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Regional outlook

Global Economic Prospects - Darkening Skies

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Abstract in English: 
Global growth is expected to slow to 2.9 percent in 2019. International trade and investment are moderating, trade tensions remain elevated, and financing conditions are tightening. Amid recent episodes of financial stress, growth in emerging market and developing economies has lost momentum and is projected to stall at 4.2 percent this year, with a weaker-than-expected rebound in commodity exporters accompanied by deceleration in commodity importers. Downside risks have become more acute. Financial market pressures and trade tensions could escalate, denting global activity.
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264
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Global Economic Prospects: The Turning of the Tide?

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, June 5, 2018
Abstract in English: 
Global growth has eased but remains robust, although with downside risks. The possibility of financial market stress, escalating trade protectionism and heightened geopolitical tensions continue to cloud the outlook.
Financial market stress could arise as a result of escalating investor concerns about the creditworthiness of some emerging market and developing economies or as a byproduct of faster-than-expected normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies. Countries with elevated corporate debt, wide current account or fiscal deficits, or weak growth prospects would be vulnerable to jumps in global financing costs. In commodity-exporting economies, in particular, the expected slowdown in commodity demand growth from major emerging markets weighs on long-term growth outcomes.
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184
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