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Green Development

Beyond Force: A Realist Pathway Through the Green Transition

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, July 10, 2023
Abstract in English: 
Trying to force adoption of clean energy with subsidies, regulations, and exhortations will fail. The only realistic way to spur the green transition is to develop clean technologies that can reach effective price and performance parity with dirty ones. Then markets will adopt them at scale.
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47
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Strategic Foresight Report 2023

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 6, 2023
Abstract in English: 
The European Union is forging ahead with unprecedented action to achieve climate neutrality and sustainability. A successful transformation will limit the existential risks of climate change and the environmental crisis while strengthening the EU’s open strategic autonomy and economic security. It will be key to reinforcing Europe’s long-term competitiveness and social model, and thus its global leadership in the new, net-zero economy, also by supporting other regions in building a sustainable future. Ultimately, this will increase the wellbeing of current and future generations.
However, a successful and fair socio-economic transformation is not a given. Together with its twin, the digital transition, the green transition requires pivotal changes and trade-offs that will affect, among others, our economies and societies at an unmatched pace and scale. To succeed in this transformation, it is essential to recognise the links between the environmental, social, and economic dimensions of sustainability. This will enable Europe to pursue a forwardlooking geopolitical strategy that successfully leverages its most valuable assets – namely, its unique social market economy and its position as the largest trading block in the world.
Against this backdrop, the 2023 Strategic Foresight Report examines the key intersections between the structural trends and dynamics affecting the social and economic aspects of sustainability, to clarify the potential choices and trade-offs that the EU is likely to face in the future. Drawing on an inclusive foresight exercise and building on the three previous editions, it explores key challenges that will determine the transformation of our society and economy towards a model that respects planetary boundaries, and safeguards global competitiveness, strong social foundations, and resilience. It also investigates how pursuing inclusive wellbeing over the long-term, engaging in a pathway towards sustainability, and consolidating democracy can be the recipe for Europe to strengthen its global role.
On this basis, the report proposes ten areas for action to achieve the objectives of a socially and economically sustainable Europe with a stronger role in the world in the coming years.
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36
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2022 Strategic Foresight Report

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, June 29, 2022
Abstract in English: 
With a renewed sense of urgency linked to the rapid evolution of the geopolitical situation, the Strategic Foresight Report 2022 on ‘Twinning the green and digital transition in the new geopolitical context’ brings a forward-looking and comprehensive perspective on the interplay between the twin transitions towards 2050.
Both transitions are at the top of the EU’s political agenda and their interaction will have massive consequences for the future. While they are different in nature and each subject to specific dynamics, their twinning – i.e. their capacity to reinforce each other – deserves closer scrutiny. Better understanding these interactions is key to maximising their synergies and minimising their tensions. This is essential in the current geopolitical context where the EU aims at accelerating both green and digital transformation, ultimately strengthening the EU’s resilience and open strategic autonomy. The 2022 Strategic Foresight Report provides a future-oriented analysis of the major role played by digital technologies as well as the influence of geopolitical, economic, social and regulatory factors in the twinning. Based on their analysis, the report identifies ten key areas where action will be needed.
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36
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Carbon Risk and Resilience How Energy Transition is Changing the Prospects for Developing Countries with Fossil Fuels

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Abstract in English: 
International climate commitments and the global shift towards a decarbonized economy are challenging tried and tested models of development. This presents serious risks and opportunities for countries like Ghana, Tanzania, Guyana and Mozambique, where there are hopes that fossil fuel discoveries will transform their economies. Drawing on discussions with national governments, multilateral development banks (MDBs) and donor agencies, and a series of modelled scenarios, this paper sets out how carbon risk – defined in this paper as the economic risks associated with dependence on or exposure to high-carbon sectors – will affect developing countries with fossil fuels in the coming decades. It also makes recommendations for governments and their development partners that should enhance economic resilience and competitiveness throughout their transition.
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97
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Future visions for water and cities

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
This paper sets out 5 different visions for water management in future cities, and explores the research and innovation challenges to achieve them.
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36
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