Germany and Europe

554 experts from 105 countries - these are their opinions and assessments on developments in the next five years. With the Global Future Survey, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation is beginning a special project.
The results of the first interviews in early 2017 make it clear: The Federal Republic of Germany enjoys a very good reputation around the world. Furthermore, young talent increasingly want to come to Germany. European experts judge that the Federal Republic should assume more responsibility in Europe and the majority of experts rank protection of human rights and the rule of law as their country’s most pressing duty. In Europe and internationally, the greatest danger to the stability of states is seen as populistic tendencies.

SWP understands “foresight” as a scientifically based analysis of conceivable future situations and developments of international foreign and security policy. These are not forecasts, as we cannot of course predict what will occur. But we can draw attention to conceivable scenarios that – were they to come about – would be of great political relevance to Germany and the European Union.
Correspondingly, our Foresight contributions consider possible future events that we believe deserve greater political attention today. The start-ing point is that the described situations take political decision-makers by surprise. As such they present foreign policy and security challenges, regardless of the balance of crisis and opportunity they represent. Some involve putative developments in the near future for which the decisive political actors are presently inadequately prepared. Other contributions concern events much further in the future and discuss developments that would come as a great surprise seen from today’s political perspective.

The world is becoming increasingly multipolar. States that were long thought of as developing or newly industrialized countries are now an influential force in shaping international policy in an interdependent world. They are economic motors and key regional players, active beyond their own regional boundaries. They also play an increasingly important role in international decision-making processes. They are confidently taking their place on the world stage, in international relations, and are assuming ever more responsibility for global issues. In our view they are more than just emerging economies. They are new players with a voice in the conduct of world affairs.

In recent years, Germany's economy has outpaced nearly all other countries in Europe. The economy is entering its fifth year of growth in succession, employment is at a record level, state and social insurance revenues have increased, thereby significantly reducing strain on the national budget, and new borrowing by the Federal Government has been reduced to almost zero. Germany is in good shape – thanks, among other things, to a targeted reform policy undertaken in the past. Our country was able to respond decisively to the international financial crisis and resulting economic slump, as well as the debt crisis in Europe. Politicians reacted by creating the framework Germany’s citizens utilised intentionally. Collective bargaining partners safeguarded jobs by acting responsibly. Together, we were able to ensure that our country emerged stronger from the crisis. These are grounds to be confident.

Germany has never been as prosperous, secure, and free as it is today. But power and influence entail responsibility. This also means that it has to take on new responsibilities.