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Global Economic and Political Trends and Russia

 

 

Putin’s fourth term - The twilight begins?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, November 19, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The Russian electoral cycle began with parliamentary and partial local elections in September 2016, continued with presidential elections in March 2018, and ended with a series of regional elections in September 2018. The incumbent United Russia (UR) party boosted the number of seats it controls in the lower house of parliament, the Duma, by 105 compared to 2011, and despite a few local defeats in 2018, remained the dominant political force across the country.
Moreover, President Putin not only avoided any weakening of his own position but, on the contrary, arguably grew stronger as he was re-elected by almost 10 million more votes than in 2012.2 There are no serious potential challengers on the horizon and he remains the sole person who takes important domestic and foreign policy decisions. Nevertheless, several factors are gradually undercutting his standing, a process which, in turn, is likely to have future knock-on effects for Russia’s entire political edifice. What vulnerabilities does President Putin face in his fourth term in office? What are the drivers behind them? And how might these play out in the future?
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8
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The price of success, the benefit of setbacks: Alternative futures of EU-Ukraine relations

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, June 29, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This article explores the various futures of relations between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine. After distilling two major drivers we construct a future compass in order to conceive of four futures of relations between the EU and Ukraine. Our scenarios aim to challenge deep-rooted assumptions on the EU’s neighbourhood with Ukraine: How will the politico-economic challenges in the European countries influence the EU’s approach towards the East? Will more EU engagement in Ukraine contribute to enduring peace? Does peace always come with stability? Which prospects does the idea of Intermarium have? Are the pivotal transformation players in Ukraine indeed oligarchs or rather small- and medium-sized entrepreneurs? After presenting our scenarios, we propose indicators to know in the years to come, along which path future relations do develop. By unearthing surprising developments we hope to provoke innovative thoughts on Eastern Europe in times of post truth societies, confrontation between states and hybrid warfare.
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12
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Strategic global outlook 2030

Title Original Language: 
Стратегический глобальный прогноз 2030
Abstract Original Language: 
Прогноз представляет собой междисциплинарное исследование и носит вероятностный характер. Он основан на видении глобальных перспектив большой группой экспертов, которые длительное время изучают различные мировые проблемы, отдельные регионы и страны. Статистической базой работы служат прогнозные оценки ВВП, производительности труда, расходов на НИОКР и других индикаторов, полученные с помощью оригинальной методики ИМЭМО. Методология Прогноза 2030 дает возможность сосредоточить внимание на устойчивых трендах развития мировой экономики и политического мироустройства, а также на действующих в них субъектах, структурах и институтах. Главная задача – показать, какие риски и возможности ключевые мировые политико-экономические тенденции несут для России. Прогноз выполнен в двух вариантах – кратком и расширенном. В расширенном варианте охарактеризованы тенденции мирового развития и их проявления в разных сферах жизни общества – идеологии, экономике, социальных отношениях, политике. Отдельный раздел посвящен центрам и регионам мирового развития. По итогам перспектив мирового развития сформулированы риски и возможности для России. Краткий вариант дает самое общее представление о тенденциях мирового развития.
Original Language: 
Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Abstract in English: 
Strategic Global Outlook: 2030 is an interdisciplinary study prepared by the panel of experts with long experience of research in international, regional and country issues. The statistical database of the Outlook is based on predictive estimates of GDP, labor productivity, R&D investment and other indicators calculated using the original method developed in IMEMO RAN. “Outlook: 2030” offers an opportunity to focus attention on determined trends of world economy and international political order, on relevant entities, structures and institutions. Our major task was to explore risks and challenges that key global economic and political trends do represent to Russia.
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