Strategic Foresight

With a renewed sense of urgency linked to the rapid evolution of the geopolitical situation, the Strategic Foresight Report 2022 on ‘Twinning the green and digital transition in the new geopolitical context’ brings a forward-looking and comprehensive perspective on the interplay between the twin transitions towards 2050.
Both transitions are at the top of the EU’s political agenda and their interaction will have massive consequences for the future. While they are different in nature and each subject to specific dynamics, their twinning – i.e. their capacity to reinforce each other – deserves closer scrutiny. Better understanding these interactions is key to maximising their synergies and minimising their tensions. This is essential in the current geopolitical context where the EU aims at accelerating both green and digital transformation, ultimately strengthening the EU’s resilience and open strategic autonomy. The 2022 Strategic Foresight Report provides a future-oriented analysis of the major role played by digital technologies as well as the influence of geopolitical, economic, social and regulatory factors in the twinning. Based on their analysis, the report identifies ten key areas where action will be needed.

The European Union is charting a strategic path to becoming the first climate-neutral continent by 2050, grasping the opportunities of the digital age, building an economy that works for people, promoting the European way of life, strengthening our unique brand of responsible global leadership, and nurturing, protecting and strengthening our democracy. Openness, as well as rules-based international and multilateral cooperation, are strategic choices. They stimulate prosperity, fairness, stability, competitiveness and dynamism within the EU and beyond. The history of the European project demonstrates the benefits of well-managed interdependence and open strategic autonomy based on shared values, cohesion, strong multilateral governance and rules-based cooperation. The pandemic has only strengthened the case for international cooperation to address global challenges. This 2021 Strategic Foresight Report presents a forward-looking and multi-disciplinary perspective on the EU’s capacity and freedom to act in the coming decades. Based on an expert-led, cross-sectoral foresight process, it presents global trends, uncertainties and choices that will shape Europe’s future. The report provides the context for possible policy responses. It builds on the 2020 Strategic Foresight Report, which introduced resilience as a new compass for EU policymaking. Section II identifies important structural global trends towards 2050 that will affect the EU’s capacity and freedom to act: climate change and other environmental challenges; digital hyperconnectivity and technological transformations; pressure on democracy and values; shifts in the global order and demography. Section III sets out ten areas in which the EU could strengthen its open strategic autonomy and global leadership. The report stresses that the EU’s future capacity and freedom to act will depend on whether the EU is able to make ambitious choices today, guided by its values and interests, across the identified policy areas.

According to a famous science fiction film, the future is what you make of it. This Chaillot Paper takes this quote from Back to the Future to heart, proposing 14 different portraits of the future for the year 2024.
These are not ‘Grey Swans’ we want to avoid – on the contrary, they are ‘White Reindeers’, positive developments we can make come true. The scenarios do not just depict a desirable future, but include pathways and concrete recommendations on how to get there. The scenarios outlined here therefore amount to more than strategic foresight since they are highly operational; in addition, they describe futures that are just beginning in 2024, but which will have wide-ranging positive repercussions in the decades beyond that date.

Foresight Conference 2019 is organised by the Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) in Singapore. The conference will be held on 25 and 26 July 2019, with the theme “Society 4.0”. This is CSF’s fifth Foresight Conference, which brings thought leaders and practitioners from different backgrounds together to explore emerging issues of global significance.
We loosely use the term “Society 4.0” to mean the society that will be and is already being shaped by the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). Just as the First Industrial Revolution mechanised production via water and steam power and consequently reshaped economic, political and social structures, the 4IR is likely to have an equal or even more disruptive impact on the texture of society.

No one can be complacent about geopolitical risks these days. The shocks and surprises of the past few years show how easily assumptions about liberal markets, international relations, conflict, and democracy can be shaken. Geopolitical volatility has become a key driver of uncertainty, and will remain one over the next few years.