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Global Growth

Outbreak Readiness and Business Impact. Protecting Lives and Livelihoods across the Global Economy

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Outbreak Readiness and Business ImpactProtecting Lives and Livelihoods across the Global Economy
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Publication date: 
Wednesday, March 11, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The fable of the boiling frog provides a salutary lesson for business leaders. In this apocryphal story, a frog placed in cold water remains in the water as the temperature is gradually increased to boiling. In failing to notice the gradual but real change in its circumstances, the frog dooms itself to a catastrophic ending. Although frogs do not behave this way in real life, humans often do. Neurobiologically conditioned, as we are, to pay attention to stark contrasts and sudden changes, we often overlook slow moving changes in our environments that may herald disastrous consequences.The evolution of infectious disease risk is one such change. As this report explains, the number and diversity of infectious disease outbreaks are gradually but inexorably increasing, as is their capacity to send shocks through our global economic systems. As we travel, trade and communicate across an increasingly hyperconnected global economy, more and more companies will find themselves exposed to the effects of outbreaks that begin thousands of miles away.
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22
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Lending to European Households and Non-Financial Corporations: Growth and Trends

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Lending to European Households and Non-Financial Corporations: Growth and Trends
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, November 8, 2019
Abstract in English: 
The ECRI Statistical Package 2019 provides data on outstanding credit granted by monetary-financial institutions (MFIs) to households and non-financial corporations (NFCs) for the period from 1995 to 2018. Credit volumes and annual growth rates are broken down by sector and credit type to enable detailed insights into credit market developments over time and across countries. It comprises 45 countries including the EU Member States, EU candidate and EFTA countries as well as the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, Russia, Mexico and Saudi Arabia. 2018, loans to EU households and non-financial corporations(NFC) increased by 2.7%, the second consecutive year of the expansion.For the fourth year in a row, total loans in New Member States (NMS) grew faster than in old Member States (EU-15). Compared to the previous year, the total loans growth rate in 2018 accelerated from 2.2% to 2.7% in EU-15, while it slowed from 5.9% to 3.5% in NMS. Between 2017 and 2018, household loans increased by 2.8% and non-financial corporations (NFC) loans increased by2.6%. Total household loans grew most in in Slovakia (+11%), Romania (+9%) and Lithuania (+8%), while the largest contractions were registered in Cyprus (-31%), Greece (-7%) and Latvia (-5%). Finland (+19%), Hungary (+19%) and Luxembourg (+11%) were amongst the Member States with the largest growth rates in NFC loans. In turn, significant reductions were registered inalia, Russia, Mexico and Saudi Arabia.
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11
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Supply Chain Collaboration through Advanced Manufacturing Technologies

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Supply Chain Collaboration through Advanced Manufacturing Technologies
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Publication date: 
Friday, November 1, 2019
Abstract in English: 
This report is the result of a collaboration between members of the World Economic Forum Council on Advanced Manufacturing and Production. It summarizes the main findings of work conducted on the application of advanced manufacturing and digital technologies on future production and supply-chain models. The applications set out in this paper highlight the importance of collaborations across supply-chain partners as crucial to technology adoption and exploitation. Five advanced manufacturing transformations are presented that offer real-world examples of how advanced manufacturing and digital technologies are driving new supply-chain capabilities achieved through supplier-producer-user collaboration. These five transformations, while not aiming to be exhaustive, demonstrate 1) smart manufacturing, 2) flexible supply chains, 3) authentication and consumer engagement, 4) supply chain visibility and resilience, 5) remanufacturing, reduce, reuse and recycling.
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Silk Road 2.0: US Strategy toward China’s Belt and Road Initiative

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Wednesday, October 4, 2017
Abstract in English: 
The balance in Eurasia is shifting. China’s President Xi Jinping has ambitious visions for Asia, while the rest of the world reshuffles to find its place in the rapidly changing global order. Each nation guesses at the United States’ new role in the world, while China broadcasts its own role across the globe, ready to challenge those who stand in opposition to its vision. China’s impact is global: reaching from the perils of the Korean peninsula; stretching across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa; and influencing regimes along the way. During this historic moment, the importance of Asia to US interests grows all the greater.
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66
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Can long-term global growth be saved?

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Thursday, January 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The past 50 years was a period of exceptionally rapid economic expansion. Average per capita income almost tripled, and the global economy expanded sixfold in GDP terms. But the long-term growth outlook is extremely uncertain. Some observers raise the issue of challenging demographics; they talk about “secular stagnation” and express doubts about whether future growth can match its rapid upward trajectory of recent decades. Others point to the transformative impact of technology and paint a more optimistic picture. The debate about growth goes even deeper and broader than this. Many question whether—and how—growth can be sustainable and inclusive. There is a lively discussion about whether GDP is the right measure of growth. Amid such debate, it is difficult for policy makers and businesses to respond effectively.

In this report, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), which has studied growth in 30 industries in more than 20 countries over the past 25 years, reviews patterns of global growth over the past half century, focusing on the two key drivers of that growth—labor and productivity. Our broad finding is that, in the face of declining population growth that is putting pressure on the pool of available labor, the rate of GDP growth is set to be 40 percent lower than its rate over the past 50 years. To compensate fully for weakening labor growth would require productivity growth to accelerate by 80 percent from its historical rate. Drawing on five detailed sector case studies, we find that it is possible—but extremely challenging—to boost productivity growth by this margin. However, aggressive action would be needed to enhance competitiveness, harness technology, mobilize labor and further open up and integrate the world economy. Collectively, we need to engage in a frank conversation about the tough trade-offs that such action would entail.
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