Governance in Asia

The purpose of this study is to embed a long-term futures-thinking approach in current policy discussions on the future of Asia in academic, governmental, and business arenas. The objective is to explore the future of Asia given current conditions on the planet, expressed in three subthemes: 1) Asia at the carbon and energy crossroads, 2) Asia and new models of economy and governance – toward an Asian Union, and 3) Asian identity in transition and transformation.

The simplistic US-China focused narrative of the future of the Asia-Pacific does not sufficiently take into consideration other regional actors such as Japan and India, new instruments of leverage in the region, or the extent and complexity of changing relationships.

In making the situation appear simpler than reality, Asia-Pacific countries and the United States risk narrowing the aperture through which they evaluate policy choices regarding major regional challenges. At the same time, the bipolar perspective, potentially invoking Cold War-type mentalities, could exacerbate tensions rather than relieve them. Seeing US–Chinese competition as the main variable in the region could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This paper seeks to go beyond this perception by laying out the major narratives of the region’s power distribution currently in play in its four principal powers – the United States, China, India and Japan. Building on a review of the main instruments of power and the current regional trends, this paper argues that the Asia-Pacific region in 2030 will have at least four principal characteristics:
- The pace of change will increase, along with its volatility. This will result in the power distribution between the principal actors becoming more complex, finely balanced and difficult to assess clearly. The emergence of new, often disruptive, technologies, particularly in media and communications, will make control of information increasingly difficult.
- Power will become more diverse and diffuse, with more state and non-state actors having influential roles. Power is also becoming more diffuse within states, making it harder for governments to manage internal debates and to send clear messages to neighbours, particularly where nationalism is growing.
- The region will become more complex, unpredictable and thus hard to govern as a result of the rise of new actors, challenges and tools. This could lead to policy paralysis on the part of leading state actors as a swiftly changing environment and too many choices lead to greater uncertainty and, in the end, hesitancy or no action being taken.
- The region will become more interdependent, which makes the previous point troubling. Already, all states in the Asia-Pacific are increasingly dependent on one another for growth, stability and security.

An additional 3 billion Asians could enjoy living standards similar to those in Europe today, and the region could account for over half of global output by the middle of this century, says this ADB report. This potentially promising future for the region sometimes referred to as the "Asian Century" though plausible, is by no means preordained.

This study is aimed at senior policy makers, top business leaders and key opinion makers within Asia to help forge a consensus on a vision of and strategy for Asia’s potentially historic rise among the global community of nations between now and 2050. The study offers a long-term perspective of the Asia region as a whole as opposed to the more common approach that delivers a short- to medium-term perspective of selected countries, subregions or issues.