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Technological innovation

Global System on the Brink: Pathways toward a New Normal

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
Abstract in English: 
“Global System on the Brink: Pathways toward a New Normal” is a joint study by the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative and the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO). Work on this joint assessment of global trends began before the onset of the recent crisis in US-Russian relations, but is more relevant than ever today as we seek to avoid a greater conflict and achieve a new normal of cooperation between Russia and the West. In keeping with previous forecasting works published by the Atlantic Council and the IMEMO, the study examines current trends and potential scenarios for global developments over the next twenty years.

Despite the rapid globalization of the past few decades, which promised cooperation and integration, the potential for major state conflict is on the rise due to deep fragmentation within and between societies. The old confrontation between capitalism and communism has given way to conflicts of moral values with nationalist, religious, and historical-psychological overtones. The worst outcome would be the emergence of a new bipolarity, pitting a group of states centered around China and Russia against the United States and some European and Asian allies. However serious the current situation, the study emphasizes the opportunities for narrowing differences.
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22
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“Just Imagine!”: RICS Strategic Foresight 2030

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Publication date: 
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Abstract in English: 
In a changing world of work and governance, there is a widespread perception that the traditional professions are under siege. Their authority and status, their exclusive access to specialised knowledge, and their right to regulate their own affairs are all seriously being challenged. No longer able to claim special privileges as disinterested, altruistic occupational groups acting detachedly in the public interest, professions are finding their traditional values and loyalties eroded.

The challenge is coming not only from a better informed and less deferential public, but also from governments sensitive to public concerns, from the media which reflect and amplify them, and from the organisations in both public and private sectors which employ their members.

Representatives of ‘old’ professions are being asked to work in entirely different ways, and ‘new’ professions are emerging all the time in areas like management, culture, meditation, counselling and the environment.

Do we still need ‘professions’ based on the 20th century model (itself a creation of the 19th century before) – self‐appointed, self‐assessed and self‐serving guardians of standards, values and social stability?
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113
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Mapping competitiveness with European data

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Friday, March 6, 2015
Abstract in English: 
Europe needs improved competitiveness to escape the current economic malaise, so it might seem surprising that there is no common European definition of competitiveness, and no consensus on how to consistently measure it.

To help address this situation, this Blueprint provides an inventory and an assessment of the data related to the measurement of competitiveness in Europe. It is intended as a handbook for researchers interested in measuring competiveness, and for policymakers interested in new and better measures of competitiveness.

MAPCOMPETE has been designed to provide an assessment of data opportunities and requirements for the comparative analysis of competitiveness in European countries at the macro and the micro level.
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194
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Delivering Tomorrow: Logistics 2050

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Publication date: 
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Abstract in English: 
This study starts with two essays laying the groundwork for the very idea of futures studies and future scenario forecasting. The first, by renowned futurist from the University of Hawaii, Professor James Allen Dator, introduces the discipline. In the second, respected futurist and business strategist Peter Schwartz describes the scenario planning context, process and application for business and policymakers.

This study aims to foster a dialogue about the future of logistics by describing a number of different scenarios, or pictures of the world, in 2050.
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184
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Global Strategic Trends out to 2040

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Publication date: 
Monday, February 1, 2010
Abstract in English: 
The document is a contribution to a growing body of knowledge and is aimed at the defence community. It seeks to build on previous editions of Global Strategic Trends with a more accessible format. It has a greater focus on defence and security issues and expands on other subjects, including resources, and the resurgence of ideology. From a comprehensive review of trends, it draws out 3 key themes: how we will adapt to the reality of a shifting climate and breakneck technological innovation (see the Human Environment); the dominance of the West in international affairs will fade and global power will become more evenly distributed between the West and the rising powers in Asia (see the Dynamics of Global Power); and finally, as society and the distribution of global power changes, the challenges to defence and security will increase (see Evolving Defence and Security Challenges). It draws lessons from contemporary events to conclude that globalisation is a more volatile process than previously envisaged and that this volatility may leave globalised systems more vulnerable to strategic shock and systemic failure. It also draws out high level global defence and security implications.
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169
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Digital Life in 2025

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Publication date: 
Tuesday, March 11, 2014
Abstract in English: 
The world is moving rapidly towards ubiquitous connectivity that will further change how and where people associate, gather and share information, and consume media. A canvassing of 2,558 experts and technology builders about where we will stand by the year 2025 finds striking patterns in their predictions. The invited respondents were identified in previous research about the future of the Internet, from those identified by the Pew Research Center’s Internet Project, and solicited through major technology-oriented listservs. They registered their answers online between November 25, 2013 and January 13, 2014.

In their responses, these experts foresee an ambient information environment where accessing the Internet will be effortless and most people will tap into it so easily it will flow through their lives “like electricity.” They predict mobile, wearable, and embedded computing will be tied together in the Internet of Things, allowing people and their surroundings to tap into artificial intelligence-enhanced cloud-based information storage and sharing. As Dan Lynch, founder of Interop and former director of computing facilities at SRI International, wrote, “The most useful impact is the ability to connect people. From that, everything flows.”
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61
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