Research and Development

“Creative Disruption: Technology, Strategy, and the Future of the Global Defense Industry” identifies trends in the technology, security and business environments; highlights the disruptive effects of these trends; and offers recommendations for improving the United States’ ability to harness new sources of innovation. This report is the culminating effort of Creative Disruption: The Task Force on Strategy, Technology and Global Defense Industry, a months-long research agenda, co-chaired by the Honorable William J. Lynn III and ADM James Stavridis, USN (Ret.), that included numerous working groups, interviews and surveys.

Authored by Senior Fellow and Director of the Technology and National Security Program Ben FitzGerald and Research Associate Kelley Sayler, with a foreword by Creative Disruption Task Force co-chairs Mr. Lynn and ADM Stavridis, the report highlights the "growing disconnect" between Defense Department (DOD) needs and what the existing business climate and acquisition strategy and structures are able to provide. The report concludes with strategic-level recommendations for increasing DOD’s ability to access and leverage shifting sources of innovation, emanating from both the commercial and traditional defense sectors, including both domestic and international suppliers.

Productivity is the ultimate engine of growth in the global economy. Raising productivity is therefore a fundamental challenge for countries going forward. This new OECD report on The Future of Productivity shows that we are not running out of ideas. In fact, the growth of the globally most productive firms has remained robust in the 21st century. However, the gap between those global leaders and the rest has increased over time, and especially so in the services sector. This implies that knowledge diffusion should not to be taken for granted. Future growth will largely depend on our ability to revive the diffusion machine, both within and across countries. At the same time, there is much scope to boost productivity and reduce inequality simply by more effectively allocating human talent to jobs.

This report of the Expert Group on integrated strategic foresight modelling aims to provide advice on how to develop a modelling tool that can integrate knowledge and data from forward-looking activities like foresight, in a transdisciplinary manner that could be used by policymakers. Forward-looking activities have the potential to explore issues via a systems-thinking approach. Integrating the available knowledge into such a system approach requires the development of integrated foresight methods. Such methods can support the Commission in its efforts to enhance the quality of evidence-based policymaking. These methods can proactively identify future policy areas and develop an inclusive agenda for research and innovation that reflects changing societal needs and aspirations. The report considers the current foresight structures employed in the Commission and related institutions, and reviews current ideas about foresight processes for policy development. Concurrent Design Foresight is proposed as a concept that offers the necessary breadth of approach, the ability to allow for conflicting interests and opinions, and the ability to react quickly and in response to the needs of policy development. The expert group concludes that policymakers would benefit from a platform that supports Concurrent Design Foresight, enabling real-time interaction with stakeholders through both non-numerical and numerical modelling. The expert group therefore recommends that the Commission develop such a platform