Global Economy

Economies are complex production systems with myriad subcomponent production systems—that is, industries—from manufacturing to health care to retail. What and how these production systems produce is grounded in technology. So, as technologies change, production systems change—around the world. Today, the most important and widely shared technologies are digital information technologies that have evolved from the mainframe and mini-computing systems of the 1960s and 70s. They include an array of personal computing devices, back-office servers, IT-embedded machines, and cloud-based services that are connected or dynamically provisioned to users over private networks or the Internet. But the world is now beginning to transform into a new kind of digital system, one that will not only build on existing devices and systems, but also increasingly will incorporate emerging technologies such as sensors, robotics, and artificial intelligence as they improve in price and performance. This next digital economy will be significantly more connected (with many more things, and many more types of things networked, including in more advanced wireless, satellite, and wireline networks), more automated (as devices and systems enable more work to be done by machines), and smarter (as algorithms play increasingly important roles in sensing—and making sense of—all this).

Global growth is expected to slow to 2.9 percent in 2019. International trade and investment are moderating, trade tensions remain elevated, and financing conditions are tightening. Amid recent episodes of financial stress, growth in emerging market and developing economies has lost momentum and is projected to stall at 4.2 percent this year, with a weaker-than-expected rebound in commodity exporters accompanied by deceleration in commodity importers. Downside risks have become more acute. Financial market pressures and trade tensions could escalate, denting global activity.

Ten years ago, most observers predicted a period of smooth sailing for the world economy. Today, the world looks very different. The global economy experienced a major crisis in 2008, from which many countries have not fully recovered. Europe faces a series of major economic, financial, social, and political stresses, from outside its borders and from within. Many of the fastest-growing economies from that time, especially commodity exporters, are now experiencing serious difficulties. China is still growing at a reasonable rate, but more slowly than a few years ago. Much of the Middle East is in turmoil and its economies, with rare exceptions, are suffering. The Doha Round has proved highly disappointing, failing to meet lofty expectations. Global debt rose significantly, and job creation has stalled in many parts of the world.

An Avalanche is Coming argues that the next 50 years could see a golden age for higher education, but only if all the players in the system, from students to governments, seize the initiative and act ambitiously. If not, an avalanche of change will sweep the system away.

Deep, radical and urgent transformation is required in higher education. The biggest risk is that as a result of complacency, caution or anxiety the pace of change is too slow and the nature of change is too incremental. The models of higher education that marched triumphantly across the globe in the second half of the 20th century are broken.

This report challenges every player in the system to act boldly.

The OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO) has been published annually since 2007. It presents projections for the medium-term (to 2019) and long-term (this year extended to 2040) for oil demand and supply. The main conclusions of the WOO 2014 are that oil will continue to play a major part in satisfying world energy needs, as the global economy more than doubles in size, population grows, prosperity expands everywhere, and despite a strong reduction in energy intensity. It also illustrates the growing significance of developing countries in the energy landscape and the progressive shift towards Asia as its gravity centre. Resources are amply sufficient to meet future oil needs. The WOO also emphasizes the many uncertainties associated with the global economy and non-OPEC supply.

Welcome to the World in 2050 report, which sets out long-term global GDP growth projections. The analysis covers 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 84% of total global GDP.
This study updates PwC’s earlier analysis of global economic power shifts and forms part of its wider megatrends research programme.

Built on the previous reports drawn up under the ESPAS project to date, this study seeks to map more comprehensively the five major trends that are likely to shape the future and will need to be taken into account by the Union as it defines coherent strategic options for the next governance cycle. They include:
- A richer and older human race characterised by an expanding global middle class and greater inequalities
- A more vulnerable process of globalisation led by and economic G3
- A transformative industrial and technological revolution
- A growing nexus of climate change, energy and the competition for resources
- Changing power, increased interdependence and fragile multilateralism

"The World in 2025" group was composed of experts with a profound understanding of global challenges and developments, as well as a solid knowledge of foresight in specific countries or regions.The objectives of this group were first to assess and measure global trends over recent decades, distinguishing the different major economies and regions, including the European Union, and the main economic, geopolitical, environmental and societal relationships and inter-connections, to serve as a basis for forward projections. Secondly, the group was asked to generate and analyse alternative (even disruptive) scenarios of world trends up to 2025, based on specified assumptions about economic, political, social, environmental and technological developments, in order to assess their consequences for the EU and to examine which policy responses could be appropriate.

This paper identifies and analyses some key challenges that OECD and partner economies may face over the coming 50 years if underlying global trends relating to growth, trade, inequality and environmental pressures prevail. For example, global growth is likely to slow and become increasingly dependent on knowledge and technology, while the economic costs of environmental damages will mount. The rising economic importance of knowledge will tend to raise returns to skills, likely leading to further increases in earning inequalities within countries. While increases in pre-tax earnings do not automatically transform into rising income inequality, the ability of governments to cushion this impact may be limited, as rising trade integration and consequent rising mobility of tax bases combined with substantial fiscal pressures may hamper such efforts. The paper discusses to what extent national structural policies can address these and other interlinked challenges, but also points to the growing need for international coordination and cooperation to deal with these issues over the coming 50 years.

By 2033, the global geopolitical scene will have radically changed. Both economically and politically, western powers will have lost their prominence in favour of new regional blocks. These rising poles will compete among themselves and are likely to protect their own markets; after a while they will become sources of direct investment.