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Population Ageing

ESPAS Report 2019 : Global Trends to 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, April 5, 2019
Abstract in English: 
For something as unknown as the future, it appears to have become surprisingly predictable. A Google search of ‘future 2030’ yields more than 97 million results, all more or less claiming similar things: that 2030 will see a more connected, yet fragmented world, with hazardous shifts in demography and energy, and dangerous changes in technology, environment, and politics.
The future, while overall negative, appears to be a rather certain place.
This illusion of definitiveness is created by two dynamics: first, the pessimistic tone that runs through the vast majority of foresight reports. This is a common feature when it comes to future thinking, with one study showing that all studies undertaken on the future over the last 70 years have one thing in common; pessimism. The reason for this is simple: although both optimism and pessimism are natural human dispositions, the latter is more prevalent by far. Humans are, genetically speaking, biased towards the negative – some studies even indicate that this is particularly the case for Europeans. Second, pessimism in foresight is encouraged by the grave air that surrounds it: in general, negative statements are given more attention than positive ones. That said, more pessimism in foresight does not equal greater accuracy, as one study shows.
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The Graying of The Great Powers

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, May 23, 2008
Abstract in English: 
This publication of the CSIS Global Aging Initiative, explores how population aging and population decline will constrain the ability of the United States and other developed countries to maintain national and global security over the next few decades. It also examines the security implications of emerging demographic trends in different regions of the developing world. While some political scientists and security experts argue that the forces of demography are pushing the world toward greater peace and stability, this study concludes that they pose growing security threats—and that the period of greatest danger lies just over the horizon in the 2020s.
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Regional challenges in the perspective of 2020. Regional disparities and future challenges - Demographic Challenge

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Abstract in English: 
"In this study, three main drivers of the current demographic challenge in the EU regions have been singled out and have been used in making up the sensitivity index through their main components :
- Total population change;
- Changes in labour-age population;
- Population ageing.

In a global frame of reference, Europe presents a peculiar demographic situation characterised by: i) very low or below-zero rate of population growth; ii) steady growth or initial decrease of the labour-age population; iii) ageing processes which involve the entire population as well as its significant parts, labour-age population in particular.
Four critical areas have been singled out in respect to the EU27 regions’ sensitivity to the demographic challenge by 2020:
1) The former Eastern Germany, with some extensions westwards;
2) The North-western part of Spain;
3) North-western and Central Italy, with some extensions southwards;
4) All the Bulgarian regions.

(...)Some changes in the future population dynamics are almost independent from the future macro-economic prospects and the relevant scenarios. The cohort turnover by 2020 shall modify the demographic structure and trends. Future migrations, internal or external to the EU, may change only partially those turnovers, so that their impact can be foreseen with large confidence.
The two alternative scenarios – the pessimistic one, which foresee a severe and perdurable economic recession, vs. the optimistic one, which imagines a fast recovery driven by innovation – mainly affect only the migration components of the demographic challenge. In that, much will depend on the ways and territorial distribution of the economic recession/development. Also the involvement and response of the neighbouring countries in those processes will have important returns on the foreseeable future of the European population.
Results of both scenarios confirm that European regions in 2020 will continue facing ageing and immigration. In the pessimistic scenario, ageing is more diffused and this negatively affects population change. In particular: social risks and costs of demographic change increase in more sensitive regions, while the future growth potential is limited in less sensitive regions. In the optimistic scenario, demographic constraints are moderately less stringent. In this context, more sensitive regions may experience increasing internal disparities in population ageing and agglomeration; less sensitive regions may experience lighter constrictions in WAP and in the future population growth. Both scenarios would require supporting social and economic adaptation of the different territories to demographic change, stressing the relevance of cohesion policy."
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