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Labour Market

Social Dialogue and the Future of Work

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Social Dialogue and the Future of Work
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
Abstract in English: 
Social dialogue, defined as “all types of negotiation and consultation, and also the exchange of information between or among, representatives of governments, employers and workers on issues of common interest relating to economic and social policy” has been long employed as a tool in the governance of work, with the objective of delivering sustainable economic growth, social justice and the kind of high-trust work relations that are not only valuable in themselves, but that can also improve business performance and increase workers’ share in rising profitability. It includes tripartite social dialogue, collective bargaining and workplace cooperation. Collective bargaining is defined in the ILO’s Collective Bargaining Convention, 1981 (No. 154), as “all negotiations which take place between an employer, a group of employers or one or more employers’ organisations, on the one hand, and one or more workers' organisations, on the other, for: (a) determining working conditions and terms of employment; and/or (b) regulating relations between employers and workers; and/or (c) regulating relations between employer or their organisations and a workers’ organisation or workers’ organisations.” Freedom of association and the effective right to collective bargaining are the preconditions for successful social dialogue.The ILO Global Commission on the Future of Work, which examined the transformations underway in the world of work, emphasized the need for decisive action. It considered that the collective representation of workers’ and employers’ organizations through social dialogue contributes to the public good and called for public policies that promote collective representation and social dialogue. “Collective representation and social dialogue provide the institutional capabilities needed to navigate future of work transitions [....] At company level, works councils, consultation and information arrangements and worker representation on boards are all proven mechanisms to manage the challenges of change and to allow people to exercise influence over their working lives. Collective bargaining is a fundamental right and a powerful tool for economic success and social equity, not least in times of transformational change. Tripartite social dialogue allows opportunity for the partners to the social contract to consider the broader societal issues that change brings and to guide policy responses. The ILO Centenary Declaration for the Future of Work adopted by the 108th (Centenary) International Labour Conference of the ILO states that “social dialogue contributes to the overall cohesion of societies and is crucial for a well-functioning and productive economy.” Social dialogue is not only a necessary tool for managing change and addressing the transformations underway; it also helps in addressing the long-standing problems we already face. Work in the informal economy, for example, still accounts for more than 60 per cent of the world’s employed population, exceeding 90 per cent in parts of Africa and Asia. Even in the formal sector, some workers may remain trapped in jobs that offer barely subsistence-level wages and inadequate social protection in return for long hours of hard labour in dangerous conditions. In moving forward to address the challenges of the future, we also need to solve the problems we already face by strengthening social dialogue institutions and enhancing the inclusiveness of collective representation at all levels.
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20
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Jobs of Tomorrow: Mapping Opportunity in the New Economy

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Jobs of Tomorrow: Mapping Opportunity in the New Economy
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 22, 2020
Abstract in English: 
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is creating demand for millions of new jobs, with vast new opportunities for fulfill-ing people’s potential and aspirations. However, in order to turn these opportunities into reality, new sources of data and innovative approaches to understand emerging jobs and skills, as well as to empower effective and coordinated large-scale action are urgently needed across the globe. This report, Jobs of Tomorrow: Mapping Opportunity in the New Economy, takes an in-depth look into the ‘black box’ of new job creation, reviewing the shifting focus of employment to emerging professions of the future, the reasons behind it and what skills will be required by these professions. The analysis presented in this report is based on inno-vative metrics authored in partnership between the World Economic Forum’s New Metrics CoLab in its Platform for the New Economy and Society, and data scientists at three part-ner companies: Burning Glass Technologies, Coursera and LinkedIn. Through these collaborations, the report provides insights into emerging opportunities for employment across the global economy as well as unique detail regarding the skill sets needed to leverage those opportunities.Key findings include:≥Demand for both “digital” and “human” factors is driving growth in the professions of the future. Seven key professional clusters are emerging in tandem. On the one hand, these reflect the adoption of new technologies—giving rise to greater demand for green economy jobs, roles at the forefront of the data and AI economy as well as new roles in engineering, cloud computing and product development. On the other hand, emerging professions also reflect the continuing importance of human interaction in the new economy, giving rise to greater demand for care economy jobs; roles in marketing, sales and content production; as well as roles at the forefront of people and culture. Indeed, the future of work shows demand for a broad variety of skills that match these professional opportunities, inclusive of both disruptive technical skills but also specialized industry skills and core business skills.≥There are seven emerging professional clusters and 96 jobs of tomorrow within them that vary in their individual rate of growth and in the scale of job opportunities they offer in the aggregate.
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29
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Promoting Pathways to Decent Work

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Promoting Pathways to Decent Work
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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Abstract in English: 
This synthesis report presents the main findings from a multi-year research project conducted by the ILO to assess how income support and active labour market policies (ALMPs) can come together to improve the employ-ment and life trajectories of workers, particularly in emerging and developing countries. The research question was derived from an earlier ILO project entitled “Active labour market policies in Latin America and the Caribbean”, specifically from the project’s conclusion that, while ALMPs are indeed able to improve workers’ labour market prospects, the success of such interventions hinges on their accessibility. In several cases, a critical missing piece seemed to be adequate income support, which appeared to be a prerequisite for workers in the region to participate fully in activation programmes. The purpose of the present report is thus to shed light on how approaches based on a combination of income support and active support can be used to respond effectively to contemporary labour market challenges in developing and emerging economies.The report is being issued at a time when governments are faced with the challenge of creating better quality employment opportunities in a world where rapid changes are compounding long standing labour market problems. In this respect, the report shows that the policy combinations studied can make a difference, even in the challenging context of contem-porary labour markets. The new evidence presented indicates that the joint implementation of ALMPs and income support measures, if organized properly, can achieve the dual aim of protecting workers while improving their access to decent work. Multiple policy combinations are possible, and so it is important to identify the factors that determine the success (or otherwise) of such an integrated approach, particularly in emerging and developing countries, where labour ma number of methods, including a literature review, a cross-country map-ping, a comparative macroeconomic study, and two case studies based on microeconomic impact evaluations and qualitative research.
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Work for a brighter future

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
Abstract in English: 
New forces are transforming the world of work. The transitions involved call for decisive action. Countless opportunities lie ahead to improve the quality of working lives, expand choice, close the gender gap, reverse the damages wreaked by global inequality, and much more. Yet none of this will happen by itself. Without decisive action we will be heading into a world that widens existing inequalities and uncertainties. Technological advances – artificial intelligence, automation and robotics – will create new jobs, but those who lose their jobs in this transition may be the least equipped to seize the new opportunities. Today’s skills will not match the jobs of tomorrow and newly acquired skills may quickly become obsolete. The greening of our economies will create millions of jobs as we adopt sustainable practices and clean technologies but other jobs will disappear as countries scale back their carbon- and resource-intensive industries. Changes in demographics are no less significant. Expanding youth populations in some parts of the world and ageing populations in others may place pressure on labour markets and social security systems, yet in these shifts lie new possibilities to afford care and inclusive, active societies. We need to seize the opportunities presented by these transformative changes to create a brighter future and deliver economic security, equal opportunity and social justice – and ultimately reinforce the fabric of our societies.
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78
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Structural Transformation in the OECD - Digitalisation, Deindustrialisation and the Future of Work

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, September 30, 2016
Abstract in English: 
In tandem with the diffusion of computer technologies, labour markets across the OECD have undergone rapid structural transformation. In this paper, we examine i) the impact of technological change on labour market outcomes since the computer revolution of the 1980s, and ii) recent developments in digital technology – including machine learning and robotics – and their potential impacts on the future of work. While it is evident that the composition of the workforce has shifted dramatically over recent decades, in part as a result of technological change, the impacts of digitalisation on the future of jobs are far from certain. On the one hand, accumulating anecdotal evidence shows that the potential scope of automation has expanded beyond routine work, making technological change potentially increasingly labour-saving: according to recent estimates 47 percent of US jobs are susceptible to automation over the forthcoming decades. On the other hand, there is evidence suggesting that digital technologies have not created many new jobs to replace old ones: an upper bound estimate is that around 0.5 percent of the US workforce is employed in digital industries that emerged throughout the 2000s. Nevertheless, at first approximation, there is no evidence to suggest that the computer revolution so far has reduced overall demand for jobs as technologically stagnant sectors of the economy – including health care, government and personal services – continue to create vast employment opportunities. Looking forward, however, we argue that as the potential scope of automation is expanding, many sectors that have been technologically stagnant in the past are likely to become technologically progressive in the future. While we should expect a future surge in productivity as a result, the question of whether gains from increases in productivity will be widely shared depends on policy responses.
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53
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Assessing the role of migration in European labour force growth by 2030

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This paper presents the methodology as well as the results of the joint OECD-European Commission project Migration-Demography Database: A monitoring system of the demographic impact of migration and mobility. The objective of the project is to evaluate the contribution of migration to past and future labour market dynamics across EU and OECD countries. After assessing the role of migration over the last five to 10 years in shaping the occupational and educational composition of the labour force, this project looks at the potential contribution of migration to the labour force in a range of alternative scenarios. This paper presents the results from the second part of the project: it focuses on projections over the period 2015-2030, and aims at identifying the drivers of changes in working-age population and active population in European countries, and in particular the role of migration flows.
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38
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OECD Employment Outlook 2018

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, July 4, 2018
Abstract in English: 
The 2018 edition of the OECD Employment Outlook reviews labour market trends and prospects in OECD countries. Chapter 1 presents recent labour market developments. Wage growth remains sluggish due to low inflation expectations, weak productivity growth and adverse trends in low-pay jobs. Chapter 2 looks at the decline of the labour share and shows that this is partially related to the emergence of "superstar" firms, which invest massively in capital-intensive technologies. Chapter 3 investigates the role of collective bargaining institutions for labour market performance. Systems that co-ordinate wages across sectors are associated with better employment outcomes, but firm-level adjustments of sector-level agreements are sometimes required to avoid adverse effects on productivity. Chapter 4 examines the role of policy to facilitate the transition towards new jobs of workers who were dismissed for economic reasons, underlying the need of early interventions in the unemployment spell. Chapter 5 analyses jobseekers' access to unemployment benefits and shows that most jobseekers do not receive unemployment benefits and coverage has often been falling since the Great Recession. Chapter 6 investigates the reason why the gender gap in labour income increases over the working life, stressing the role of the lower professional mobility of women around childbirth.
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298
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The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, July 12, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This paper presents long-run economic projections for 46 countries, extending the short-run projections of the Spring 2018 OECD Economic Outlook. It first sets out a baseline scenario under the assumption that countries do not carry out institutional and policy reforms. This scenario is then used as a reference point to illustrate the potential impact of structural reforms in alternative scenarios, including better governance and educational attainment in the large emerging-market economies and competition-friendly product market and labour market reforms in OECD economies. Flexibility-enhancing labour market reforms not only boost living standards but, by raising the employment rate, also help alleviate fiscal pressures associated with population ageing. Another scenario illustrates the potential positive impact of linking the pensionable age to life expectancy on the participation rate of older workers, and in particular that of women. Additional scenarios illustrate the potential economic gains from raising public investment and spending more on research and development. A final ‘negative’ scenario shows how slipping back on trade liberalisation – returning to 1990 average tariff rates – might depress standards of living everywhere.
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51
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Boosting productivity and preparing for the future of work in Germany

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Publication date: 
Friday, August 17, 2018
Abstract in English: 
This paper reviews policies to strengthen Germany’s productivity growth and prepare for changes in labour markets brought about by new technologies. This paper also discusses how social protection and the bargaining framework should be reformed for the future of work. Germany enjoys a relatively high labour productivity level but productivity growth has been modest in recent years. There is room to boost productivity growth by accelerating the diffusion of new technologies throughout the economy. Vigorous entrepreneurship and innovation by small and medium enterprises are key for such technology diffusion while strong broadband and mobile networks widen the scope of data-intensive technologies that can be exploited to increase productivity. Widespread use of new technologies will bring about significant changes in skill demand and work arrangements. As in many countries, Germany saw a decline in the share of middle-skilled jobs in employment. A relatively high share of jobs is expected to be automated or undergo significant changes in task contents as a result of technological change. New technologies are also likely to increase individuals engaging in new forms of work, such as gig work intermediated by digital platforms. Such workers are less covered by public social safety nets such as unemployment insurance than regular employment.
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39
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Another lost decade? Building a skills system for the economy of the 2030s

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, July 12, 2017
Abstract in English: 
The UK economy is set to undergo significant change in the coming years. The impact of rapidly advancing technology, an ageing population and exiting the EU will leave our economy looking very different by 2030. Having an effectively functioning adult skills system will be crucial if we are to manage the impact of these trends, to shape them and to turn them to our advantage. However, there is serious cause for concern that our adult skills system is not fit for purpose today, let alone fit to face the challenges ahead. In this report, we set out an approach to adult skills that would better meet the needs of learners, employers and the economy in the future.
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94
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