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Geopolitics (World Power Transition)

 

 

The Global Innovation Sweepstakes: A Quest to Win the Future

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The world is on the cusp of an unprecedented technological revolution, one that will have far-reaching social, economic, and geostrategic consequences.How the United States and other major actors position themselves as innovators and adaptors of emerging technologies will determine their economic fate and geostrategic standing.
This report seeks to answer the fundamental questions raised by the unfolding technological revolution.
The key recommendations in this report deal not just with the potential problems between states, but also address some of the inequities that are growing within societies due in part to emerging technologies.
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108
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Meeting Security Challenges in a Disordered World

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 6, 2017
Abstract in English: 
Today the world faces a volatile convergence of instability, state weakness, and conflict. Lethal civil conflicts rage in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya, and South Sudan, stoking regional rivalries, offering safe havens to violent extremist groups, and triggering immense and unprecedented humanitarian crises. Even in regions and states where overt conflict is absent, such as West Africa or Central America, institutional and economic weakness creates unstable conditions that may enflame low level shocks or simmering criminal activity. At times resolution of these conditions may prove elusive and intervention fruitless; however, sometimes security challenges emerging in these environments require immediate and direct response.

The United States must be prepared to operate in a range of complex environments to meet a range of security challenges and threats, such as humanitarian emergencies, terrorism and violent extremism, great power aggression, health security crises, and international criminal violence. This study focuses on these five functional security imperatives and illustrates each imperative through regionally or subnationally defined operating environments. In each case, the selected security imperative must be addressed in the near term to help meet other U.S. objectives. The goal of the case studies is to characterize the operating environment, identify key tasks and responsibilities to address the security imperative, and develop a set of tools and policy recommendations for operating in those specific environments.
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130
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Our World Transformed: Geopolitical Shocks and Risks

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Publication date: 
Monday, April 24, 2017
Abstract in English: 
No one can be complacent about geopolitical risks these days. The shocks and surprises of the past few years show how easily assumptions about liberal markets, international relations, conflict, and democracy can be shaken. Geopolitical volatility has become a key driver of uncertainty, and will remain one over the next few years.
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31
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Noopolitics: The Power of Knowledge

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, November 27, 2015
Abstract in English: 
Geopolitics is the interaction between power and land. Noopolitics is the interaction between power and knowledge. This interaction is both reflexive and disruptive. It implies a profound change to geopolitics and the art of governance, because it is concerned with the art of allowing knowledge to reign over power. Above all, it aims to avoid the current situation whereby power reigns over knowledge, which has resulted in our most brilliant minds handing over their sciences to States, sciences that should be put at the service of humankind and peace. Noopolitics recognises the existence of a noosphere, which is an ocean of knowledge with which all States share a coastline and which they can use to make up for any deficiencies in their kinesphere, the sphere of their freedom of movement. As such, it is restricted States that are forced to innovate; all States are cognitive but their cognitive immaturity nevertheless results in them waiting to be restricted before they innovate – as with the example of China today. States, like individuals, are also unaware of their best interests, acting in accordance with a very limited rationale. While traditional geopolitics asserts that States are motivated by the acquisition of power over others, for its part noopolitics asserts that the only source of power is power over the self. This is the basis for state stoicism. Ultimately, wars can only exist due to the coexistence of knowledge and ignorance: knowledge is needed to cause the enemy harm, and ignorance to harm the conflict itself. Faced with absolute knowledge, wars can no longer exist.
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56
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Spain in the World 2033

Title Original Language: 
España en el mundo 2033
Abstract Original Language: 
En 2033, el escenario geopolítico global será radicalmente distinto al actual. Las potencias occidentales habrán perdido peso en favor de nuevos bloques regionales -de carácter económico y político-, que competirán entre sí y que tenderán a proteger sus propios mercados e impulsar, al tiempo, flujos de inversión directa.
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, April 1, 2014
Abstract in English: 
By 2033, the global geopolitical scene will have radically changed. Both economically and politically, western powers will have lost their prominence in favour of new regional blocks. These rising poles will compete among themselves and are likely to protect their own markets; after a while they will become sources of direct investment.
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The world in 2025

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Abstract in English: 
Recent developments in the world and the strong European commitment to a regulating globalisation argue in favour of a forward looking analysis. “The World in 2025” first underlines the major future trends: geopolitical transformations in terms of population, economic development, international trade and poverty. Secondly, it identifies the likely tensions: natural resources (food, energy, water and minerals), migrations or urbanisation. Finally, it defines possible transitional pathways: towards a new production and consumption model, towards new rural-urban dynamics, towards a new gender and intergenerational balance. “Rising Asia and socio-ecological transition” is the explicit sub-title that could be an inspiring source for the future strategy of the European Union.
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Strategic trends 2011 - Key developments in global affairs

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Abstract in English: 
Strategic Trends is an annual publication of the Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich. It offers a concise analysis of major developments in world affairs, with a primary focus on international security. Providing succinct interpretations of key trends rather than a comprehensive survey of events, Strategic Trends targets a broad audience ranging from analysts to policy-makers, the media, academics, and the interested public.
Strategic Trends 2011 is the second issue of the Strategic Trends series. It contains a brief overview as well as chapters on global power shifts and fractured geopolitics, changing regional dynamics in the Middle East, terrorism and counterterrorism ten years after 9/11, and narcotics as a growing security concern.
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The New Global Puzzle. What World for the EU in 2025?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Abstract in English: 
The EUISS has conducted a wide-ranging exercise to detect the long-term trends, factors and actors shaping the global environment of European integration - The New Global Puzzle. This Report illustrates the evolution of the key structural factors affecting change over the two decades to come - demography, the economy, energy, the environment, science and technology - and addresses some of the main questions concerning the future of the international system. The Report also includes seven regional outlooks exploring prospective developments of relevance to the European Union in Russia/Eurasia, the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, the United States, China, India and Latin America.

Many critical junctures can be envisaged over the decades to come, from energy supply shocks to environmental catastrophes, from renewed confrontation between large state powers to a systemic breakdown of the Middle East. The development of the European Union into a fully-fledged global actor requires a shared assessment of the future challenges, threats and opportunities with which it will be confronted, and of the best options to drive, as opposed to endure, change.

This Report argues that the biggest challenge confronting the EU will be to reconcile the emerging multipolar international system with a sustainable, effective multilateral order. The Report is intended as a first step in paving the way towards further reflection on the future position and role of the EU in the world. Both experts and the policy-making community, at the European and national levels, need to engage in this debate with a view to defining common, effective responses to tomorrow's challenges.
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Australia in the Asian century

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, October 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
Asia’s rise is changing the world. This is a defining feature of the 21st century—the Asian century. These developments have profound implications for people everywhere.

Asia’s extraordinary ascent has already changed the Australian economy, society and strategic environment. The scale and pace of the change still to come mean Australia is entering a truly transformative period in our history.

Within only a few years, Asia will not only be the world’s largest producer of goods and services, it will also be the world’s largest consumer of them. It is already the most populous region in the world. In the future, it will also be home to the majority of the world’s middle class.

The Asian century is an Australian opportunity. As the global centre of gravity shifts to our region, the tyranny of distance is being replaced by the prospects of proximity. Australia is located in the right place at the right time—in the Asian region in the Asian century.

For several decades, Australian businesses, exporters and the community have grown their footprint across the region. Today, for Australia, the minerals and energy boom is the most visible, but not the only, aspect of Asia’s rise. As the century unfolds, the growth in our region will impact on almost all of our economy and society.

An increasingly wealthy and mobile middle class is emerging in the region, creating new opportunities. They are demanding a diverse range of goods and services, from health and aged care to education to household goods, and tourism, banking and financial services, as well as high‑quality food products.

Beyond economic gains, there are many valuable opportunities for building stronger relationships across the region, including through closer educational, cultural and people‑to‑people links.

Our nation also has the strength that comes from a long history of engagement with countries in Asia. Australia’s relationships in our region are strong and robust, including with Asian nations like China, Japan, India, Indonesia and the Republic of Korea (South Korea). But in this Asian century we must enter a new phase of deeper and broader engagement.

This White Paper provides a roadmap for the whole of Australia—governments, business, unions, and the broader community—in this next phase. Our goal is to secure Australia as a more prosperous and resilient nation that is fully part of our region and open to the world.

Australia starts from a position of strength. Just as our region has a lot to offer us, we have a lot to offer our region. We have strong, world-leading institutions, a multicultural and highly skilled workforce, and a productive, open and resilient economy, which is one of the strongest in the world. These assets have been reinforced by a series of economic reforms and good decisions made over past decades, including Australia’s world-beating actions to avoid the worst impacts of the Global Financial Crisis.

Our strengths have long been reflected in Australia’s interaction with countries in Asia. Over the past 50 years, Australia’s trade with Asia as a share of our total trade has risen dramatically. Our financial, political and cultural links have deepened. We have strong relationships and close friendships with countries across the region.

But Australia’s success will be based on choice, not chance. In order to succeed, we must sustain the policy settings and pathways that have served us well. We need to reinforce our strong social foundations, including our national institutions, our cultural diversity and our outward-looking society.

We will need to do more than this—we all need to respond to the rapid changes occurring in our region.

Australians need to act in five key areas in order to succeed in the Asian century.

First, irrespective of how the Asian century evolves, Australia’s prosperity will come from building on our strengths. We need to reinforce the foundations of our fair society and our prosperous, open and resilient economy at home. We need to build on areas where we already perform well, in order to extend our comparative advantage. Critical to this will be ongoing reform and investment across the five pillars of productivity—skills and education, innovation, infrastructure, tax reform and regulatory reform.

Second, as a nation we must do even more to develop the capabilities that will help Australia succeed. Our greatest responsibility is to invest in our people through skills and education to drive Australia’s productivity performance and ensure that all Australians can participate and contribute. Capabilities that are particularly important for the Asian century include job‑specific skills, scientific and technical excellence, adaptability and resilience. Using creativity and design-based thinking to solve complex problems is a distinctive Australian strength that can help to meet the emerging challenges of this century. As a nation we also need to broaden and deepen our understanding of Asian cultures and languages, to become more Asia literate. These capabilities are needed to build stronger connections and partnerships across the region.

Third, Australia’s commercial success in the region requires that highly innovative, competitive Australian firms and institutions develop collaborative relationships with others in the region. Australian firms need new business models and new mindsets to operate and connect with Asian markets. We will work to make the region more open and integrated, encouraging trade, investment and partnerships. Firms will adapt their business models to seize the opportunities created in our region.

Fourth, Australia’s future is irrevocably tied to the stability and sustainable security of our diverse region. Australia has much to offer through cooperation with other nations to support sustainable security in the region. We will work to build trust and cooperation, bilaterally and through existing regional mechanisms. We will continue to support a greater role for Asian countries in a rules‑based regional and global order. Australia’s alliance with the United States and a strong US presence in Asia will support regional stability, as will China’s full participation in regional developments.

Fifth, we need to strengthen Australia’s deep and broad relationships across the region at every level. These links are social and cultural as much as they are political and economic. Improving people-to-people links can unlock large economic and social gains. While the Australian Government plays a leading role in strengthening and building relationships with partners in the region—with more intensive diplomacy across Asia—others across a broad spectrum spanning business, unions, community groups and educational and cultural institutions also play an important role. Stronger relationships will lead to more Australians having a deeper understanding of what is happening in Asia and being able to access the benefits of growth in our region. In turn, more of our neighbours in the region will know us better than they do today.

Success in the Asian century requires a whole-of-Australia effort, with businesses, unions, communities and governments being partners in a transformation as profound as any that have defined Australia throughout our history.

It is in the interests of all Australians—and therefore in the national interest—to develop the capabilities and connections that Australia will need, so that we can contribute to, and learn from, the region, and take full advantage of these opportunities.

The challenges ahead require sustained effort; Australians cannot build stronger relationships or learn new skills overnight, or even over five years, especially given the diversity of the countries in our region. Some actions can be taken immediately, but others require further conversation among communities across the nation, detailed planning and careful implementation over a generation.

Chapters 1 to 4 of the White Paper explain the extraordinary rise of Asia over recent decades and its likely future to 2025. They examine Australia’s place in Asia and our outlook to 2025. This sets the scene for a roadmap for Australia in the Asian century.

Chapters 5 to 9 set out an ambitious set of national objectives and pathways to guide Australia to 2025. Advancing and implementing these national objectives sets the agenda for taking full advantage of the Asian century, but achieving these objectives will require a concerted and coordinated effort from the entire community.
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Global Trends 2030: challenges and opportunities for Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
Abstract in English: 
This report was written for the Transatlantic Partnership for the Global Future, a project organized in cooperation with the Government of Sweden, to bring together experts from government, business, and academia to address critical questions relating emerging technologies to global challenges and explore their effects on transatlantic relations in the near- and long-term.

Over the next generation, Europe will be buffeted by waves of transformation. The reaction to the economic crisis, the rapid empowerment of individuals thanks to the growth of information technology, the reality of climate change, the diffusion of power across the globe, and demographic changes will shape the continent’s future. We are approaching an inflection point that could lead to a future of economic and political volatility and zero-sum behavior of inward-looking nationalisms; a more collaborative rules based world marked by cooperative efforts at global problem-solving; or perhaps most likely, some hybrid featuring elements of both. Tailored to address the distinct challenges Europe faces, this report draws upon the US National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds and provides further, in-depth analysis on the policy priorities and opportunities for Europe in the future.
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