Trade

China is the EU’s second biggest agri-food exports market. It is also the second destination for the export of EU products protected by geographical indications (GI), accounting for 9% of its value, including wines, agri-food and spirits. The EU-China Agreement on the Protection of Geographical Indications, concluded in November 2019, is expected to realise higher potential for exporting EU GIs to the country since market access is now guaranteed. But the US-China Economic and Trade Agreement, signed in January 2020, has set down a couple of precautionary measures, including a consultation mechanism with China before new GIs can be recognised for protection in the Chinese market because of international trade agreements. As a result, EU GIs could be brought under tighter US scrutiny before being recognised for protection in China. Analysis reveals, however, that only a handful of EU GIs may be affected by the latter Agreement, if at all.

This book looks at how Asia has built a deep network of supply chains and is experimenting with new forms of regional trade governance.

This paper examines current trends, uncertainties and wild cards in relation to international trade and investment. It then considers implications for the European Union.
The European Union’s interest remains clear: a rules-based order is better than a transactional or winner-takes-all approach to international trade. But it is wise to plan for the worst, while hoping for the best.
The future of international trade and investment may lie somewhere between the extremes of the status quo and a reversion to protectionism. This would involve a thorough revision and rebalancing of multilateral norms, to take account of major global changes on many fronts. The EU has traditionally been a leading player in the creation of international institutions and norms. But the days when Europe could dictate the global agenda are over. Europe’s role will be increasingly a matter of seeking to influence events, rather than asserting dominance. In the coming decades, internal unity and a strong sense of purpose will be all the more important.

This report is the culmination of an 18-month study by Bruegel, Chatham House, the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and the Institute of Global Economics and Finance at The Chinese University of Hong Kong. The project was supported by a senior advisory group, with input from former ministers on both the European and Chinese sides.

The report identifies key trends and areas of potential economic collaboration in the coming decade. It cites the ‘significant opportunities’ and benefits for the two global powers to deepen their economic ties, with scope for an ‘enormous increase’ in investment in both directions. The study, however, also documents the obstacles - including significant differences between political and economic systems - which could frustrate increased collaboration, and argues that building a genuine strategic partnership will require greater effort from both EU and Chinese leaders.

Le secteur des métaux non ferreux est un fournisseur incontournable d’autres secteurs majeurs de l’industrie française. Par les innovations technologiques qu’il porte, il met également à disposition de ces secteurs aval des solutions innovantes et apparaît ainsi comme un maillon essentiel de la chaîne industrielle. Les métaux non ferreux, qu’il s’agisse des métaux traditionnels ou à haute intensité technologiques (dits high-tech), trouvent leurs applications dans de nombreux secteurs industriels comme les matériels de transport, le bâtiment, l'aéronautique, l'automobile, les matériels électriques et électroniques, les équipements domestiques et emballages ou encore les industries mécaniques. Plus particulièrement, l’utilisation des métaux high-tech (ou les alliages utilisant ces métaux) permet d’induire des caractéristiques mécaniques et physico-chimiques propices aux innovations technologiques et aux technologies de rupture. L’industrie française des métaux non ferreux a connu, durant cette dernière décennie, des évolutions marquantes de ses marchés et un contexte concurrentiel mondial renforcé qui ont conduit à de profondes recompositions de son appareil productif. Au niveau mondial, le déplacement du centre de gravité de la croissance économique vers les pays émergents et le ralentissement de la croissance de la demande lié à la crise économique ont engendré, en France et en Europe, une baisse d’activité de la quasi-totalité des secteurs consommateurs de métaux non ferreux. L’analyse prospective à l’horizon de 15-20 ans fait ressortir différents facteurs qui devraient agir sur les marchés des métaux non ferreux. En termes de volumes, les applications dans les infrastructures bénéficieront d’une croissance rapide dans les pays émergents, alors que dans les pays matures, les marchés reposeront davantage sur des remplacements, des améliorations, des adaptations à de nouveaux modes de consommation et production, avec une croissance plus faible. Concernant les biens de consommation et d’équipement des ménages, tels que l’automobile, la croissance mondiale en volume sera principalement tirée par les pays émergents. Dans les pays matures, les facteurs de croissance dépendront notamment des réponses et solutions qui pourront être apportées aux besoins de nouveaux modes de consommation et de production, tels que l’optimisation et l’efficacité des matériaux, les développements technologiques combinés à la montée en puissance des technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC), ou encore la capacité de satisfaire aux exigences environnementales. Les acteurs français disposent d’atouts et de potentialités pour réaliser des productions à haute intensité technologique et à forte valeur ajoutée. Le défi pour les acteurs français est alors d’acquérir ou de confirmer un avantage compétitif par rapport à des concurrents, y compris issus de pays émergents, prompts à progresser sur une courbe d’expérience comparable et à rivaliser sur des créneaux identiques. Dans le domaine des métaux non ferreux, la diffusion de nouvelles technologies et/ou de nouveaux matériaux bénéficie du rôle actif de quelques donneurs d’ordres, acteurs institutionnels et centres techniques. Globalement, les projets et les initiatives émergent en ordre dispersé, et une meilleure coordination au niveau national serait souhaitable. De nombreux métaux non ferreux (cuivre, aluminium, métaux précieux et high-tech) bénéficient de l’apport des TIC, et notamment de l’électronique embarquée, tous types de véhicules confondus (aéronefs, trains, automobiles, etc.).

China has set new records in the ways, means and speed with which it has expanded its outposts in the South China Sea. Neighbouring states such as Vietnam have also extended their bases on small islands and reefs, but they have done so over many years and not within a few months. The total surface area created by China has been ironically dubbed “The Great Wall of Sand” by the commander of the US Pacific Fleet. Despite Beijing’s claims to the contrary, the expansions signal an emerging militarisation of the South China Sea, whose plentiful resources and energy deposits have long been viewed as potential causes of conflicts.

The South China Sea is currently one of the world’s most contentious zones. But the situation risks becoming even worse, despite the fact that all of the region’s states depend on stable and secure sea lines of communication. At its core, this is a regional conflict about sea routes, territorial claims and resources that primarily involves ASEAN states and China. Nevertheless, it also has global repercussions. First, it concerns a “superhighway of the sea”, on which almost a third of the world’s sea trade is transported. Any impediment to the shipping traffic would have a direct impact on world trade in general but also particularly on Japan and South Korea. Second, the South China Sea is closely connected to the rivalry between Bejing and Washington because important allies and partners of the US are involved in the dispute about China’s territorial claims. Third, it is a conflict about international norms and laws that calls into question a fundamental principle of the liberal world order: “freedom of the seas” versus exclusive maritime zones. This study addresses the main reasons, the development and the implications of the island dispute as well as ways of containing it both regionally and internationally.

The Pacific Alliance–an innovative pact among Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru–has unprecedented opportunity to capitalize on political changes in Brazil and Argentina and move the region into a new era of regional integration. A new publication by the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and the Bertelsmann Foundation, released just weeks ahead of the Alliance’s Sixth Presidential Summit in Chile, says that now is the moment for the Alliance to deepen engagement with Mercosur and build on efforts to strengthen financial market, energy, trade, and foreign policy coordination.

The WTO’s 10th ministerial conference took place shortly before Christmas 2015, the first to be held in Africa. Verdicts on its outcomes range from “the death of the Doha Round” to WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo’s praise for a “historic” package. A more measured assessment reveals a mixed picture. While a number of important decisions were reached in Nairobi, most of the controversial questions were not even on the agenda. And it is less clear than ever where the talks should go from here. A consistent and ongoing shared interest in the global public good of a strong world trade system should persuade the member-states to find constructive new approaches.