a crisis? Global risks are intensifying but the collective will to tackle them appears to be lacking. Instead, divisions are hardening. The world’s move into a new phase of strongly state-centred politics, noted in last year’s Global Risks Report, continued throughout 2018. The idea of “taking back control”— whether domestically from political rivals or externally from multilateral or supranational organizations— resonates across many countries and many issues. The energy now expended on consolidating or recovering national control risks weakening collective responses to emerging global challenges. We are drifting deeper into global problems from which we will struggle to extricate ourselves.
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114
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Global Future Survey 1/2017

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, July 5, 2017
Abstract in English: 
554 experts from 105 countries - these are their opinions and assessments on developments in the next five years. With the Global Future Survey, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation is beginning a special project.
The results of the first interviews in early 2017 make it clear: The Federal Republic of Germany enjoys a very good reputation around the world. Furthermore, young talent increasingly want to come to Germany. European experts judge that the Federal Republic should assume more responsibility in Europe and the majority of experts rank protection of human rights and the rule of law as their country’s most pressing duty. In Europe and internationally, the greatest danger to the stability of states is seen as populistic tendencies.
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Two futures and how to reconcile them

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, November 3, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Although there is little argument about the fact that climate change and the digitalisation of the economy are the two main trends that will matter most over the coming decades, to date they have predominantly been considered separately rather than together. The first step towards shaping our future is being able to think about it, however, and the compartmentalisation of research efforts (climate change on the one hand and digitalisation on the other) is unhelpful in this respect. Yet cross-cutting investigations present a challenge since the academic communities and social dynamics underlying both fields of research are entirely distinct. The aim of this Foresight Brief is therefore merely to initiate a debate by analysing the different versions of these two narratives. The author then examines the potential interrelation and ranking of these narratives and explores the emergence of digital and green capitalism and its consequences. The publication concludes by proposing a scenario involving a two-step approach to change.
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11
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