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Terrorism

Security and Public Order Report

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, February 18, 2016
Abstract in English: 
The security situation facing the Middle East is grave and appears to be trending toward greater violence and instability. The Middle East Strategy Task Force's Security and Public Order report, published in cooperation with the Brookings Institution, demonstrates that states of the region have tended to focus on traditional, external threats but the internal threats they face—from domestic unrest, state failure, and civil war—have become both more common and dangerous.

It is highly unlikely that these security problems will solve themselves or that regional states will be able to resolve them on their own. Given the ongoing importance of Middle Eastern energy resources to the international economy, the region’s central geographic location, its multiplicity of terrorist groups, and the extent of regional anger at numerous other countries for their predicament, it would be a mistake to assume that these security problems will not affect the wider world. Already the problems of terrorism and refugees generated by Middle Eastern upheaval have made many Americans, Europeans, Russians, and Middle Easterners want to take action themselves.
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48
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Munich Security Report 2015: Collapsing Order, Reluctant Guardians?

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, January 26, 2015
Abstract in English: 
this report described in the press release as "an annual digest on critical questions and important trends in the field of international security policy." The first section of the report focuses on the roles of international actors, Germany, United States, Europe, NATO, Russia, and emerging powers. The second section discusses three "hot spots"-- Ukraine, the Middle East, and Asia Pacific. The third section reviews major issues such as terrorism, energy security, and refugee crises, and the fourth section suggests additional reading and research materials.
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Africa's conflict burden in a global context

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Abstract in English: 
This paper gives a snapshot of Africa’s conflict burden within a global context based on various prominent data providers. The analysis finds that armed conflict in Africa follows the general global pattern of declining levels if measured in relation to population size and population growth. The impact of the Cold War temporarily disrupted this pattern, leading to higher levels of armed violence than could be expected during the 1970s and 1980s. Recent trends point to an increase in armed violence from around 2010, potentially reversing the gains made immediately after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Different to other regions, Africa shows a high level of so-called ‘non-state conflict’: conflict between various armed groups and factions that are fighting one another, and not the government. This is almost certainly due to weak and unconsolidated governance in many African countries. The Middle East, not Africa, is the region with the fastest growth in terrorism.
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20
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Violent Islamist extremism and terror in Africa

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Thursday, October 1, 2015
Abstract in English: 
This paper presents an overview of large-scale violence by Islamist extremists in key African countries. The paper builds on previous publications of the Institute for Security Studies on the nexus between development and conflict trends, and it seeks to provide an overview of the evolution of the associated terrorism through quantitative and contextual analysis using various large datasets. The focus is on the development and links among countries experiencing the worst of this phenomenon, especially Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Mali, Nigeria and Somalia, as well as the impact of events in the Middle East on these African countries.
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32
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Middle East 2020: Shaped By or Shaper of Global

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Monday, August 18, 2014
Abstract in English: 
At the onset of the Arab Spring, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that the foundations of the Middle East risked “sinking into the sand” of unrest and extremism. Three years later, the region is still in a period of prolonged tumult and uncertainty. A large youth bulge, poor economic prospects, and uneven development across the region presents significant challenges to a more stable Middle East, but, more positively, the next five to ten years could see a reintroduction of Iran to the international community and a new regional dynamic if the ongoing P5+1 talks reach a lasting nuclear agreement. What is certain is that the future of the Middle East will have profound effects globally and will continue to substantially influence the global political, economic, and security environment.

In his latest report, “Middle East 2020: Shaped By or Shaper of Global Trends,” Mathew Burrows, director of the Strategic Foresight Initiative in the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, addresses the possible medium- and long-term consequences of the ongoing developments in the region and the various factors driving the monumental changes. The report explores three alternative futures: one optimistic, in which relations among powerbrokers in the region turn a corner for the better, and two more pessimistic scenarios-fragmentation and decreasing state authority or the emergence of a new authoritarianism.
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20
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Strategic trends 2011 - Key developments in global affairs

Date of Editorial Board meeting: 
Publication date: 
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Abstract in English: 
Strategic Trends is an annual publication of the Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich. It offers a concise analysis of major developments in world affairs, with a primary focus on international security. Providing succinct interpretations of key trends rather than a comprehensive survey of events, Strategic Trends targets a broad audience ranging from analysts to policy-makers, the media, academics, and the interested public.
Strategic Trends 2011 is the second issue of the Strategic Trends series. It contains a brief overview as well as chapters on global power shifts and fractured geopolitics, changing regional dynamics in the Middle East, terrorism and counterterrorism ten years after 9/11, and narcotics as a growing security concern.
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