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Global Population Trends

Global Trends to 2035 - Economy and Society

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This study maps and analyses current and future global trends in the fields of economics and society, covering the period to 2035. Drawing on and complementing existing literature, it summarises and analyses the findings of relevant foresight studies in relation to such global trends. It traces recent changes in the perceived trajectory of already-identified trends and identifies significant new or emerging trends. It also addresses potential policy implications of such trends for the EU.
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160
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Assessing the role of migration in European labour force growth by 2030

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This paper presents the methodology as well as the results of the joint OECD-European Commission project Migration-Demography Database: A monitoring system of the demographic impact of migration and mobility. The objective of the project is to evaluate the contribution of migration to past and future labour market dynamics across EU and OECD countries. After assessing the role of migration over the last five to 10 years in shaping the occupational and educational composition of the labour force, this project looks at the potential contribution of migration to the labour force in a range of alternative scenarios. This paper presents the results from the second part of the project: it focuses on projections over the period 2015-2030, and aims at identifying the drivers of changes in working-age population and active population in European countries, and in particular the role of migration flows.
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38
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What A Waste 2.0 : A Global Snapshot on Solid Waste Management to 2050

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, September 20, 2018
Abstract in English: 
By 2050, the world is expected to generate 3.40 billion tonnes of waste annually, increasing drastically from today’s 2.01 billion tonnes. What a Waste presents national and urban waste management data from around the world and highlights the need for urgent action. The publication provides a snapshot on how waste generation and management varies across income levels and regions, and shares good practices globally. Solid waste management is one of the most important urban services, yet it is complex and expensive, accounting for approximately 20% of municipal budgets in low-income countries and 10% of municipal budgets in high-income countries. Costly and complex waste operations must compete for funding with other priorities such as clean water and other utilities, education, and healthcare. Waste management is often managed by local authorities with limited resources and limited capacities in planning, contract management and operational monitoring. These factors make sustainable waste management a complicated proposition on the path of economic development and most low and middle-income countries and their cities are struggling to address the challenges. Waste management data is critical to creating policy and planning for the local context. Understanding how much waste is generated—especially with rapid urbanization and population growth—as well as the types of waste being generated allows for local governments to select appropriate management methods and plan for future demand. It allows governments to design a system with a suitable number of vehicles, establish efficient routes, set targets for diversion of waste, track progress, and adapt as consumption patterns change. With accurate data, governments can realistically allocate budget and land, assess relevant technologies, and consider strategic partners for service provision such as the private sector or non-governmental organizations. The publication strives to provide the latest and most realistic information available to empower citizens and governments around the world to take action and address the pressing global crisis of waste.
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Reducing poverty in Africa Realistic targets for the post-2015 MDGs and Agenda 2063

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, August 25, 2014
Abstract in English: 
The eradication of extreme poverty is a key component of the post-2015 MDG process and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. This paper uses the International Futures forecasting system to explore this goal and finds that many African states are unlikely to make this target by 2030. In addition to the use of country-level targets, this paper argues in favour of a goal that would see Africa as a whole reducing extreme poverty to below 20% by 2030 (15% using 2011 purchasing power parity), and to below 3% by 2063.
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28
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World Urbanization Prospects

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, November 1, 2014
Abstract in English: 
oday, 54 per cent of the world’s population lives in urban areas, a proportion that is expected to increase to 66 per cent by 2050. Projections show that urbanization combined with the overall growth of the world’s population could add another 2.5 billion people to urban populations by 2050, with close to 90 percent of the increase concentrated in Asia and Africa, according to a new United Nations report launched today.

The 2014 revision of the World Urbanization Prospects by UN DESA’s Population Division notes that the largest urban growth will take place in India, China and Nigeria. These three countries will account for 37 per cent of the projected growth of the world’s urban population between 2014 and 2050. By 2050, India is projected to add 404 million urban dwellers, China 292 million and Nigeria 212 million.
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32
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Assessment of global megatrends

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, March 2, 2015
Abstract in English: 
The global megatrends report assesses 11 global megatrends (GMT) of importance for Europe's environment in the long term. In assessing key drivers, trends and implications for Europe, it aims to provide an improved basis for strategic European environmental policymaking.
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140
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