Technology and Transport

Transportation, connectivity, accessibility, mobility – many terms point at a range of different perspectives on the phenomenon of transport. Mobility is essentially a basic human need and in economic terms transport infrastructure has to be considered as a conditio sine qua non for any kind of activity. In the past decade the so-called digital revolution has started to pervade road as well as rail transport meaning an increasing use of digital technologies in vehicle technology and – on the part of infrastructure – in traffic management, control and information systems.

The Growth Initiative working group, a working group seeking to strengthen long-term economic growth, proposes measures to boost productivity growth in Finland in the 2010s. In the long term, beyond the current economic cycle, growth in productivity will be the only driver of the nation’s average income growth or GDP per capita. In the short term, improving the employment rate is also important.
The Growth Initiative working group’s final report begins by providing a brief introduction to issues vital to productivity growth. It then presents the working group’s policy recommendations, divided under the following ten headings: 1) Science and innovation policy, 2) Education policy, 3) Life phase policy, 4) Competition policy, 5) Enterprise policy, 6) Public sector operating policy, 7) Public sector information system policy, 8) Public sector procurement policy and the general availability of publicly collected information, 9) Broadband network and intelligent transport policy and 10) Transport infrastructure policy.

The National Intelligence Council's (NIC) Global Trends Report engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the environment, producing a forward-looking document to aid policymakers in their long term planning on key issues of worldwide importance.Since the first report was released in 1997, the audience for each Global Trends report has expanded, generating more interest and reaching a broader audience that the one that preceded it. A new Global Trends report is published every four years following the U.S. presidential election.
Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, NIC does not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provides a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications.In-depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of Global Trends 2030. NIC leadership engaged with experts in nearly 20 countries—from think tanks, banks, government offices and business groups—to solicit reviews of the report.

The world is transforming at an unprecedented rate: it took Britain 155 years to double GDP per capita, with about 9 million people in 1870 . . . The US and Germany took between 30 and 60 years with a few tens of million people . . . but India and China are doing this at a scale and pace not seen before: 100 times the people than Britain and in one tenth the time. By 2030 Asia will be well on its way to returning to being the world’s powerhouse, just as it was before 1500.
But it is not totally back to the future: the world has been transformed in other ways. By 2030, majorities in most countries will be middle-class, not poor, which has been the condition of most people throughout human history.
Global population in urban areas is expanding quickly:
And the pace of technological change will accelerate: Absorption of new technologies by Americans has become much more rapid. The absorption rate in developing states is also quickening, allowing these states to leapfrog stages of development that advanced economies had to pass through.

This report is intended to stimulate thinking about this rapid, vast array of geopolitical, economic, and technological changes transforming our world today and their potential trajectories over the next 15-20 years. The NIC begins by identifying what it sees as the most important megatrends of our transforming world— individual empowerment, the diffusion of power to multifaceted networks and from West to East and South, demographic patterns highlighted by aging populations and exploding middle classes, and natural resource challenges. These megatrends are knowable. By themselves they point to a transformed world, but the world could transform itself in radically different ways. We are heading into uncharted waters. The NIC contends that the megatrends are interacting with six variables or game-changers that will determine what kind of transformed world we will inhabit in 2030. These game-changers—questions about the global economy, national and global governance, the nature of conflict, regional spillover, advancing technologies, and the United States’ role in the international arena—are the raw elements that could sow the seeds of global disruption or incredible advances. Based on what the NIC knows about the megatrends, and by positing the possible interactions between the megatrends and the game-changers, the NIC envisions four potential worlds. At one end of the spectrum is a Stalled Engines world in which the risks of interstate conflict increase and the US retrenches. At the other extreme is a newly rebalanced and Fused world in which social, economic, technological, and political progress is widespread. In the middle are two other
possibilities: a Gini-Out-of-the-Bottle world in which inequalities dominate or a Nonstate World in which nonstate actors flourish both for good and ill. None of these outcomes is inevitable. The future world order will be shaped by human agency as much as unfolding trends and unanticipated events. In describing potential futures, the NIC identifies inflection points as well as opportunities and risks to help readers think about strategies for influencing the world’s trajectory.

Since the launch of the Lisbon strategy in 2000, innovation has been regarded by EU policy-makers as key to long-term growth and a number of initiatives have been developed over the past decade. In light of profound social and economic shifts that have taken place in the meantime, however, it is now time to take a fresh look at a dynamic and renewed policy to drive innovation. This report, undertaken jointly with Ernst and Young, focuses on EU innovation initiatives and identifies changes that would lead to more responsive and dynamic innovation policy. The report asks what would such a policy look like and what needs to be changed for policy to be more effective and create growth.

Transcontinental Infrastructure Needs to 2030/50 explores the long-term opportunities and challenges facing major gateway and transport hub infrastructures -- ports, airports and major rail corridors – in the coming decades. The report uses projections and scenarios to assess the broader economic outlook and future infrastructure requirements, and examines the options for financing these, not least against the backdrop of the economic recession and financial crisis which have significantly modified the risks and potential rewards associated with major infrastructure projects. Building on numerous in-depth case studies from Europe, North America and Asia, the report offers insights into the economic prospects for these key facilities and identifies policy options for improved gateway and corridor infrastructure in the future.

The world faces unprecedented global challenges related to depleting natural resources, pollution, climate change, clean water, and poverty. These problems are directly linked to the physical characteristics of our current technology base for producing energy and material products. Deep and pervasive changes in this technology base can address these global problems at their most fundamental, physical level, by changing both the products and the means of production used by 21st century civilization. The key development is advanced, atomically precise manufacturing (APM). This report examines the potential for nanotechnology to enable deeply transformative production technologies that can be developed through a series of advances that build on current nanotechnology research.

"Megatrends" are great forces in societal development that have profound impacts on states, markets, and civil society in the now and for the years to come. They can effectively be employed as a starting point for analyzing our world. Megachange: The World in 2050 looks at these sweeping, fundamental trends that are changing the world faster than at any time in human history. Including chapters on approximately twenty of these "megatrends," each elegantly outlined by contributors from The Economist, and rich in supporting facts and graphics, the book is a compelling read as well as a valuable research and reference tool. Groups the "megatrends" that are shaping our world into several categories: People, Life and Death, Economy and Business, and Knowledge. Each trend is covered in a concise but detailed chapter written by an expert from The Economist. Packed with important information about the forces that shape our world, Megachange is a fascinating new look to the future from the experts at The Economist.