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Growth Scenarios

Latin America and the Caribbean 2030: Future Scenarios

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, December 1, 2016
Abstract in English: 
The report finds that if the region and world move ahead as expected, 57 million more Latin Americans and Caribbean citizens will join the middle class over the fourteen-year period. Annual regional GDP growth will be 2.4 percent, slightly outperforming the US rate of 2.2 percent. But the region will face significant challenges ranging from income inequality to its demography and the impact of climate change.
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156
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The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Abstract in English: 
CEPII presents growth scenarios for 128 countries to 2050, based on a three-factor production function that includes capital, labour and energy. CEPII improves on the literature by accounting for the energy constraint through dynamic modelling of energy productivity, and departing from the assumptions of either a closed economy or full capital mobility by applying a Feldstein-Horioka-type relationship between savings and investment rates.
Results suggest that, accounting for relative price variations, China could account for 28% of the world economy in 2050, which would be much more than the United States (14%), India (12%), the European Union (11%) and Japan (3%). They suggest also that China would overtake the United States around 2025 (2035 at constant relative prices). However, in terms of standards of living, measured through GDP per capita in purchasing power parity, only China would be close to achieving convergence to the US level, and only at the end of the simulation period.
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The Great Shift: Macroeconomic projections for the world economy at the 2050 horizon

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
Are presented growth scenarios for 147 countries to 2050, based on MaGE (Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy), a three-factor production function that includes capital, labour and energy. We improve on the literature by accounting for the energy constraint through dynamic modelling of energy productivity, and departing from the assumptions of either a closed economy or full capital mobility by applying a Feldstein-Horioka-type relationship between savings and investment rates. Results suggest that, accounting for relative price variations, China could account for 33% of the world economy in 2050, which would be much more than the United States (9%), India (8%), the European Union (12%) and Japan (5%). They suggest also that China would overtake the United States around 2020 (2040 at constant relative prices). However, in terms of standards of living, measured through GDP per capita in purchasing power parity, China would still lag 10 percent behind the United States at the 2050 horizon.
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