Abstract in English:
Global growth has eased but remains robust, although with downside risks. The possibility of financial market stress, escalating trade protectionism and heightened geopolitical tensions continue to cloud the outlook.
Financial market stress could arise as a result of escalating investor concerns about the creditworthiness of some emerging market and developing economies or as a byproduct of faster-than-expected normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies. Countries with elevated corporate debt, wide current account or fiscal deficits, or weak growth prospects would be vulnerable to jumps in global financing costs. In commodity-exporting economies, in particular, the expected slowdown in commodity demand growth from major emerging markets weighs on long-term growth outcomes.