Greenhouse Gas Emissions

This report presents the modelling work quoted in the EC communication "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020” in the EU’s Energy Union package. It examines the effects of a Baseline scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, and of a Global Mitigation scenario in line with keeping global warming below 2°C. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change. In the Baseline, emissions trigger +3.5°C global warming. In the Global Mitigation scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. A significant transformation of the energy systems and non-energy measures enable regions at all levels of income to move to a low-emission growth pathway. Sectors linked (directly or indirectly) to carbon-intensive processes adjust their investments to be competitive in a low-emission environment. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments. GDP growth rates are marginally affected in most regions by global efforts to reduce emissions. Crucially, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. Economic costs are reduced further when countries use emission permit auction revenues for other tax reductions. Delaying actions to stay below 2°C add large economic costs.

Abstract
This report examines the effects on greenhouse gases emissions and international energy markets of a Reference scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, of two scenarios where the UNFCCC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions have been included, and of a scenario in line with keeping global warming below a temperature increase of 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The report presents an updated version of the modelling work that supported DG CLIMA in the UNFCCC negotiations that resulted in the Paris Agreement of the COP21 in December 2015. In the Reference scenario, emissions trigger global warming above 3°C. In the INDC scenarios, regions adopt domestic policies that result in global changes in emissions and energy use, and would result, if pursued beyond 2030, in the long term in a global warming around 3°C; the INDCs cover 28-44% of the cumulated emissions reductions necessary to remain below a 2°C warming. In the 2°C scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. Reduction of non-CO2 emissions (34%), energy efficiency (20%) and the deployment of renewable energies (20%) are the main options contributing in the mitigation effort by 2030. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments in low-carbon and energy-efficient options. Global efforts to reduce emissions appears compatible with robust GDP growth is in most regions – in particular, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. The analysis uses the JRC-POLES and JRC-GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change.