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Resources (Food, Energy, Water, Biodiversity)

OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 - The Consequences of Inaction

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, June 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 asks “What could the next four decades bring?” Based on joint modelling by the OECD and the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, it looks forward to the year 2050 to ascertain what demographic and economic trends might mean for the environment if humanity does not introduce more ambitious policies to manage natural assets with greater care.

This Outlook focuses on four areas: climate change, biodiversity, water and the health impacts of pollution. These four key environmental challenges were identified by the previous Environmental Outlook to 2030 as “Red light” issues requiring urgent attention (see Chapter 1). It concludes that the prospects are more alarming than the situation described in the previous edition, and that urgent – and holistic – action is needed now to avoid the significant costs and consequences of inaction. Policy makers must take decisions despite uncertainties. The Outlook presents achievable solutions, highlighting the linkages between different environmental issues and some of the challenges and tradeoffs in the face of competing demands.
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Study of FLAs in the area of Climate Action, Resource Efficiency and Raw materials

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Publication date: 
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
The Review of Forward-looking Activities (FLAs) undertaken in recent years at national, European and international level in this area, indicates that while the H2020 proposals on climate action, resource efficiency and raw materials aim to address a highly relevant set of themes, H2020’s proposed approach and the mechanisms for implementation need to be better specified, to ensure that an effective framework for addressing the grand societal challenges is put in place.
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24
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Food Security, Sustainable Agriculture and the Bio‐Economy

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Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Abstract in English: 
Since the food riots of 2007‐2008, global food security has been the subject of renewed attention and has become a hot topic in forward looking activities, thereby inducing a change of perspective: if food security and sustainable agriculture have always been interlinked then, since the riots, the importance of the composition of diets and economic access to food are more worthy of consideration than ever. Conversely, it is striking that in the forward looking literature, there are no studies that deal directly with the bio‐economy. The bio‐economy is addressed as a transversal concept that can be appreciated under economic and technological variables.
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Trend compendium 2030

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Abstract in English: 
The TREND COMPENDIUM 2030 is a global trend study compiled by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. It describes seven megatrends that will shape the world over the next 20 years. All trends have a broad impact on how we do business – Therefore, Roland Berger experts have identified corporate actions that companies must take today. The study also takes a look at how we will live in 2030.

Roland Berger experts first screened all relevant trend, scenario and future studies worldwide. Then they verified, analyzed and consolidated the results, using them to define seven megatrends. They next broke down the seven megatrends into 21 subtrends, looking at each from a global perspective and the viewpoints of industrialized and developing countries. Finally, they identified corporate actions that companies worldwide should consider taking today.

Following the executive summary and an introduction in chapters A and B, chapter C presents all trends and corporate actions in detail, while chapter D gives you an idea of life in 2030. In addition, every chapter presents the most important sources, organizations and indicators to help you keep track of the changes in the world as well as dig deeper into the trends presented.
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Global Trends 2030: challenges and opportunities for Europe

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
Abstract in English: 
This report was written for the Transatlantic Partnership for the Global Future, a project organized in cooperation with the Government of Sweden, to bring together experts from government, business, and academia to address critical questions relating emerging technologies to global challenges and explore their effects on transatlantic relations in the near- and long-term.

Over the next generation, Europe will be buffeted by waves of transformation. The reaction to the economic crisis, the rapid empowerment of individuals thanks to the growth of information technology, the reality of climate change, the diffusion of power across the globe, and demographic changes will shape the continent’s future. We are approaching an inflection point that could lead to a future of economic and political volatility and zero-sum behavior of inward-looking nationalisms; a more collaborative rules based world marked by cooperative efforts at global problem-solving; or perhaps most likely, some hybrid featuring elements of both. Tailored to address the distinct challenges Europe faces, this report draws upon the US National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds and provides further, in-depth analysis on the policy priorities and opportunities for Europe in the future.
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Global trends 2030: alternative worlds

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
The National Intelligence Council's (NIC) Global Trends Report engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the environment, producing a forward-looking document to aid policymakers in their long term planning on key issues of worldwide importance.Since the first report was released in 1997, the audience for each Global Trends report has expanded, generating more interest and reaching a broader audience that the one that preceded it. A new Global Trends report is published every four years following the U.S. presidential election.
Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, NIC does not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provides a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications.In-depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of Global Trends 2030. NIC leadership engaged with experts in nearly 20 countries—from think tanks, banks, government offices and business groups—to solicit reviews of the report.

The world is transforming at an unprecedented rate: it took Britain 155 years to double GDP per capita, with about 9 million people in 1870 . . . The US and Germany took between 30 and 60 years with a few tens of million people . . . but India and China are doing this at a scale and pace not seen before: 100 times the people than Britain and in one tenth the time. By 2030 Asia will be well on its way to returning to being the world’s powerhouse, just as it was before 1500.
But it is not totally back to the future: the world has been transformed in other ways. By 2030, majorities in most countries will be middle-class, not poor, which has been the condition of most people throughout human history.
Global population in urban areas is expanding quickly:
And the pace of technological change will accelerate: Absorption of new technologies by Americans has become much more rapid. The absorption rate in developing states is also quickening, allowing these states to leapfrog stages of development that advanced economies had to pass through.

This report is intended to stimulate thinking about this rapid, vast array of geopolitical, economic, and technological changes transforming our world today and their potential trajectories over the next 15-20 years. The NIC begins by identifying what it sees as the most important megatrends of our transforming world— individual empowerment, the diffusion of power to multifaceted networks and from West to East and South, demographic patterns highlighted by aging populations and exploding middle classes, and natural resource challenges. These megatrends are knowable. By themselves they point to a transformed world, but the world could transform itself in radically different ways. We are heading into uncharted waters. The NIC contends that the megatrends are interacting with six variables or game-changers that will determine what kind of transformed world we will inhabit in 2030. These game-changers—questions about the global economy, national and global governance, the nature of conflict, regional spillover, advancing technologies, and the United States’ role in the international arena—are the raw elements that could sow the seeds of global disruption or incredible advances. Based on what the NIC knows about the megatrends, and by positing the possible interactions between the megatrends and the game-changers, the NIC envisions four potential worlds. At one end of the spectrum is a Stalled Engines world in which the risks of interstate conflict increase and the US retrenches. At the other extreme is a newly rebalanced and Fused world in which social, economic, technological, and political progress is widespread. In the middle are two other
possibilities: a Gini-Out-of-the-Bottle world in which inequalities dominate or a Nonstate World in which nonstate actors flourish both for good and ill. None of these outcomes is inevitable. The future world order will be shaped by human agency as much as unfolding trends and unanticipated events. In describing potential futures, the NIC identifies inflection points as well as opportunities and risks to help readers think about strategies for influencing the world’s trajectory.
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Current State and Future Challenges of Europe’s Waters

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Friday, March 2, 2012
Abstract in English: 
This study explains the current state of Europe’s fresh waters and explores the challenges ahead. First, the state of water availability and quality are linked to climate change, energy, finance and nature protection. Then the current gaps and challenges are identified in terms of water efficiency, land-use, economic instruments, knowledge, governance, global aspects, and climate change.
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Resources Futures

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
This report is an output of the Resources Futures project, which explores the range of critical constraints and uncertainties faced globally, and the implications for future policies and political agendas. The report builds on the findings of a study prepared for the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in early 2012 assessing the impacts of natural resources on US national security by 2020, 2030 and 2040.
The spectre of resource insecurity has come back with a vengeance. The world is undergoing a period of intensified resource stress, driven in part by the scale and speed of demand growth from emerging economies and a decade of tight commodity markets. Poorly designed and short-sighted policies are also making things worse, not better. Whether or not resources are actually running out, the outlook is one of supply disruptions, volatile prices, accelerated environmental degradation and rising political tensions over resource access. Fears of resource scarcity are not new. On many occasions, higher rates of investment and improved technology have resolved the problem of the day, though often with additional environmental and social costs. With the maturation of technologies to access non-conventional gas and oil, as well as the global economic downturn, some analysts suggest that the resource boom of the past decade is coming to an end – especially in the extractive industries – and that resource related tensions will ease. The hard truth is that many of the fundamental conditions that gave rise to the tight markets in the past ten years remain. In the case of food, the world remains only one or two bad harvests away from another global crisis. Lower prices in the meantime may simply trigger another bout of resource binge, especially in the large and growing developing countries. This report focuses on the new political economy of resources. It analyses the latest global trends in the production, trade and consumption of key raw materials or intermediate products and explores how defensive and offensive moves by governments and other stakeholders are creating new fault lines on top of existing weaknesses and uncertainties. The report also proposes a series of critical interventions, including new informal dialogues involving a group of systemically significant producer and consumer countries (‘Resource 30’ or R30) to tackle resource price volatility and to improve confidence and coordination in increasingly integrated global resource markets.
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World Energy Scenarios: Composing Energy Futures to 2050

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
Abstract in English: 
The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today’s choices on tomorrow’s energy landscape.
Rather than telling policymakers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC’s World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow.
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Sustainable Development in the 21st century (SD21)

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Abstract in English: 
The "Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform" supported by the United Nations proposes reports of analyses conducted by the UN on sustainability. Many areas are covered: food and agriculture, urbanisation, land management, economy, energy,...
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